NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 18: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Nic Claxton +875 (Thunder vs. Nets)

Nic Claxton offers excellent value in the first basket market when the Brooklyn Nets take on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Brooklyn has the edge in the opening tip, winning 60.3% of jump balls compared to 50.7% for OKC, giving them a strong chance to control the first possession. That’s key for a first basket bet, especially when targeting a player who thrives early in offensive sets.

There’s also a potential opportunity boost if Michael Porter Jr. remains out of the lineup. With a primary scorer possibly sidelined, the Nets may lean more on interior looks to start the game.

🤯 CLAX ATTACK 🤯 pic.twitter.com/TEcEo1x2Bb

— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) March 17, 2026

Claxton fits that role perfectly. He’s a strong presence in the paint and often gets early touches near the rim. He’s averaging 12 points per game on an efficient 57.4% shooting, making him a high-percentage scoring option when given the chance.

At +875 odds, this is a high-value play with strong upside selection for your NBA first scorer bets today.

Luka Doncic +450 (Lakers vs. Rockets)

Luka Dončić is a strong play in the first basket market as the Los Angeles Lakers face the Houston Rockets.

The Lakers hold a clear edge in the opening tip, winning 63.2% of jump balls compared to just 38.8% for Houston, putting them in a great position to control the first possession. That advantage is crucial for targeting a first scorer.

If Los Angeles gets the ball first, Dončić is the most likely player to take charge offensively. He continues to be one of the most aggressive scorers in the league.

The Luka Doncic show 🎬 https://t.co/IODpUhYSbT pic.twitter.com/qGnLlQZkz9

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) March 17, 2026

Dončić enters averaging 32.9 points per game on 47.4% shooting, including 36.4% from three-point range. He’s also maintaining a high volume, with 22.4 field goal attempts per game and 24+ attempts in seven straight starts, showing just how involved he is early and often.

With the Lakers likely to get the first look and Dončić leading the offense, +460 odds offer strong value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.