NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 9: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +650 (76ers vs. Magic)

Orlando profiles as a strong team to target in the NBA first basket betting market when the Magic face the 76ers on Friday night. They have been one of the best jump ball teams in the league all season, and that edge should show up immediately at the opening tip.

The Magic have won over 75% of their tip offs, ranking first in the NBA, while Philadelphia has struggled in that area at just under 55%. That gap gives Orlando a strong chance to control the first possession, which is a key factor when narrowing down first scorer options.

PAOLO BANCHERO CALLS GAME pic.twitter.com/qJjl8vDlA6

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) January 8, 2026

Paolo Banchero stands out at +650 in this spot. Since returning to the lineup, he has been aggressive and heavily involved from the opening minutes. Banchero is averaging 21.1 points per game while shooting 45.9% from the field and continues to carry a high usage rate.

He has attempted at least 18 field goals in five of his last six games, including a game winning shot against Brooklyn. With possession and volume working in his favor, Banchero is a strong first basket candidate tonight.

Michael Porter Jr. +500 (Clippers vs. Nets)

Brooklyn sets up well to control the opening possession when the Nets host the Clippers, which immediately puts the focus on the first basket market. The Nets have won 62% of their tip offs this season, a clear edge over a Clippers team sitting around 40%, making early possession likely to go Brooklyn’s way.

With that advantage, Michael Porter Jr. becomes an intriguing first scorer option. Porter Jr. is in the middle of an outstanding stretch, averaging 26.1 points per game while shooting 49.5% from the field. He has taken on a leading role offensively and has not been shy about looking for his shot early.

Michael Porter Jr. 34 PTS, 5 REB, 3 STL, 12/24 FG, 8/18 3FG, 68.3% TS vs Orlando https://t.co/TNJ5csdWul pic.twitter.com/mOl5QodTLB

— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) January 8, 2026

That aggression was on full display in his most recent outing, where he dropped 34 points on 24 field goal attempts against Orlando. It marked his fifth straight start with at least 27 points, underscoring how hot he has been.

Given Brooklyn’s edge at the tip and Porter’s scoring mindset, backing him to score the first basket at +500 makes sense.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.