NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 3: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Brunson +450 (Bulls vs. Knicks)

Jalen Brunson continues to be one of the most reliable options in the first basket market, and this matchup lines up well for another quick strike. The New York Knicks hold a clear edge in the opening tip, winning 51.9% of the time compared to just 36.8% for the Chicago Bulls. That edge in possession is often half the battle in this market.

From there, it is all about usage, and Brunson checks every box. He already has 14 first baskets this season and takes the opening shot in 20% of his games, not just for the Knicks but overall. That level of involvement right out of the gate is hard to ignore.

With an average of 20 shots per game, Brunson’s aggressive scoring mindset makes him the focal point early. At +450, the combination of opportunity and intent creates a strong case for him to open the scoring.

Wendell Carter J +700 (Magic vs. Mavericks)

Wendell Carter Jr. is not the typical headliner in the first basket market, but this is exactly the kind of profile that creates value at longer odds. The Orlando Magic have been dominant in the opening tip, winning 72.4% of the time compared to just 40.8% for the Dallas Mavericks. That strong edge in first possession immediately boosts his chances.

Even without being the primary scoring option, Carter Jr. remains heavily involved in the opening sequence. He takes 19.4% of the first shots in games he starts (not only on his team, but overall), a surprisingly high rate that reflects how often plays are drawn up for him early.

That involvement has already translated into results, with 11 first baskets on the season. At +700, this is a spot where opportunity and early game usage outweigh name value, making Carter Jr. a compelling play to strike first.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.