NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 2: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Spurs vs. Clippers)

Victor Wembanyama continues to be one of the most reliable plays in the first basket market as the San Antonio Spurs take on the LA Clippers.

San Antonio holds a massive advantage at the opening tip, leading the NBA with a 76% jump ball win rate. With Wembanyama at center, the Spurs consistently secure the first possession, giving them a major edge in first scorer bets.

That early possession often translates directly into a Wembanyama scoring opportunity. He’s been dominant to start games and is arguably the most consistent first basket hitter this season.

WEMBY WENT OFF IN THE BAY!

👽 41 PTS (16-22 FGM)
👽 18 REB
👽 3 AST
👽 3 BLK

The Spurs win their 10th straight game and improve to 26-2 in their last 28 🔥 pic.twitter.com/CGapUqWjBf

— NBA (@NBA) April 2, 2026

Wembanyama enters averaging 24.7 points per game on 50.9% shooting, and he’s in elite form, coming off back-to-back 41-point performances. His ability to score from anywhere makes him extremely dangerous on the opening possession.

With elite jump ball positioning, red-hot form, and a featured offensive role, +400 odds still offer strong value for a first basket prop bet.

Devin Booker +500 (Suns vs. Hornets)

Devin Booker is a top-tier option for NBA first basket betting picks as the Phoenix Suns take on the Charlotte Hornets.

Phoenix has a strong edge at the opening tip, winning 68.4% of jump balls compared to 43.4% for Charlotte, putting them in prime position to control the first possession.

DEVIN BOOKER TONIGHT:

36 POINTS
5 ASSISTS
2 REBOUNDS
16/24 FGM
4/6 3PM

ONLY 26 MINUTES. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/h5t35OoIHn

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 31, 2026

If the Suns get that first look, Booker is the most likely player to capitalize. He’s the focal point of the offense and consistently aggressive right out of the gate.

Booker enters averaging 25.8 points per game on 45.7% shooting, and he’s in elite form recently with back-to-back performances of 36 and 34 points. He also leads the team with 18.5 field goal attempts per game, highlighting his high usage.

With the Suns likely to get the first possession and Booker scorching hot, +500 odds offer strong value for a first basket prop bet today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.