The party’s primary season, during any new election cycle, is arguably the most intense and thrilling time to bet on US politics. As the two major political parties, the Republicans and Democrats, move closer to selecting a presidential nominee at their national conventions, bettors are treated to 50 individual inter-party statewide races. Each one is available for wagering at the top political betting sites.
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In this guide, we’ll be looking at betting the Republican primaries. However, the 2020 GOP nomination process won’t be quite as exciting for handicappers, since Donald Trump is the incumbent. Besides a few insignificant challengers in a handful of states, the President’s run for reelection will be uncontested by his own party. Multiple states even canceled their primaries or caucuses and decided to award Trump their delegates automatically.
Still, there will be plenty of opportunities to bet on markets involving the Republican Party before the GOP convention in August. We’ll take a look at some of those betting lines below. But first, let’s check out the best US Republican betting sites at which to find these odds.
Why Are These the Top Sites for Betting on Republican Elections?
Above, you’ll find a list of the top US Republican election betting sites available anywhere online. These aren’t online sportsbook operators that merely paid us to include them in our recommendations, but providers who have undergone our extensive review process and proven to offer customers the best gaming all-around experience based on a variety of factors.
Without breaking down the entirety of our proprietary review process, here are some of our expert reviewers’ top concerns when vetting a political betting site:
- Safety and Security
- Great Republican Election Markets and Odds
- Wide Selection of Banking Methods
- History and Reputation
- Winner Friendly
Politics is still a relatively young category of wagering, which leads to much softer lines and more variance from oddsmaker to oddsmaker.
For that reason, we strongly suggest signing up at multiple US Republican election betting websites right from the start. That way, no matter what contest on which you plan to wager, you’ll have the flexibility to quickly shop for the best lines and maximize your profitability long term.
Plus, the best political betting sites offer generous deposit bonuses, so why not collect as many of them as possible? It’s free money, after all!
Betting on the 2020 Republican Party Primaries
In 2016, Donald Trump pulled off one of the most unexpected and impressive political performances of all time by systematically demolishing the field of Republican primary opponents in front of him. What began as a novelty candidacy swiftly transformed into a juggernaut of a campaign that humiliated Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and other more traditional GOP members.
Trump brought something new to American politics—unapologetic authenticity. Throughout the primaries and general election, the media latched onto seemingly dozens of scandals, each of which enough to single-handedly sink a campaign in previous years.
But “The Donald” just kept on rising in the polls, no matter how much the Republican leaders tried to prevent the real estate developer’s takeover of the party.
After defeating Hillary Clinton to become President of the United States, it was clear that Trump had effectively changed electoral politics in America for good. He understood that elections were an entertainment event, where big personalities—not policy details—would win the day.
Republican Incumbent Donald Trump
Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s dominant 2016 run and his high approval ratings amongst Republican voters means we won’t have much to bet on during the primaries in 2020. The President launched his reelection bid on February 18, 2017, only a month after being inaugurated for his first term! With a base of supporters that are as enthusiastic as ever, a high national GDP, and a fresh impeachment acquittal, Trump is coasting into the 2020 general election without having to worry about a serious primary challenger.
This might be a positive thing if you’re a Conservative, but it costs handicappers and US Republican election betting sites roughly 50 state-level contests on which to wager! Fortunately, there are still plenty of Donald Trump props and general election futures to keep us busy in the meantime. And if the incumbent wins reelection, as expected, that means both parties will provide us with action-packed political betting opportunities during the 2024 primaries!
Betting Individual State Caucuses and Primaries
The best thing about party primary season during election years is the number of unique contests to bet on. Similar to the NFL, the political primary schedule rewards us with a litany of handicapping opportunities over the course of five or six months.
During most weeks leading up to the national conventions, you’ll have only one primary or caucus taking place. But on a few others, such as Super Tuesday, we are treated to 16 electoral showdowns on the same day. And with political betting, you can find much more value in those US Republican betting odds than in popular sports.
Each state’s population has a unique demographic makeup, history, and culture, so a candidate who excels in one location may not retain their popularity in the next contest. However, you do have to consider things like momentum, national poll numbers, approval ratings, and so much more for each individual bet.
