NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 8: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +550 (Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves)

The Cavaliers look well positioned to strike first when they host the Timberwolves on Thursday night. Cleveland has won just over 60% of its tip offs this season, giving them a clear edge over Minnesota, which sits at 54.1%. That advantage matters in the first basket market, where possession is everything.

Jarrett Allen plays a big role here. He is one of the stronger jump ball centers in the league, and backing him to secure the opening possession puts Cleveland in control from the opening whistle. When the Cavs get the ball first, the offense typically runs through its most aggressive scorer.

Donovan Mitchell has more 3PM than Stephen Curry with a league-leading 133 3PM this season 💦 pic.twitter.com/XhdaWHK19b

— Basketball Forever (@bballforever_) January 6, 2026

That brings Donovan Mitchell squarely into focus. Mitchell is averaging 29.8 points per game while shooting 49.7% from the field. He leads Cleveland with 21 field goal attempts per game and consistently looks to attack early.

With volume, confidence, and possession on his side, Mitchell stands out as a live option to score the first basket at +550.

Keyonte George +650 (Mavericks vs. Jazz)

Keyonte George sets up as a strong option in the NBA first basket market when the Jazz take on the Mavericks. Utah has a clear edge at the opening tip, winning over 70% of its jump balls this season while Dallas sits near the bottom of the league at just 37.8%. That advantage gives the Jazz a strong chance to control the first possession.

Once Utah has the ball, George is increasingly the player to watch. He is averaging 24.3 points per game while shooting 45.2% from the field and has taken on a larger offensive role as the season has progressed. His aggression shows up in the volume, averaging 16.1 field goal attempts overall.

In NBA history, only 3 players have put together a 10-game span averaging 29+ PPG and 7+ APG on 65% true shooting before age 23:

– Michael Jordan
– Luka Doncic
– Keyonte George pic.twitter.com/kMo6QVzYah

— The Lead (@TheLeadSM) January 4, 2026

The recent trend is even more telling. Over the last six games, George has attempted at least 18 shots in five of those contests, including three games with 22 or more attempts. With Utah likely getting the first look and trusting George to attack early, +650 offers appealing value for him to score the opening bucket.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.