The WNBA MVP odds for 2025 suggested one player had been running away with the award, but the prices have flipped! Will Napheesa Collier catch A’ja Wilson after leading the MVP race for most of the season?
I’ll sift through the 2025 WNBA MVP odds, looking at the favorite (Wilson) and the contender (Collier). I’ll then give you my WNBA MVP prediction at the end of the article!
WNBA 2025 MVP Betting Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson (Las Vegas) | -700 |
| Napheesa Collier (Minnesota) | +375 |
We’ve seen a massive change in the 2025 WNBA MVP odds at WNBA betting sites over the last two weeks! On August 28, Napheesa Collier (+375) was favored at -750 to win her first MVP, while A’ja Wilson (-700) was priced at +450. Collier had an implied win probability of 88.2%, while Wilson’s was 18.2%.
Now, Wilson is the runaway favorite with an implied probability of 87.5%, while Collier comes in at 21%! This is as big of late-season swing as I’ve seen in any MVP race, in any sport! But can Wilson ride a brilliant last month to her fourth MVP in the last six seasons?
You can bet on these WNBA MVP odds at Lucky Rebel by heading to Sports > Basketball > WNBA Futures > WNBA Awards.
The Favorite: A’ja Wilson (-700)
- Age: 28
- Year: 8th
- Team: Las Vegas Aces
- Position: Forward
Wilson has been spectacular over the last five weeks, which started with a 111-58 loss to Collier’s Lynx on August 2. Wilson’s Las Vegas Aces haven’t lost a game since, and the three-time MVP has been red-hot, averaging 26.3 points during the 15-game winning streak and having double-digit rebounds in nine of those games.
A’ja Wilson’s on top 👏 top 👏 top 👏
1st in Total Points
1st in Points Per Game
1st in Win Shares
1st in Offensive Win Shares
1st in Defensive Win Shares
1st in Blocks Per Game
1st in Player Efficiency Rating
1st in Total Rebounds
1st in Defensive Rebounds
1st in 30+ Point… pic.twitter.com/6ycwUJVrU2— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) September 10, 2025
Wilson is first in the league in scoring (23.4 points), second in rebounds (9.9), first in blocks (2.3), and sixth in steals (1.6). Her 3.0 assists are a career high, and Wilson is shooting 50.4% from the field, while also shooting 39.3% from three-point land, although she only takes 1.4 per game. The former South Carolina Gamecock is also shooting 85.4% from three-point land.
The Aces’ resurgence also offers a narrative for Wilson, who doesn’t need one as the best player in the world. But it doesn’t hurt, and that’s a major reason why the WNBA MVP odds have swung towards Wilson, who has been great all season, not just over the last five weeks.
Wilson also outplayed Collier in a 97-87 win for the Aces at home on September 5. Collier had her worst game since returning from injury, scoring 12 points and adding six rebounds. Meanwhile, Wilson went for 31 points and eight boards.
However, how much does Collier’s injury play into this?
The Contender: Napheesa Collier (+375)
- Age: 28
- Year: 7th
- Team: Minnesota Lynx
- Position: Forward
That Lynx win on August 2 was also considerable for Collier, who hurt her ankle in the third quarter and missed three weeks of action. Before that, Collier was running away with the WNBA MVP odds, and the Lynx were the best team in the league, which they still are.
🚨 Napheesa Collier became just the third player in WNBA history to record 700+ points, 50+ steals, and 50+ blocks in a single season!
She achieved this feat in only 32 games, making her the second-fastest to do so—trailing only A’ja Wilson, who reached the mark in 26 games… pic.twitter.com/Py33IYF1Gp
— WNBA (@WNBA) September 7, 2025
Collier is second in the league in scoring (23.0 points), ninth in rebounds (7.4), third in steals (1.6), and fifth in blocks (1.6). The former UConn Husky is also shooting 52.6% from the field, and 90.6% from the free-throw line. She is also shooting 39.2% from beyond the arc on 3.8 attempts per game, and could be the second WNBA player to join the 50/40/90 club after Elena Delle Donne in 2019. She won the MVP that year.
Collier’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time, but you can still make the case that she deserves the MVP award. Even with the injury, she dominated the league for the first three months. Collier has also been excellent since she returned from the ankle injury, but she happened to have her worst game in a spotlight matchup against Wilson.
But the Lynx are still favored in the WNBA championship odds, and they’re minus-money in the odds now. Much of that has to do with Collier, who led the Lynx to a big enough cushion that her injury didn’t matter.
WNBA 2025 MVP Predictions and Betting Pick
Honestly, you could go either way for this WNBA MVP prediction. I don’t think Wilson should be favored by this much, and I think it should be more like -130 for her, at most. But this should be an extremely close race.
I’m going to follow the larger return and put Napheesa Collier in my WNBA MVP predictions because at +375, I think she has a genuine chance to win. Wilson has been phenomenal over the last few weeks and should be in the mix. But Collier was the star of the first three months, and her team has the league’s best record.
I think it’s a close call, but Napheesa Collier gets my vote for 2025 WNBA MVP, and at this price, it’s a fantastic value bet!
Where To Bet On The WNBA MVP?
Lucky Rebel is The Sports Geek’s top pick for wagering on the WNBA MVP in 2025. The site has an extensive selection with WNBA MVP odds available on these three players, and other WNBA futures.
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