NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 19: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Brunson +550 (Pistons vs. Knicks)

The Pistons continue to struggle in jump ball situations and are at a clear disadvantage against the Knicks in the opening tip. Detroit has won just 41.5% of jump balls this season, compared to 56.4% for New York. That edge strongly favors the Knicks securing the first possession.

With New York likely to get the first look, Jalen Brunson profiles as an excellent first scorer candidate at +550. Brunson has been the engine of the Knicks’ offense, averaging 27.0 points per game on 47% shooting from the field. He also leads the team with 20.5 field goal attempts per game, reflecting how often the offense runs through him, especially early.

3x NBA All-Star and New York's captain!@jalenbrunson1🌟@nyknicks pic.twitter.com/vX5XjvVb7L

— NBA (@NBA) February 17, 2026

Brunson has already recorded 10 first baskets this season, cashing in 20% of his starts. With volume, efficiency, and possession edge all aligned, Brunson at +550 is a strong option for NBA first player basket betting picks today.

Wendell Carter Jr. +850 (Magic vs. Kings)

Orlando Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. stands out as one of the top NBA first scorer options in this matchup. He has quietly been one of the more profitable first basket picks this season, leading the Magic with eight first buckets and cashing in 15.7% of his starts.

Orlando frequently looks to establish its frontcourt early, and Carter has benefited from that approach. Carter is averaging 11.6 points per game on an efficient 47% shooting from the field, making him a reliable interior finisher when given early touches.

His ability to convert high-percentage looks near the rim makes him a strong candidate to open the scoring. Orlando also holds a significant edge in the jump ball. The Magic have won 71.7% of tip-offs this season, compared to just 42.9% for the Kings.

Paolo Banchero block.
Wendell Carter Jr. slam.

Two-way play to open the scoring in Celtics-Magic!

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That advantage at center court increases the likelihood of Orlando getting the first possession and running an opening set through Carter. At +850 odds, Carter offers excellent value as a first basket prop bet today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.