UFC 318 Odds and Predictions – Can Poirier Retire as “BMF” Champ Against Holloway?

• Max Holloway (-135)
• Dustin Poirier (+115)

The first two matches in this rivalry have gone to Poirier (30-9, 1 NC), who would love nothing more than to ride off into the sunset in his home state with a win. “The Diamond” beat Holloway (26-8) by submission in Holloway’s UFC debut way back in February 2012. Poirier then beat Holloway by unanimous decision in April 2019. However, Holloway moved up to lightweight for that fight.

Holloway has the “BMF” title, but he’s looking at this fight as a stepping stone to a championship fight at 155 pounds. While Poirier is retiring, he’s still sixth in the UFC lightweight rankings. It also doesn’t help Holloway that the new lightweight champion is Ilia Topuria, who knocked out Holloway in October 2024 to defend the featherweight title.

I’d definitely take a look at the round odds, as I think this will go the distance. Both men are tough customers and will want to put on a show. The UFC 318 odds for this match are pretty close, and I think they could swing closer to Poirier by fight night.

But I’m going with Holloway at -135 in my UFC 318 predictions as he is looking to move up the ranks at 155 pounds. While Poirier might not win, he’d be satisfied with an exciting fight in his final match.

Kopylov (14-3) is looking to move up the ladder at 185 pounds, where he is 14^th in the rankings, one spot behind Costa (14-4). The Russian is coming off a thrilling head-kick win over Chris Curtis in January 2025, although it might have been a bad stoppage by the referee.

Posting a HEADKICK KO EVERYDAY for one year! (212/365)

Roman Kopylov vs Chris Curtis#UFC #MMATwitter #UFC313 pic.twitter.com/B42kiC0nuA

— 🎱The MMA Mark🎱 (@TheMMA8Ball_) March 9, 2025

Costa might be the best example of wasted potential in the UFC. He scored knockouts in four of his first five fights, and went toe-to-toe with Yoel Romero in an incredible fight. But Costa got embarrassed by then-champion Israel Adesanya, and it has been all downhill from there. The Brazilian is 1-4 in his last five fights, and it’s strange that he’s even still in the rankings.

Again, keep an eye out for round odds, as this one isn’t going the distance. Both men struggle with cardio issues, and will come out swinging for the fences. But I’m leaning towards Kopylov at -250, because I have no confidence that the best version of Costa will show up.

I’m taking Roman Kopylov at these UFC 318 odds before they move, but I’ll be watching for props here to find a bigger return.

I was disappointed with Pitbull’s (36-8) UFC debut in April, when he lost to Yair Rodriguez by unanimous decision. It was strange to see Pitbull, who accomplished so much in Bellator, look tentative. But many fighters have struggled under the bright lights of the UFC in their first match. I’m expecting the Pitbull we saw in Bellator, a much more aggressive fighter with finishing power in striking, and on the mat.

That suits Ige (19-9) just fine, as he has finished 12 of his 19 wins with seven knockouts, and five submission wins. He has never been finished, but Ige has lost three of his last five fights.

This should have been Pitbull’s first fight as Rodriguez is ranked third in the featherweight listings. That was too much, too soon for the Bellator veteran, and I think he’ll be more comfortable against Ige, who is 11^th in the rankings.