The 2026 Six Nations heads into Super Saturday with just three teams still in the hunt, and France leading the outright winner odds. The only two teams that could catch them are Ireland and Scotland, but they are chasing a huge upset.
In this betting preview, I’ll break down the latest winner odds, assess each contender from a betting perspective, and share my best Rugby Six Nations Championship predictions.
Rugby Six Nations Championship 2026 Odds
Here are the Rugby Six Nations winner odds as of mid-March:
With just one match left on the schedule, France (-450) have pulled away as heavy favorites to lift the Six Nations trophy. At -450, the Les Bleus hold a 81.8% implied probability at top sports betting sites.
They opened the event as a -150 favorite, and their implied odds have shifted by roughly 20%. England, who entered the Six Nations with the second-shortest price at +240, are now effectively out of the championship hunt.
England’s campaign has been miserable, but Ireland (+700) and Scotland (+850) still have a path to the title. Scotland began the tournament at +1200 in the outright markets, so they’ve clearly outperformed expectations.
Ireland, meanwhile, were expected to be right in the mix on the final weekend. Their price has drifted from +450 to +700, cutting their implied chance from 18.2% to 12.5%. Even so, the Irish are not out of the picture just yet.
You can find updated Six Nations Championship betting odds at Lucky Rebel by navigating to All Sports > Rugby Union > Six Nations.
Six Nations Rugby Championship Favorites
Three squads remain in contention for the championship crown in Europe. Let’s focus on the finalists before delving into my top 2026 Six Nations picks:
France (-450)
France’s Grand Slam hopes may have been dashed in a wild 50-40 loss to Scotland this past weekend, but they remain in control of their own destiny. There are still multiple paths for Les Bleus to secure back-to-back Six Nations titles.
Thanks to a dominant point differential, France is firmly in the driver’s seat heading into Super Saturday. They sit at 3-0-1 with a massive +79 differential. The next closest team, Scotland, is way back at +21.
France can clinch the championship with a win over England and a bonus point for scoring four or more tries. The bonus point is more of a mathematical safety net than a necessity, it’s highly likely France won’t need it, but it would all but guarantee the trophy.
That incredible point differential gives France a huge edge, but they still can’t afford to look past England. After a disappointing 1-0-3 campaign with a modest +4 differential, England will be desperate to finish on a high note and play spoiler. If France bounces back and cleans up the defensive issues that plagued them against Scotland, they’ll be in a strong position.
The Scotland match was an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance from France, especially in their structure and organization. That should be corrected on Super Saturday, when they’ll expect to be far more focused and disciplined.
England may struggle to contain Louis Bielle-Biarrey, who leads the competition with five tries and has been a constant threat with the ball in hand.
Louis Bielle-Biarrey is on an absolute roll!
The electric @FranceRugby winger has scored in every @SixNationsRugby Championship match he’s played in this year, extending a remarkable try-scoring streak that also includes five international games before that.
Is he the most… pic.twitter.com/FwyA6Qxvyf
— All Things Rugby (@AllThingsRugbyX) March 8, 2026
Two Frenchmen are also leading the Six Nations in assists, with Matthieu Jalibert and Bielle-Biarrey combining for nine. Thomas Ramos has also been outstanding from the tee, knocking over 21 successful goals, and leading in meters made with 349.
Despite their stumble against Scotland, France has otherwise been in command throughout the tournament, highlighted by a 36-14 dismantling of Ireland. If they bring the right intensity and execution against England, expect Les Bleus to finish the job and lift the Six Nations trophy once again.
Ireland (+700)
Ireland is clinging to faint hope of completing an incredible comeback in the Six Nations title race. After opening the tournament with a disappointing 36-14 loss to France, they’ve responded impressively with three straight victories to keep their chances alive.
Even so, their backs are firmly against the wall. For a seventh Six Nations crown, and a third since 2023, Ireland now needs help from their oldest rivals. Irish fans don’t often find themselves cheering for England, but this weekend they’ll need exactly that: an English upset over France.
Even if that happens, Ireland must beat Scotland with a bonus point. It’s not impossible to win the title, but the odds are stacked against the Irish, and they no longer control their own destiny. Still, they come into Super Saturday with plenty of confidence and are deserved favorites against Scotland.
Ireland enters the final round at 3-0-1 with a point differential of +16, a long way behind France’s +79.
Dan Sheehan gets Ireland Bonus point try in the opening minute of the second half.#ENGvIRE #GuinnessM6N #SixNationsRugby #WearTheRose #TeamOfUs pic.twitter.com/u9UP86pulf
— Sin Bin Rugby. (@sin_bin_rugby) February 21, 2026
Key contributors have driven Ireland’s resurgence. Jamie Osborne and Jack Conan have combined for five tries, with Osborne in a five-way tie for the fourth most. Since that early defeat to France, Ireland’s defense has also tightened up significantly.
Over their last three matches against Italy, England, and Wales, Ireland has allowed an average of just 17 points per game. Their 42-21 win over England was a defining performance, but now they need that same England side to do them a favor.
Ireland is priced at +700 to win the Six Nations. Those odds reflect how much needs to go right for them, but they could appeal as a small flier or a hedge against an existing France position rather than a primary play.
Scotland (+850)
Heading into the Six Nations at +1200 to win the tournament, Scotland had every reason to feel optimistic. Now, with Super Saturday up next, the Scots enter their final match against Ireland at 3-0-1 with a +21 point differential.
That record actually has Scotland ahead of Ireland in the current standings, but the real problem is the gap to France, who remain in the driver’s seat. Like Ireland, Scotland needs help: they’ll be rooting for England to upset France. On top of that, they’ll need to pull off a small upset of their own against Ireland to claim a first-ever Six Nations title.
Scotland certainly won’t be lacking belief after a wild 50-40 win over France. That offensive outburst came against a French side that has been one of the most reliable defensive units in the competition, making Scotland’s 50-point showing all the more impressive.
Wings Darcy Graham and Kyle Steyn have been true lynchpins for Scotland throughout the tournament. Graham and Steyn are tied in fourth with three tries each, while Steyn leads the Six Nations with 20 defenders beaten. Rory Darge has been excellent on the defensive side, leading all players in turnovers won.
An incredible set move sees Kyle Steyn cutting France’s defence to pieces!#GuinnessM6N #SCOvFRA pic.twitter.com/Sr0gValROY
— All Things Rugby (@AllThingsRugbyX) March 7, 2026
The question now is how much more can they give. After such an emotional and physically demanding victory over France, how much will Scotland have left in the tank for Ireland? Steyn will be playing injured, while starting locks Gregor Brown and Scott Cummings are doubtful.
I’m not convinced they can replicate that performance on short turnaround, and that could leave the Scots up against it versus a focused Irish side.
2026 Rugby Six Nations Championship Prediction and Betting Pick
France must regain their focus after a wild 50-40 loss to Scotland. They took their eyes off the prize and coughed up a likely Grand Slam with that poor defensive effort. Even so, I expect France to tighten up at the back and avoid giving England many easy tries.
England, on the other hand, comes into Super Saturday with limited motivation. A win here only opens the door for Ireland to potentially steal the Six Nations title on the final day. That’s hardly the strongest incentive for England to go all-out to upset France.
I backed France at -150 as my pre-tournament Rugby Six Nations pick. While the current price of -450 doesn’t offer much betting value, I’m sticking with my original position and riding France all the way to the finish line.
Where to Bet on the Rugby Six Nations Championship?
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