2025 New Jersey Governor Election Odds: Can Republicans Get the Upset?

While there’s no obvious candidate that New Jersey loves, Sherrill is in the driver’s seat. The current U.S. Representative for New Jersey’s 11th congressional district doesn’t have much competition, at least according to the odds.

In my opinion, Sherrill is probably the safest choice among the candidates. She has largely stayed out of the spotlight in a negative light and doesn’t come with much baggage. Avoiding controversies and scandals is quite an accomplishment in American politics today!

Additionally, Sherill’s time serving the country as a Navy helicopter pilot will score points with the public. She also has experience as a federal prosecutor and has worked in Congress in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2019. During her time in D.C., Sherrill has staunchly opposed President Donald Trump.

🔥Rep. Mikie Sherrill came in swinging:

“You don’t give targeting information. You don’t give time. You put people in danger!”

A Navy Vet and former Russian policy officer, she’s not mincing words—Trump’s team endangered American lives, and they know it. pic.twitter.com/a130QYWI3t

— VoteVets (@votevets) March 26, 2025

Kamala Harris took New Jersey with 52% of the vote, so any candidate who fires shots at Trump will have a favorable standing in the state. Moreover, Sherill should appeal to moderate and progressive Democrats alike. It is no surprise to me that Sherrill has a wide gap between her and the rest of the candidates in the latest polls.

According to the latest May 2025 Emerson College Polling, Sherill is the only candidate with support above 20%. She has 28% support, while undecided follows at 24%. Fulop, Baraka, and Josh Gottheimer all share 11% favorability, so Sherill remains in a good spot.

The Mayor of Jersey City has thrown his hat into the governor’s race and has gotten some support from the public. If you drive around New Jersey, it doesn’t take long to spot a Fulop sign on a lawn.

NJ governor candidate Steven Fulop said experience as Jersey City mayor sets him up for success https://t.co/l2qThKdHmy pic.twitter.com/9TnN9LJeeA

— Eyewitness News (@ABC7NY) June 4, 2025

Nevertheless, the betting odds for New Jersey governor do not favor Fulop, nor do the polls. While he is the second choice among bettors, Fulop’s price to win is still well behind the frontrunner. Even before Sherrill announced that she was running for governor, she had the upper hand, so Fulop has always been playing from behind from the get-go.

Fulop has experience as a mayor but has never worked in Washington. His platform is primarily based on improving the transportation system and making life more affordable for its residents. For instance, he has plans to reform Stay NJ, a property tax relief program for seniors.

It all sounds good, and Fulop may not be the worst option, but he doesn’t have the star power that Sherrill’s name carries in the Democratic Party. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fulop is closer in November than the polls suggest right now, though he has an uphill battle. Fulop has also been in the crosshairs for a series of corruption reports, which he responded to as ‘old news’.

Baraka has received a bump in the arena of public opinion from Democrats after being arrested at an ICE detention center, but is he still worth a look for your New Jersey governor race predictions? With just a 6.7% implied probability to represent the Democrats in government, Baraka is close to needing a Hail Mary to win.

The updated New Jersey governor primary odds give the edge to Fulop as the second-best choice. However, I am inclined to believe that he isn’t as far behind Fulop as this gap currently shows in the markets.

Baraka entered the race as the Mayor of Newark — a position he’s held since 2014. He has won re-election in Newark twice in 2018, and most recently in 2022. While polls in March indicated that Baraka led in favorability ratings, he’s been unable to keep pace with Sherrill.

In any event, Baraka has Newark residents on his side, as they have rallied behind Baraka’s campaign recently. Per Fairleigh Dickinson University, 51% of Newark residents intend to vote for Baraka in the gubernatorial primary.

JUST IN: Newark Mayor Ras Baraka has filed a lawsuit against interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, Alina Habba, accusing her of malicious prosecution over his arrest outside an ICE detention facility last month. https://t.co/OixJKGU3Nq pic.twitter.com/U6OeYzZC8F

— ABC News (@ABC) June 3, 2025

He is well-liked among Democrats and should do better at the polls than his odds to win the NJ primary suggest. And, again, Baraka’s arrest outside an immigration detention site in protest of Trump’s policies will work in his favor with some voters, but that bump should fade shortly.

If you are interested in betting on an underdog, I recommend including Baraka for your New Jersey governor race predictions! He’s the only upset pick I see having a chance against Sherrill.

The U.S. Representative for New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District is up against it in the gubernatorial primary! Gottheimer’s odds have him at +2500, or just a 3.8% implied probability.

I can get behind this price because Gottheimer doesn’t have much of a chance for governor. If voters aren’t supporting Sherrill, they’re most likely siding with Baraka or Fulop. Even voters who might like Gottheimer could look elsewhere because confidence is low for him to win.

