NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 19: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Desmond Bane +500 (Thunder vs. Nets)

Desmond Bane is a strong option in the first basket market as the Orlando Magic take on the Charlotte Hornets.

Orlando holds a clear edge at center court, winning 70.6% of jump balls this season compared to 44.9% for Charlotte. That advantage puts the Magic in a great position to control the opening possession and generate the first scoring opportunity.

If Orlando gets the ball first, Bane is a prime candidate to capitalize. He’s been in strong form, averaging 20.5 points per game on 48.9% shooting while staying aggressive on the offensive end.

Desmond Bane triple off the Goga Bitadze screen pic.twitter.com/K7r4DDNmWb

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) March 18, 2026

Bane has also been consistent recently, scoring 18 points in six of his last seven games, showing both rhythm and confidence as a scorer.

With the Magic likely to secure the opening tip and Bane trending upward offensively, +500 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

Victor Wembanyama +450 (Suns vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama continues to shine as one of the top options in the first basket market when the San Antonio Spurs face the Phoenix Suns.

San Antonio holds a major advantage in the opening tip thanks to Wembanyama’s presence. The Spurs lead the league with a 73.9% jump ball win rate, and while Phoenix has been solid, Wemby’s size and reach give San Antonio the upper hand to secure the first possession.

That early edge is critical, especially with Wembanyama’s versatility on offense. He can score from anywhere on the floor and is often involved right away when the Spurs get the ball first.

.@wemby getting us started ‼️

📺 @FanDuelSN_SW pic.twitter.com/SjCTm4hVq3

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) March 18, 2026

He enters this matchup averaging 24.2 points per game on 50.6% shooting, and his recent form has been impressive. Wembanyama has recorded 27+ points in five of his last seven games while attempting 20+ field goals in three of his last four.

In elite form and a strong chance at the first possession, +450 odds make this a high-value first basket play.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.