NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 12: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Michael Porter Jr. +480 (Nets vs. Mavericks)

Brooklyn shapes up as the clear side to target for NBA first basket bets when the Nets host the Mavericks. Dallas has struggled badly at the opening tip, winning just 38.5% of jump balls this season, while Brooklyn has been reliable at 62.9%. That gap gives the Nets a strong chance to control the first possession and dictate the opening look.

When Brooklyn gets the ball first, Michael Porter Jr. is often the focal point. Porter has already scored the first basket six times this season and takes 20.7% of the first shots in games he starts. That combination of usage and opportunity puts him firmly on the radar at this number.

Michael Porter Jr. two-handed SLAM! pic.twitter.com/5tYirHUYwc

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) December 13, 2025

Porter also enters the matchup in excellent form. He is averaging 25.9 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and leads the Nets with 18.7 field goal attempts.

After getting a day of rest, expect him to come out aggressive. At +480, Porter is a strong first basket pick.

Luka Doncic +500 (Lakers vs. Kings)

The Lakers line up as one of the strongest sides to target for your NBA first scorer picks when they face the Kings. Sacramento has struggled badly at the opening tip, winning only around 35% of jump balls this season. That weakness contrasts sharply with Los Angeles, which has controlled nearly 70% of its tip offs and consistently puts itself in position to strike first.

With the Lakers likely securing the opening possession, Luka Doncic becomes the obvious first scorer candidate. Doncic enters the matchup averaging 33.3 points per game while shooting 45.8% from the field, and his offensive aggression has been on full display lately.

Luka with ANOTHER trick shot pic.twitter.com/HndacPVwBN

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) January 10, 2026

He has logged at least 20 field goal attempts in six of his last seven games and leads the Lakers overall with 22.5 shots per night. When Los Angeles gets the ball early, it often flows directly through him.

Given the jump ball edge and Doncic’s shot volume, backing him to score the first basket at +500 offers strong value.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.