NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 2: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Anthony Edwards +480 (Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies)

This matchup sets up well for Minnesota to control the opening possession, which puts the Timberwolves firmly in play for first scorer prop betting against Memphis. The Grizzlies have taken a step back at center court since Zach Edey entered the lineup and then missed time, and that has impacted their ability to consistently win the opening tip.

Memphis posted strong jump ball numbers when Edey was starting, clearing a 70% success rate. That figure has dropped to roughly 57% overall and falls below 50% in games without him. That opens the door for Minnesota to get the first look, and that is where the value appears.

Anthony Edwards' bag is elite 🎒 pic.twitter.com/dtbaloglKz

— NBA Philippines (@NBA_Philippines) February 1, 2026

If Anthony Edwards is cleared to play, he stands out as the top first basket prop bets at +480. Edwards enters averaging 29.4 points per game on 49.5% shooting and continues to play in full attack mode. He is averaging 20.5 field goal attempts per game and looks to assert himself early whenever he is on the floor.

Joel Embiid +460 (76ers vs. Clippers)

Joel Embiid shapes up as a strong first player basket option as Philadelphia takes on the Clippers. The setup favors the 76ers to open with the ball, which is always a key ingredient when targeting first scorer props. Los Angeles has struggled in jump ball situations, winning just 45.8% of tip-offs this season and frequently giving up the first shot of the game.

Philadelphia holds the edge at center court, winning 52.1% of its jump balls. That advantage puts Embiid in a prime spot to get the opening look, especially with the offense often flowing directly through him early in games. When the Sixers want to establish control, they are comfortable going straight to their star big man.

"Every single time I step on the floor, I become emotional."

Joel Embiid (29 PTS in PHI's W) on persevering through tough times and playing with joy again 🥹 pic.twitter.com/3WJEpqJC8I

— NBA (@NBA) January 28, 2026

Embiid enters the matchup in dominant form. He has attempted at least 21 field goals in four straight starts and is coming off massive performances of 37 and 40 points in his last two outings. Embiid at +460 stands out as a sharp NBA first scorer prop.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.