Between the high volume of electoral events in a relatively short timeframe, the variance in outcomes and odds alike from place to place, and the newness of US political betting, the Democratic and Republican betting sites offer the most positive value you can ever hope to find online.
As political wagering markets continue to explode in popularity, those Republican betting odds will get sharper. But for now, there’s lots of money to be made!
Primary – Each state is responsible for organizing and officiating their own electoral contests in the lead up to the party nominations. There are two main categories: primaries and caucuses (the entire 50-state nomination process is called a “primary,” but primaries are also single-state elections).
A primary is a straightforward, common election held at the state level, only among members of the same political party. There are minor differences, depending on the location; for example, some jurisdictions hold open primaries, in which any resident of the state may participate, while others require voters to be registered members of the party. However, the basics remain the same. Voters go to the polls and cast ballots for their preferred candidate.
Caucus – Unlike in a primary, voters do not cast ballots at caucuses. These electoral contests are more like a meeting of residents from various precincts. Participants form groups supporting their favorite candidates and try to convince others to join as well. There are multiple headcounts and speaking phases, and ultimately, a candidate is nominated.
If you’re looking for upset opportunities, identify the US Republican election betting events held in states that caucus. These contests are especially chaotic and unpredictable, giving underdogs a better chance to shine.
GOP Nomination Futures Wagers
Even though Donald Trump is the incumbent, most US Republican election betting sites have futures odds posted for the GOP nomination. In 2020, Trump is such a heavy favorite that it’s basically pointless to bet on him, but crazy things do happen in American politics.
You can also use Republican election futures odds to handicap other markets. During the impeachment trial, we were able to use Trump’s GOP nomination line to determine that oddsmakers weren’t the least bit worried about the President being removed from office. Some online sportsbooks were offering impeachment prop bets too, which made these futures lines a very helpful tool.
Donald Trump vs. The Field Bets
Because of Donald Trump’s immense popularity among Conservative voters and a considerable percentage of Independents, many political betting sites decided to set odds on the President versus the field. So, rather than picking a specific candidate to defeat the incumbent, you can wager on the winner being anyone but Trump.
This can be an attractive way to buy some action against the heavy favorite without relying on too much luck. Do you see some concerning trends that you believe will result in Donald Trump resigning or deciding not to run for a second term? Taking the field allows you to fade the President without needing to identify the specific Republican to fill his void.
Republican National Convention 2020
- When: August 24-27, 2020
- Where: Charlotte, North Carolina
This year, the Republican National Committee will meet in Charlotte, North Carolina, in late August. The party has already gotten behind Donald Trump as their nominee, so the convention will primarily be used to rally the base and get them excited and inspired for the 2020 general elections. Over the course of three days, numerous GOP politicians from a variety of different states and positions within the party will speak to delegates from all around the country.
In the end, President Trump himself will make his case for why the administration will be winning a second term in office. The Republican convention won’t provide the same betting relevance as the Democratic side, but it may help you gauge overall enthusiasm that’s useful for handicapping the general election.
Republican Betting Basics and How to Find Odds
For the most up-to-date news, information, and strategies related to US Conservative betting, check out our most recent political blogs. They’ll break down all of the latest news and preview upcoming contests. You’ll see our expert picks and opinions from now through the end of Election Day in November.
Always Think About Betting Value
Whether you’re betting on politics or sports, a successful handicapper always has their mind on finding betting value. To make a profit over the long term, you have to look further than your surface-level predictions.
Positive betting value exists when the implied probability (determined by converting the moneyline betting odds into percentage form) is lower than the actual odds of an outcome occurring. For example, a -300 favorite has an implied probability of 75%. In other words, you’d need to win a -300 bet 75% of the time to break even. Picking the side priced at -300 is only profitable if the likelihood of the outcome is higher than 75% each time.
For example, at some US Republican election betting sites, Donald Trump is a -300 favorite to win a second term in 2020. After observing the polls and studying the Democratic primary challengers, you determine that Trump has an 85% chance of beating whoever the DNC runs against him. Because the actual likelihood exceeds 75%, it’s worth risking $300 just to win $100.
