NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 9: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Bam Adebayo +500 (Heat vs. Raptors)

As one of tonight’s best NBA first basket props, Bam Adebayo stands out as a strong option as the Miami Heat face the Toronto Raptors at +500 odds.

Miami holds the edge at the opening tip, winning 60% of jump balls compared to 43% for Toronto, which should give them the first possession and an early shot opportunity.

If the Heat control the tip, Adebayo is in a prime position to capitalize. He has been one of the most consistent first scorers on the team, recording 14 first baskets in 20.6% of his starts this season. That level of success in this market makes him a reliable target.

Wilt Chamberlain
Kobe Bryant
Bam Adebayo

Only these three players have eclipsed the 80-point mark in a game in NBA history 🔥 pic.twitter.com/NuwfovR8ar

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) March 11, 2026

Adebayo is averaging 20 points per game on 43.6% shooting, and his versatility as a scorer allows him to attack from multiple areas, whether it’s inside or facing up. That flexibility makes him especially dangerous on scripted opening possessions. Since scoring 83 points, he’s settled back in closer to his season average.

Jalen Brunson +500 (Celtics vs. Knicks)

Jalen Brunson is one of the best NBA first basket picks as the New York Knicks clash with the Boston Celtics at +500 odds.

New York holds a slight but meaningful edge in the jump ball, winning 51.9% of tip-offs compared to 41.8% for Boston. That advantage should give the Knicks a good chance to control the opening possession and generate the first scoring opportunity.

If the Knicks get that first look, Brunson is the clear focal point. He leads the team with 26 points per game on 46.4% shooting, consistently serving as the primary offensive initiator. His ability to create his own shot makes him especially dangerous early in games.

JALEN. BRUNSON. 😤 pic.twitter.com/0P5vtxfoF4

— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) April 7, 2026

Brunson is also coming in with momentum after a 30-point performance against Atlanta, showing he’s in rhythm and ready to attack. With high usage and confidence, he’s a natural candidate to take the first shot if New York wins the tip.

Given the jump ball edge and Brunson’s scoring role, he is one of the best NBA first scorer bets today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.