NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 10: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Celtics vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama stands out as one of the top NBA first scorer prop bets in this matchup. The Spurs have a strong advantage at center court, winning about 75% of their jump balls this season compared to around 40% for the Celtics.

That edge gives San Antonio a solid chance to control the opening possession. If the Spurs win the tip, which they should, Wembanyama is the clear focal point of the offense. He’s the team’s primary scoring option and has the versatility to score from anywhere on the floor.

Game starts with a BANG 💥

📺 @FanDuelSN_SW pic.twitter.com/hjMriOGQ84

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) March 6, 2026

Wembanyama is also entering the game in excellent form, scoring 27+ points in each of his last three games while recording at least 21 field goal attempts in two of those contests.

With his high usage and San Antonio’s advantage in jump balls, +400 odds present solid value for a first basket prop bet.

Devin Booker +500 (Suns vs. Bucks)

Devin Booker is a strong candidate for the first basket when the Suns take on the Bucks. Phoenix holds a significant advantage in the opening tip, winning about 72% of jump balls this season compared to just 27% for Milwaukee. That edge gives the Suns a great chance to control the first possession and create the opening scoring opportunity.

Booker has returned to the lineup in aggressive form and continues to be the focal point of Phoenix’s offense. He’s averaging 24.9 points per game on 45% shooting this season and has been getting plenty of opportunities since returning to the starting lineup.

Devin Booker vs. Charlotte Hornets 3/8/2026

30 PTS | 7-18 FG | W 111-99 pic.twitter.com/DizT9LWWhZ

— NBA Shooting Audit (@NBAShotAudit) March 9, 2026

He has also been active early in games, already leading the Suns with eight first baskets in 17.4% of his starts. Booker has taken at least 19 shots in each game since returning, showing that he’s not hesitant to attack.

With Phoenix likely to secure the opening possession and Booker serving as the team’s primary scorer, +500 odds present solid value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.