NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 20: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Devin Booker +500 (Suns vs. 76ers)

Phoenix is set up well to control the opening possession in this matchup, which immediately boosts the outlook for a Suns first basket play. They have been one of the strongest teams in the league on the opening tip, and that edge matters heavily when targeting first scorer props.

The Suns have won 72% of their jump balls this season, placing them among the NBA leaders. Philadelphia has struggled in that same area, winning fewer than 50% of its jump balls. That gap gives Phoenix a clear path to the first offensive look and a high quality scoring chance right out of the gate.

Devin Booker doing what he does best: get buckets!

Tap to watch Book in action: https://t.co/1rmE2BEgqp pic.twitter.com/Q9UgbUNk1J

— NBA (@NBA) January 20, 2026

Devin Booker is the natural target once the Suns have the ball. He continues to play with an aggressive scoring mindset, averaging 25.3 points per game while shooting 45.5% from the field. Booker is also taking 18.2 field goal attempts per game, making him the most likely option to fire early.

At +500, Booker profiles as one of the strongest NBA first player basket bets on the board.

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Spurs vs. Rockets)

San Antonio checks all the boxes as one of the strongest first basket options on the slate, and this matchup against Houston sets up perfectly for Victor Wembanyama to make an early impact. The Spurs should control the opening tip, giving them a clear edge when it comes to scoring the first points of the game.

Houston has struggled badly in jump ball situations, winning just 40% this season. By comparison, the Spurs are winning nearly 70% of their opening tips. With Wembanyama at center court, San Antonio is in a prime position to secure the first possession and immediately look to its star big man.

VIC ON A HOT START 🔥

📺 @FanDuelSN_SW pic.twitter.com/EBoRxnZLWt

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) January 19, 2026

Wembanyama is also coming in scorching hot. He has scored 39 and 33 points in his last two games while launching 41 field goal attempts during that stretch. On the season, he leads the Spurs with 24.5 points per game on 51.6% shooting.

Wemby’s ability to score from anywhere on the floor makes him a strong first player basket bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.