NBA Sixth Man of the Year 2025-26 Betting Preview: Odds, Favorites, Predictions

Naz Reid (+200)

Naz Reid at +200 presents some real concerns despite his obvious offensive talent. The Timberwolves’ big man, who won this award in 2024, can absolutely light it up from deep. He’s one of those rare centers who genuinely stretches the floor. His defensive limitations don’t create a significant problem for this award. If you look at the most recent winners (Payton Pritchard, Reid, Tyler Herro, Jordan Clarkson), none are considered stoppers, outside of potentially Malcolm Brogdon in 2023.

Rebounds vs Points among bench players:

Naz Reid leads the league in both Points (774) and Rebounds (356) from the bench.

On his way to his second 6MOY.#NazReid pic.twitter.com/BPNYjR8btZ

— Wolf Wise Statistics (@WolfWiseStats) February 16, 2026

The odds suggest he’s a frontrunner, but that implied probability feels generous given the competition. His offensive numbers will turn heads, no question. The three-point shooting creates highlight-reel moments that voters remember.

At +190, you’re not getting enough cushion for these concerns. The market seems enamored with his scoring punch. But I think there is better value elsewhere in this field.

Keldon Johnson (+325)

Keldon Johnson at +325 presents some intriguing appeal. The Spurs’ rotation remains fluid, and through 56 games (he has played 54), Johnson hasn’t started a single game. He is firmly entrenched as their first player off the bench.

Keldon Johnson’s mural gets an upgrade; Spurs’ Wembanyama wants to play for Team France this summerhttps://t.co/9JsZbZUGku #porvida #nba #gospursgo #SanAntonio pic.twitter.com/p8wWoXeWBk

— JeffGSpursKENS5 (@JeffGSpursZone) February 18, 2026

His shooting ability is legitimate, and his defensive improvements show real commitment on that end. However, the playmaking concerns can’t be ignored for this award. Johnson’s assist numbers (1.4 per game) haven’t shown growth, but the other facets of his game make the seventh-year forward worthy of solid minutes.

I took Johnson at +400 on January 12th, and I’m still confident in his NBA Sixth Man of the Year odds at +325.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+500)

Jaquez at +500 presents some real concerns despite his expanded role with Miami’s second unit. He’s essentially running the offense when he’s on the floor and showing impressive playmaking chops, but there’s a glaring weakness that could derail any Sixth Man campaign: his three-point shooting is genuinely terrible.

The Heat’s system might mask some offensive limitations, and Jaquez brings more of a facilitator’s game, which doesn’t usually capture the attention this award demands. His passing vision is impressive, but that’s not what wins you hardware in this category.

The +500 NBA Sixth Man odds suggest some market optimism about his expanded role, but the shooting deficiency creates a ceiling that’s difficult to ignore. There are safer bets in this market with more traditional scoring profiles that align better with what voters actually reward.

Ajay Mitchell (+1000)

Ajay Mitchell at +1000 presents some interesting options. His all-around contributions are legitimate. Mitchell’s three-point shooting remains a question mark, and in today’s NBA, a bench guard who can’t consistently stretch the floor faces an uphill battle for recognition. But the biggest issue may be the fact that he’s on an OKC juggernaut. Mitchell is very good, but how much does he actually impact winning?

The +1000 odds suggest the market already doubts his candidacy, and that skepticism feels justified. Mitchell looks like a speculative flier at best. The NBA Sixth Man betting value simply isn’t compelling enough to overlook some concerns about opportunity and statistical profile.

Reed Sheppard (+1400)

Reed Sheppard at +1400 represents great value for a rookie with his offensive toolkit, but I do have questions. The Kentucky product possesses elite shooting mechanics that translate immediately to NBA spacing, and that’s precisely what contending teams crave from their bench units. His ability to knock down shots from deep without needing plays designed for him makes him an instant-impact reserve, which is precisely what Sixth Man voters reward.

However, the defensive concerns are legitimate. Sheppard’s frame makes him vulnerable when targeted by bigger guards, and NBA offenses will test that weakness early. The Sixth Man award historically favors offensive firepower over defensive prowess. But he’s probably the worst defender on this list by a decent margin.

The odds suggest he’s a longshot, but the 6.7% implied probability undervalues his offensive contributions. Most young players struggle to find consistent minutes, but shooters always find the floor. He’s carved out 22-25 minutes per game in a microwave scorer role, these odds become extremely generous. However, I just can’t look past his defense, even though offense is more important to the voters.

Anthony Black (+1600)

Anthony Black at +1600 presents a fundamentally flawed value proposition for Sixth Man of the Year, despite some terrific strides. The Magic guard has shown scoring improvement in his sophomore campaign, and his defensive versatility might genuinely be elite among this year’s candidates. The problem? He’s started far too many games already this season (33 going into the All-Star break), which essentially disqualifies him from serious consideration.

Even if Black transitions to a full-time reserve role moving forward, he’s already dug himself into a hole that’s nearly impossible to escape. The narrative is relevant for this award, and his split role undermines any compelling story.

The +1600 odds might look tempting given his two-way impact, but this is a classic case where the betting market hasn’t fully accounted for eligibility concerns.