NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 4: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jaylen Wells +1000 (Grizzlies vs. Kings)

Memphis holds a quiet, but meaningful, edge to open this matchup, which makes the Grizzlies an interesting angle in the first player basket market against Sacramento.

The Kings have been one of the weakest jump ball teams in the league, winning just 39.2% of their tip offs this season. That struggle puts them at a disadvantage against a Memphis team that has captured 58.3% of its jump balls, giving the Grizzlies the better chance to control the first possession.

JAYLEN WELLS HEATER ON NATIONAL TV 🔥🙉
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— Grizz Lead (@Grizz_Lead) February 3, 2026

With Memphis dealing with injuries and Ja Morant out of the lineup, Jaylen Wells has seen his offensive role expand. He has been asked to do more early in games and has shown a willingness to take shots when the opportunity presents itself. Wells has already recorded five first baskets this season, an encouraging signal for this market.

He enters the game averaging 11.9 points per game on 40.6% shooting. At +1000, the long price combined makes Wells one of the best NBA first scorer prop bets.

Donovan Mitchell +400 (Cavaliers vs. Clippers)

Donovan Mitchell lines up as one of the strongest first player basket options as Cleveland faces the Clippers. The Cavaliers are positioned to control the opening possession, which is a key edge in this market and puts Mitchell in a prime spot to strike early.

Cleveland has dominated at center court this season, winning 62.7% of its jump balls. That stands in sharp contrast to the Clippers, who have captured just 44.9% of their tip offs. With that gap, the Cavaliers should be the team getting the first shot attempt, and the offense is likely to flow directly through Mitchell.

Mitchell has been a reliable early scorer all season. He has already recorded seven first baskets and continues to play in attack mode from the opening whistle. He enters the matchup averaging 28.8 points per game on 48.3% shooting while leading the team in both scoring and field goal attempts.

At +400, Mitchell offers strong value as an NBA first basket prop.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.