NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 1: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +375 (Spurs vs. Warriors)

Victor Wembanyama continues to dominate the first basket market as the San Antonio Spurs face the Golden State Warriors.

San Antonio has a massive advantage at the opening tip, leading the NBA with a 76% jump ball win rate, while Golden State sits at just 45.3%. That gap gives the Spurs a very strong chance to control the first possession.

With that early edge, Wembanyama becomes the clear favorite to open the scoring. He’s been one of the most consistent first basket hitters and continues to anchor the Spurs’ offense.

Wemby up to 41 PTS and 16 REB after this MONSTROUS stuff 💥 https://t.co/W0ryec3rvX pic.twitter.com/GbkjsGd4JV

— NBA (@NBA) March 31, 2026

He’s averaging 24.5 points per game on 50.4% shooting and is coming off a dominant 41-point performance, showing elite form. His ability to score from anywhere makes him extremely tough to defend on the opening possession.

In strong jump ball positioning and red-hot scoring form, +375 odds still provide solid value for a first basket prop bet.

Desmond Bane +500 (Hawks vs. Magic)

Desmond Bane is a strong pick for NBA first scorer as the Orlando Magic face the Atlanta Hawks.

Orlando holds a clear edge in the opening tip, winning 70.7% of jump balls compared to 51.3% for Atlanta, putting them in a great position to control the first possession.

Desmond Bane 💰 pic.twitter.com/98uDx44W3D

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) March 21, 2026

If the Magic get the ball first, which they should, Bane is a prime candidate to capitalize. He’s been consistent and aggressive offensively, averaging 20.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting.

His recent form is also solid, with 17+ points in five straight games, showing he’s in rhythm and actively involved early in matchups.

With Orlando likely to secure the first look and Bane leading the charge, +500 odds offer strong value for a first basket prop bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.