Although Gottheimer works in Washington like Sherrill, he is not anything close to a complete package or has the same likability factor. The Democratic Party does not view Gottheimer as any type of contender, and neither do I. He doesn’t have the charisma to hold his own weight.

He might believe otherwise, but his political ad doesn’t do him any favors, either. The ad, which is largely AI-generated, depicts Gottheimer getting into a boxing ring and fighting Trump. He is leaning on beating Trump and lowering property taxes, though the other candidates are heavily invested in the same policies.

Gottheimer is an easy bet to toss out because he effectively has a lower than 3.8% chance of winning the primary.

Trump’s top pick for New Jersey governor is the leading choice for Republican voters. Jack Ciatarelli received Trump’s endorsement in mid-May, and the polls have reacted favorably for the 63-year-old.

THIS IS A BIG DEAL: Donald Trump has endorsed Jack Ciattarelli for Governor of New Jersey. pic.twitter.com/EHiN8aZKsG

— David Wildstein (@wildstein) May 12, 2025

Ciattarelli was the frontrunner before Trump’s endorsement, which only catapulted him further into the driver’s seat. The former member of the New Jersey General Assembly ran for governor in the 2021 election against Murphy.

Murphy ultimately won the election with a 51.2% share of the vote. Despite the loss, Ciattarelli made a race out of it versus his Democratic foe. Trump’s support will help him among GOP voters, as we’ve seen in the latest polls.

As of late May, 44% of respondents favored Ciattarelli as the Republican candidate. This affords Ciattarelli a clear advantage over his closest rival, and the race is likely already over.

Spaeda, a former radio show host and chairman of the College Republican National Committee, is the likely second choice for Republicans. I’m not counting him out completely, but polls have him well behind Ciattarelli.

With Spaeda 31 points behind the favorite, it appears like an impossible chore to make a comeback. Nevertheless, Republicans who don’t care much for Trump are likely going to put a vote in for Spadea.

Spadea argues that he is looking to take New Jersey back from “the liberals and weak Republicans that continue to destroy it and save our state…”. He’s an alternate choice with a strong voice, but it’s going to take a lot to sway voters.

I am a populist, common sense conservative who is going to focus on parental rights, small business, and ending the sanctuary state.

We’re going to start empowering cops, teachers, nurses, firefighters, middle class and working class people. @FoxFriendsFirst pic.twitter.com/iJvBrZWoyi

— Bill Spadea (@BillSpadea) June 19, 2024

Trump supporters who were on the fence will lean towards Ciattarelli now, so Spadea needs Ciattarelli to trip up or face a major scandal to surge ahead.

If you are looking for the most experienced Republican, then 72-year-old Jon Bramnick is your guy. He was elected to the New Jersey Senate in 2022. Before landing in the Senate, Bramnick was a mainstay in the New Jersey General Assembly from 2003 to 2022.

Like the rest of the candidates, including Democrats, Bramnick is determined to lower the high property tax rates in the state. Additionally, the moderate Republican seeks to simplify income tax brackets and lower the tax burden on New Jersey’s citizens.

I said it at the debate, and I’ll say it again: I can win for New Jersey — because I stand for the core principles of traditional conservatism and the Republican Party. Small government, lower taxes, and law and order. If you want to win in November, it starts with your vote on… pic.twitter.com/o2T4hPwVF3

— Jon Bramnick (@JonBramnick2025) May 21, 2025

Similar to other GOP members, Bramnick wants to toughen laws and be harder on criminals, including canceling “catch and release” policies. Bramnick’s blueprint for New Jersey will resonate with Republican voters, but I don’t like his chances in the debate. The way I see it, he doesn’t stand much of a chance.

If Bramnick doesn’t stand much of a chance, then Justin Barbera can just about pack it in. The 44-year-old businessman worked hard through a grassroots effort to secure 2,500 signatures to get on the ballot.

Barbera is a devout Christian and is a strong believer in Trump’s policies, most notably regarding immigration. He claims that President Trump is the best president he’s ever seen in his lifetime. Nevertheless, that doesn’t count for much without an endorsement from the president.

If I were setting the New Jersey governor betting odds for the Republican primary, I’d have Barbera and Mario Kranjac way down at the bottom. +50,000 to +100,000 odds may not be high enough because the other candidates would have to step down on June 10.

Like Barbera, Kranjac comes from outside of politics as an attorney and businessman. He was the first Republican to be elected as the Mayor of Englewood Cliffs, which should be commended.

Kranjac is a dedicated “MAGA” supporter who stands in defense of Trump’s mandates. But, like Barbera, Kranjac doesn’t have the President of the United States’ support.