NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 7: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +600 (Magic vs. Nets)

The Orlando Magic return to the floor Wednesday night against the Brooklyn Nets, and this matchup once again puts the spotlight on a familiar first basket bet. Despite a frustrating result the previous night, the setup still favors Orlando controlling the opening possession, which is key in the first scorer market.

The Magic have been excellent in the jump ball this season, winning 73% of tips. That edge should put the ball in their hands first and create an immediate scoring opportunity. When Orlando opens with the first look, Paolo Banchero remains the most logical option to finish it.

Paolo Banchero in his last four games:

27.8 PTS
10.8 REB
6.3 AST
53% FG
47% 3P

all-star him → https://t.co/BDApP40SoH pic.twitter.com/9jyzUL7R7z

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) January 6, 2026

Banchero has played with noticeable aggression since returning, scoring at least 23 points in four of his last five games while attempting 18 or more shots in each of those outings. He continues to be the focal point of the offense early in games and is not hesitant to attack right away.

At +700, the price is simply too strong to ignore. Banchero profiles as a high upside first basket play with value firmly on his side.

Dillon Brooks +650 (Suns vs. Grizzlies)

The Phoenix Suns vs Memphis Grizzlies matchup sets up nicely for another strong NBA first basket pick, and the value points toward Dillon Brooks at +650. Phoenix has been one of the most reliable jump ball teams in the league, winning 69.4% of tips this season.

DILLON BROOKS MAD MAN
pic.twitter.com/VF0D6s0DUy

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) January 5, 2026

That edge becomes even more important with Memphis struggling at center without Zach Edey, which increases the likelihood of the Suns controlling the opening possession. When Phoenix opens with the ball, Brooks is a name that deserves attention.

He is having a productive season, averaging 21.2 points per game while consistently looking to score early and often. His aggressiveness stands out, as he is averaging 17.1 field goal attempts per game and rarely shies away from taking the first good look available.

That combination of expected first possession and Brooks’ shoot first mindset creates real upside. At +650, the price offers strong value, making Brooks a sharp first basket option in this spot.

LeBron James +650 (Lakers vs. Spurs)

LeBron James stands out as one of the strongest NBA first basket picks today in San Antonio, with his +650 odds offering appealing value. James has been trending upward offensively and continues to assert himself early in games when the opportunity is there.

LEBRON JAMES WINDMILL JAM 🤯 pic.twitter.com/7mQafYoKVU

— NBA (@NBA) January 7, 2026

He has scored at least 23 points in eight of his last ten outings, a clear sign that his scoring aggression has returned. James is also taking more shots than he did earlier in the season, which increases his likelihood of being involved in the Lakers’ first offensive action. When Los Angeles controls the opening possession, he often looks to attack immediately.

The Lakers have won 67.6% of jump balls this season and should hold the edge with Victor Wembanyama expected to come off the bench once more. With the setup favoring an early Lakers possession, James is a sharp first basket play at +650.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.