NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 11: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Brandon Ingram +425 (Raptors vs. Pelicans)

Brandon Ingram stands out as one of the better first basket prop options in this matchup between the Raptors and Pelicans. New Orleans has struggled badly in jump balls this season, winning only 18.2% of tip-offs.

Toronto hasn’t been dominant either, but their roughly 40% success rate still gives them more than double the Pelicans’ chances of securing the opening possession.

If the Raptors win the tip, Ingram is the most likely player to get the first scoring opportunity. He leads Toronto with 12 first baskets this season, showing a tendency to be involved right away in games.

Brandon Ingram was extraordinary in Toronto's home victory 🔥

33 PTS
6 REB
6 AST
5 3PM pic.twitter.com/OuuBSQoX80

— NBA (@NBA) February 6, 2026

Ingram is also the Raptors’ primary offensive weapon, averaging 21.5 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field. He’s heavily involved in the offense with 17.2 field goal attempts per game, making him one of the most aggressive scoring options on the floor.

With Toronto holding the edge in the jump ball and Ingram leading the team offensively, +425 odds provide solid value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

Nikola Jokic +500 (Rockets vs. Nuggets)

Nikola Jokic is a strong candidate to score the first basket when the Nuggets face the Rockets. Denver holds the edge in the opening tip, winning 55.4% of jump balls this season compared to 37.5% for Houston, giving the Nuggets a solid chance to control the first possession.

If Denver secures the opening tip, Jokic is the most logical option to take the first shot. As the focal point of the Nuggets’ offense, he has the versatility to score both inside and from the perimeter.

Nikola Jokic after you play 23.9 seconds of PERFECT defense 😭 pic.twitter.com/omJJltVYtF

— BrickCenter (@BrickCenter_) February 26, 2026

Jokic is having another dominant season, averaging 28.9 points per game on an efficient 57.5% shooting from the field. His ability to create offense from anywhere on the floor makes him a prime candidate to get the first points on the board.

With Denver likely to control the opening possession and Jokic leading the offense, +500 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.