Is There A Gag Order On Trump And Will He Violate It?

As Donald Trump prepares for the 2024 Presidential Election, the former president’s legal issues continue to mount. As of late October 2023, Trump has been charged in four criminal cases. He faces an incredible 91 criminal counts and 100 years in prison if convicted on all counts¹.

While being sentenced to 100 years, or even stepping foot in a jail cell is unlikely, Trump’s legal team has a lot of work ahead of them. Nevertheless, this hasn’t stopped Trump from being the favored Republican candidate for the 2024 Presidential Election.

Due to Trump’s demonstrative and impetuous nature, judges presiding over his criminal cases have attempted to keep him from openly discussing the cases publicly.

Did Trump get a gag order?

We are examining the current status of Trump’s gag order and Trump gag order odds at the best political betting sites. Currently, BetOnline is offering a slew of political odds, including odds on Trump’s being fined for violating a gag order.

Is There A Gag Order On Trump?

There have been two gag orders issued against Trump. However, one gag order stemming from the federal election interference case in Washington, D.C., was recently paused.

Trump Gag Order For Federal Election Interference Case

On October 17, 2023, federal judge Tanya Chutkan imposed a gag order after finding that his constant remarks regarding the case presented “grave threats to the integrity of these proceedings.”

he Trump gag order prevented the former president from making public comments about potential witnesses, the defense counsel, and any of the court staffers.

Last week, Chutkan rescinded the gag order after Trump’s request for a stay of the order. The pause on Trump’s gag order is pending for an appeal of restrictions on his speech.

On Thursday, October 26, special counsel Jack Smith asked for the judge to reimpose the gag order on Trump. Smith references Trump’s recent Truth Social post targeting Trump’s former White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows².

Trump Gag Order For New York Civil Fraud Trial

The second Trump gag order is in relation to his $250 million civil fraud trial in New York. The trial stems from Trump and his associates fraudulently inflating the price of his assets to receive favorable loans.

This gag order is currently active, and Trump was recently fined for breaching the rules of the imposed order. Judge Arthur Engoron levied a $10,000 fine against Trump after he testified at his civil fraud trial in New York.

Trump attacked Engoron’s law clerk Allison Greenfield in court, prompting the judge to fine Trump $10,000 for breaching his gag order. On Tuesday, October 24, Trump was quoted by the Associated Press on the stand as stating³:

“This judge is a very partisan judge, with a person who is very partisan sitting alongside him – perhaps even much more partisan than he is.” Trump continued, “I think she’s very biased against us. I think that we’ve made that very clear.”

On Wednesday, Engoron ruled that Trump’s comments had violated the gag order that he imposed on the former president. This is the second gag order that Trump has been found in violation of after he was fined $5,000 on Friday, October 20, 2023.

According to Politico, the $5,000 fine was in relation to a social media post on Trump’s presidential campaign website. The Truth Social post, directed at Greenfield, was not removed from the website as ordered by the court⁴.

Trump Judge Gag Order Odds and Will He Have More Violations?

The Donald Trump gag order request from judges has resulted in online betting sites releasing betting odds on the ordeal.

Yes, you can bet on whether Trump will breach more gag orders and the size of the subsequent fines. We are doing our best to accurately determine what the future holds for Trump’s gag orders.

There is a good chance of a gag order for Trump being reimposed on the federal election interference case. If this occurs, he will once again have two gag orders to concern himself with.

Currently, Trump has not received gag orders for his other criminal trials. However, a protective order was imposed on Trump in the Manhattan case for “hush money” payments during his 2016 presidential campaign.

Additionally, Trump received bond conditions for the Georgia election interference case and federal documents case at Mar-a-Lago⁵.

At the moment, the following Trump gag order prop bets only pertain to the New York civil fraud case, but that could change. The federal election interference gag order could be reimposed, while the judges in his other cases could institute gag orders as they see fit in the future.

Next Fine For Violating Gag Order

On Wednesday, judge Engoron fined Trump for violating his gag order a second time in less than a month. Engoron issued a warning after he levied the fine against Trump: “Don’t do it again, or it will be worse”⁶.

After his second violation of the court order, Engoron doubled Trump’s fine from $5,000 to $10,000. With the Over-Under for Trump’s next gag order fine at $20,000.05, BetOnline oddsmakers are essentially asking whether the next fine will be more than double.

Engoron sent Trump a stern warning after the $10,000 fine. Considering that he doubled his fine for his second violation, you have to believe that the third fine will be more than double.

It doesn’t seem prudent to issue a warning only to keep following the same trend. If Engoron remains on the same course, the next Trump fine will be for $20,000, thus a win on the Under.

However, we foresee Engoron aiming to send a much stronger message for the next gag order violation. As far as a potential fine from another judge is concerned, they’ll likely take into consideration that a $5,000 and $10,000 fine had no impact on Trump’s actions.

Expect Trump’s next fine to be ratcheted up from $10,000. A jump from $10,000 to $25,000 or $30,000 appears like the more accurate move. The next gag order for Trump is likely to exceed $20,000.05.

Total Fines For Gag Order Violations

How much will Trump be fined in total for his gag order violations?

There is no time limit on this prop bet at BetOnline. In other words, this bet will go well into 2024 and likely into 2025. And then, there will undoubtedly be appeals and more time for him to speak.

The bet does not expire at the end of this year or in 2024. With this in mind, the bet will be settled after Trump’s legal matters conclude. That leaves a lot of time for Trump to continue saying whatever comes to his mind on social media.

As soon as the gag order was paused for the federal election interference case, he immediately set his sights on Meadows in a post on Truth Social. It’s highly unlikely that he will stop calling out his legal opponents due to court-imposed gag orders.

Trump and his campaign team likely view the positives outweighing the negatives. Speaking to his voter base with this hardline approach against what he perceives as bogus charges could work in his favor at the polls. Trump’s supporters don’t want to see him back down to the courts.

Conversely, if Trump were to back off and be quiet, it might be seen as him being weak or afraid of the “system”. It would go against his whole persona. Just think of the fines he can draw at his campaign rallies in 2024.

Furthermore, Trump is probably not scared of a judge throwing him into jail for these violations. Trump will continue to test the legal system until he receives the maximum punishment, which is questionable to happen.

Keep in mind that he’s already up to $15,000 in total fines in less than a month of Engoron’s gag order being in place. This should take off exponentially as we approach the 2024 Presidential Election. As long as the gag orders remain in place, the fines will pile up next year.

Currently, Trump is -800 to win the Republican nomination. Trump has an implied probability of 88.9 percent of getting the nod to represent Republicans in the 2024 Presidential Election. At +125, he has the best odds to become the next President of the United States in 2024.

He isn’t going anywhere, with plenty of days ahead of him to attract more gag order fines. Trump likely views the fines as simply the cost of doing business and a slap on the wrist. Don’t expect the gag orders to silence Trump in the foreseeable future.