The WNBA Finals odds suggest that Las Vegas have the edge over Phoenix in what should be a fantastic championship series. The Aces have been historically good down the stretch, but the Mercury will be a tough out.
Which team wins the title? I’ll analyze both sides and give you my WNBA Finals predictions, along with a pick for WNBA Finals MVP, at the end of this article!
WNBA 2025 Finals Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | -135 |
| Phoenix Mercury | +105 |
WNBA betting sites have evaluated both teams, and the Las Vegas Aces (-135) have emerged as the favorites, according to the WNBA Finals odds! The Aces have an implied probability of 57.4% to win the title, and they’ve been the best team in the league over the last two months of the season.
The Phoenix Mercury (+105) aren’t far behind with an implied probability of 48.8%, and have quietly been one of the top four teams in the league. The WNBA Finals odds say this is very close to a coin flip. But what does the analysis say? Also, keep in mind that this is the first time that the WNBA Finals will be a seven-game series, as opposed to the usual five games.
You can find these WNBA Finals prices at Lucky Rebel by going to Sports > Basketball > WNBA Series Prices.
2025 WNBA Finals MVP Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson (LV) | -120 |
| Alyssa Thomas (PHX) | +150 |
| Satou Sabally (PHX) | +1000 |
| Kahleah Copper (PHX) | +1700 |
| Jackie Young (LV) | +2500 |
| Chelsea Gray (LV) | +12500 |
It shouldn’t be a surprise that A’ja Wilson (-120) is the WNBA Finals MVP favorite with an implied probability of 54.5%. She won the award in 2023. There is also no shock that Phoenix’s Alyssa Thomas (+150) is next with an implied probability of 40%. These are the two best players in the series and will have a massive say in whose team comes out on top.
Phoenix has the next two players in the WNBA Finals MVP odds with Satou Sabally (+1000), 2021 Finals MVP Kahleah Copper (+1700). The Aces’ Jackie Young (+2500) is in the mix, while teammate and 2022 Finals MVP Chelsea Gray (+12500) is a longshot.
You can also find these WNBA Finals MVP odds at Lucky Rebel by heading to Sports > Basketball > WNBA > WNBA Awards.
The Favorites: Can the Aces Ride Their Run All the Way to the Title?
Let’s look at the WNBA Finals betting favorites from Las Vegas!
Las Vegas Aces (-135)
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- Head Coach: Becky Hammon
- 2024 Record: 27-13 (Lost in Semifinals)
- WNBA Titles: 2
- Key Players: A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd
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The Aces won their last 16 games to end the regular season, and then needed three games to oust Seattle, and five games to outlast Indiana. The final game of the Fever series went to overtime, and the Aces pulled out a 107-98 win at home.
𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐀𝐋𝐒 𝐁𝐎𝐔𝐍𝐃𝐃𝐃 ♠️
For the third time in four years, the Las Vegas Aces are headed to the WNBA Finals!#RaiseTheStakes pic.twitter.com/1PA0fLMllO
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) October 1, 2025
A’ja Wilson, fresh off winning her fourth WNBA MVP award and third Defensive Player of the Year trophy, has averaged 26.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.6 steals, and 2.8 blocks in the postseason. Jackie Young has raised her game, averaging 20.5 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.8 boards. Chelsea Gray leads the team with 7.3 assists and has added 2.3 steals.
The Aces have also shot 39.2% from three-point land in the playoffs as a team, which helps with floor spacing. Las Vegas’ team defense can get a little loose at times, but they manage to get timely stops when they need to, or they just ratchet up their offense.
But Las Vegas’ biggest advantage here is their championship experience as a group. Wilson and Young were on the 2020 team that was swept by Seattle in the Finals. Gray and head coach Becky Hammon joined the 2022 and 2024 teams that won the titles. The core of this team has been here before, and won’t be blinded by the spotlight. But will that be enough to get past a tough Phoenix team?
The Underdogs: Can Phoenix Overcome the Odds Against the Aces?
Now, let’s check out the WNBA Finals betting underdogs from Phoenix!
Phoenix Mercury (+105)
- Head Coach: Nate Tibbetts
- 2024 Record: 19-21 (Lost in First Round)
- WNBA Titles: 3
- Key Players: Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper
The Mercury lost their last three games heading into the postseason, and it looked shaky. They gave away Game 1 against New York in overtime in the first round, but bounced back to win the next two. They also lost the first game against Minnesota, but stormed back to win a feisty and physical series against the Lynx.
The moment we were chasing – became the reality that we earned.
This Is Finals Basketball. pic.twitter.com/WZsit5arlX
— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) September 30, 2025
Alyssa Thomas continues to be the engine of the Mercury, averaging 18.6 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.4 rebounds in the playoffs, along with 2.0 steals. Satou Sabally has been inconsistent, but is averaging 17.9 points and 7.4 rebounds. Kahleah Copper has chipped in 15.0 points.
They do have some WNBA Finals experience, as Thomas, Copper, DeWanna Bonner, and Sami Whitcomb have all been to the championship round. Bonner won titles in 2009 and 2014, Copper did in 2021 as the Finals MVP, and Whitcomb won it in 2018 and 2020.
The Mercury’s defense has been terrific in the playoffs, ranking first in defensive rating. Their defense sparked a 20-point comeback against Minnesota in Game 2 of their series on the road, and they held the Lynx to nine points in the fourth quarter of their Game 3 win. That was also the game in which they took out MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier, who suffered an ankle injury, but it wasn’t on purpose.
The Mercury’s offense can get bogged down sometimes, but they can always lean on their defense, and that gives them a big chance against the Aces!
2025 WNBA Championship Prediction and Betting Pick
The Aces won three of four against the Mercury during the regular season, and Wilson has been incredible. She missed the first meeting, which was a 76-70 loss. But in the other three games, Wilson has averaged 25.0 points, 15.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists.
If the Aces continue to hit their three-pointers, it’s going to be difficult for Phoenix to figure out who to guard. Will they double-team Wilson and take their chances with the shooters? On the other end of the floor, will the Aces put Wilson on Thomas and force someone else to make decisions?
I love the Phoenix defense, but I can’t bet against Las Vegas, their championship pedigree as a group, and they have the best player in the world in Wilson. I think the Aces should be a bigger favorite, so at -135, you’re getting a great deal on the team I believe will win the title.
Put the Las Vegas Aces at -135 in your WNBA Finals betting picks!
2025 WNBA Finals MVP Betting Pick
You’re getting A’ja Wilson at an outstanding price at -120, and if the Aces win, she’ll play a considerable role in that. On the other side, if you think the Mercury will win, Thomas is a great play at +150.
But since I’m picking the Aces, I’m staying with Wilson at -120 to win her second WNBA Finals MVP and cap another spectacular season!
Where to Bet on 2025 WNBA Championship Odds?
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