Take Note of Democratic Party Divide
If you’re planning to use your US Conservative betting sites to put some action on the 2020 presidential election, keep a close eye on the issues developing in the Democratic Party. While Trump has been able to galvanize working-class voters and wealthy donors alike under his platform, his opposition is in the midst of a devastating class divide.
The working-class Democrats have mostly moved further left, under Bernie Sanders’ progressive banner. However, the moderate establishment wing of the party doesn’t want to lose control of the party, nor are they interested in Medicare for All or a wealth tax. This conflict is a massive gift to Donald Trump’s reelection campaign.
What you want to watch for is how the different factions react to the nominee and how the eventual nominee is chosen. For example, if Bernie Sanders enters the convention with the most delegates, but party insiders decide to pick someone else after several rounds of voting, you can rest assured a sizable portion of Sen. Sanders’ supporters will either stay home on Election Day, vote third-party, or choose Trump out of spite.
Similarly, should Bernie Sanders overcome neoliberal resistance to win the nomination regardless, you’ll want to closely analyze everything the moderates and party loyalists do. Will they truly get behind their candidate, or will they sandbag him and wait to run someone of whom they approve in four years?
Follow Poll Numbers, but Don’t Overvalue Them
Poll numbers are essential in handicapping any political betting event. They give you a snapshot of how voters from different states, age groups, races, and socio-economic backgrounds feel about each of the candidates, as well as various related issues. However, you’ll want to use the most reliable agencies.
More importantly, you don’t want to overly rely on using poll numbers when handicapping US Republican betting odds. That’s where the media and political oddsmakers went wrong in the 2016 election. Polls always contain a certain degree of bias; for example, many of the surveys are executed over the telephone. Since older people are more likely to answer an unknown number, the results often skew towards this one voting bloc.
In recent years, we’ve also seen a trend of media outlets and their affiliated pollsters trying to influence elections by reporting compromised data as truth. Rather than objectively collecting and sharing the reality of the situation, they present numbers they’d like to see and hope voters respond accordingly.
In 2016, many of the top left-leaning outlets dramatically inflated Hillary Clinton’s “certain victory” by continually sharing misleading poll numbers and ignoring the former Secretary of State’s dwindling crowd sizes and lack of attention paid to crucial Rust Belt states.
You need poll numbers to follow the general flow of the election cycle and how Republican candidates are trending over time, but don’t expect this data to deliver political betting victories on their own!
Read Competing News Sources When Betting Republican Odds
These days, it’s too easy to live in a bubble that only serves to reinforce one’s current opinions and worldview. On one side, CNN, MSNBC, the NY Times, and Washington Post primarily focus on stories that either hurt Republicans or help Democrats. Undesirable stories about members of the DNC are either ignored, downplayed, or defended against.
On the other end of the spectrum, Fox News and a few other conservative platforms do the exact opposite. They act as the Republican echo-chamber for consumers unwilling to acknowledge alternative perspectives.
The end result is a glaring lack of journalists working to provide voters and political handicappers with objective truth and unbiased analysis. There are a few out there, but you’ll need to be willing to accept their opinions before finding them, even if they don’t always report favorably on your preferred party.
Lucky for you, our political betting experts are tirelessly working to provide readers with up-to-date news and data as objectively as possible! When you do decide to use mainstream news sources, however, make sure to read what both sides are saying. For every CNN or MSNBC article, read one from Fox News, too. Don’t shut yourself off to those valuable contradictory perspectives.
When it comes to betting on US Republican elections, your personal feelings and opinions aren’t what’s important. All that matters is predicting what will actually happen, not who’s right or wrong. So, give yourself the most complete view of the electorate by studying what both sides have to say.
Betting on Republican Elections in 2024
In 2020, the Democratic primaries will be where most of the action is for political bettors since Donald Trump already has the GOP nomination in the bag. Win or lose, that won’t be the case in 2024. If the incumbent is reelected this November, the next election cycle will be the Holy Grail for handicappers, with both parties running extensive 50-state primaries.
If the Democrats score an upset win over Donald Trump, US Republican election betting sites will be the dominant oddsmakers, while the GOP searches for their next candidate. Either way, we start planning ahead and handicapping the 2024 contest shortly after the current one is decided in November. Believe it or not, the top political betting sites will have odds posted before the end of the year!