2023 NFL Thanksgiving Games Odds and Predictions

2023 NFL Thanksgiving Games Odds and Predictions

NFL games on Thanksgiving have been an American tradition since 1934. Historically, these Thanksgiving games have started off with an early afternoon feast in Detroit, and this year is no different. The Lions will host their NFC North rival Green Bay Packers to kick off the Holiday gridiron action.

In fact, this year’s NFL Thanksgiving games feature a rivalry theme, which adds a little flavor to our Turkey Day festivities. In addition to the opening game above, the Dallas Cowboys will host their NFC East rivals, the Washington Commanders. Finally, the Seattle Seahawks will try to chase down their NFC West rivals, the San Francisco 49ers, in the Thursday night showdown.

Let’s take a look at the latest 2023 NFL Thanksgiving odds, courtesy of the best NFL betting sites, and make our NFL Thanksgiving predictions for all three games. NFL odds are courtesy of Bovada.

NFL Thanksgiving Schedule

What NFL teams are playing on Thanksgiving? Let’s take a quick look at the updated 2023 NFL Thanksgiving schedule to see which teams are playing and where to watch the games1:

  • 12:30 p.m. EST: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan (TV: FOX)
  • 4:30 p.m. EST: Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (TV: CBS)
  • 8:20 p.m. EST: San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington (TV: NBC, Peacock)

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Odds

Green Bay Packers+7.5 (-110)+285Over 47 (-115)
Detroit Lions-7.5 (-110)-370Under 47 (-105)
  • The Detroit Lions are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games versus the Green Bay Packers.
  • The Detroit Lions are 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 games versus the Green Bay Packers.
  • The Detroit Lions are 5-0 ATS in their previous five games versus the Green Bay Packers at home.
  • The Detroit Lions are 8-2 ATS in their previous ten games at home overall.
  • The Detroit Lions are 7-0 outright in their previous seven games versus the NFC North.
  • The Detroit Lions are 4-10 outright in their previous 14 NFL Thanksgiving games.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Predictions

The Packers will look to keep the momentum rolling after edging out the Los Angeles Chargers at home. The defense got a stop in the final drive to preserve a 23-20 win at Lambeau Field.

Jordan Love passed for a career-high 322 yards in the victory. Additionally, Love threw two touchdowns in the winning effort at home. The Packers were one of the top underdog bets in Week 11, so this did not come as a surprise.

The Chargers’ secondary has been the worst in the NFL, and Love took advantage of the opportunity. In his first season as a starter, Love has completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 2,331 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions2.

The Lions are ninth in the NFL, with an average of 313 yards allowed per game. In contrast, the Chargers are 31st, with 393.6 yards conceded per game3. In front of a frenzied crowd at Ford Field, expect this to be a trickier assignment for Love.

Jared Goff is coming off one of his worst starts as the starting quarterback for Detroit. In the Lions’ 31-26 fourth quarter double-digit comeback win over the Chicago Bears, Goff passed for 236 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions4. Goff could have had one or two interceptions, and maybe a pick-6.

Were Goff and the Lions looking ahead to the Packers? The Lions still won the game despite multiple miscues. Expect a much cleaner performance from the Lions in this one.

In the first Lions vs Packers matchup in 2023, the Lions leaned on their running game to pull away for a 34-20 win in September. It should be closer on Thanksgiving, but the Lions should have the advantage to win and cover the spread at online betting sites.

The Bet

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

Washington Commanders+10.5 (-105)+410Over 48.5 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys-10.5 (-115)-585Under 48.5 (-105)
  • The Dallas Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in their previous nine games versus the Washington Commanders.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games overall.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their previous five games at home.
  • The Washington Commanders are 1-5 in their previous six games versus the NFC East.
  • The UNDER is 3-1 in the previous four Commanders vs. Cowboys matchups.
  • The Cowboys are 3-11 ATS in their previous 14 NFL Thanksgiving games.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Predictions

On Sunday, November 19, the Washington Commanders slipped to 4-7 in embarrassing fashion. As heavy favorites, the Commanders lost 31-19 against a Tommy DeVito-led New York Giants squad.

Commanders’ QB Sam Howell never looked comfortable. He passed for 255 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. It has been an up-and-down year for Howell. The former UNC starter has passed for 3,038 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions5.

Howell’s numbers are fine, but he would probably see improved stats with a stronger offensive line. The Commanders’ offensive line is 31st in the NFL in sacks allowed per game.

With 4.6 sacks yielded per game, only the Giants have given up more sacks this season6. Many other QBs in the NFL would have issues with success behind the inept offensive line in Washington.

The Cowboys are a terrible matchup for the Commanders’ offensive line. Led by NFL awards DPOY contender Micah Parsons, the Cowboys are second in the league, with a team sack percentage of 10.51 percent per play7.

They are fully equipped to cause issues for the Commanders’ passing game. In addition to the pass rush, the Cowboys are second in the secondary, with 157.1 passing yards allowed per contest. Conversely, the Commanders are 30th, with an average of 258.5 yards yielded through the air8.

The Cowboys need this game to stay within striking distance of the Eagles in the NFC East. After trading Chase Young and Montez Sweat, we know what the Commanders’ intentions are for the rest of the season. It’s a lot of points, but we are comfortable laying double digits on the Cowboys at home.

The Bet

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds

San Francisco 49ers-6.5 (-115)-285Over 43 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks+6.5 (-105)+235Under 43 (-110)
  • The San Francisco 49ers are 3-0 ATS in their previous three games versus the Seattle Seahawks.
  • The San Francisco 49ers are 10-1 ATS in their previous 11 games versus the NFC West.
  • The Seattle Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their previous six games overall.
  • The Seattle Seahawks are 2-8 ATS in their previous 10 games in November.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have gone 3-1 Under the total in their previous four games overall.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Predictions

Following a three-game losing streak, the 49ers are back on track and playing like a top Super Bowl contender. Currently, at Bovada, the 49ers are co-favorites with the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 58.

The 49ers hit the skids at the same time as wide receiver Deebo Samuel’s injury. Following a 31-17 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the 49ers returned from their bye week with a healthy Samuel. With time to regroup, and Samuel back, the 49ers throttled the Jacksonville Jaguars for a 34-3 win.

Everything opens up for the offense when Samuel is on the field. That includes Brandon Aiyuk, who had 156 yards receiving and a touchdown in the 49ers’ 27-13 Week 11 win over the Buccaneers. QB Brock Purdy passed for 333 yards and three touchdowns9.

While the 49ers hit peak performance in Week 11, the Seahawks stalled out in a 17-16 loss versus the Los Angeles Rams. To make matters worse, Geno Smith is dealing with an arm injury. Currently, Smith’s status for Thursday is unknown.

Regardless if Drew Lock starts or Smith is on the field at less than 100 percent, navigating the 49ers’ defense won’t be an easy task. And, with Kenneth Walker likely out, the Seahawks can’t rely on their rushing attack against a 49ers team allowing an impressive 81.4 rushing yards per game10.

A healthy Seahawks team would have been a tough home underdog, but in their current shape, the 49ers are a top pick for the NFL Thanksgiving games.

The Bet

Best Thanksgiving NFL Prop Bets

Let’s take a look at the best prop bets for the NFL games on Thanksgiving. We have three Thanksgiving NFL prop bets that provide the best value at the top football betting sites:

Jameson Williams (DET) Anytime Touchdown


After serving a suspension for gambling, the Lions’ Jameson Williams has slowly become more involved in the offense. In Week 11, Goff connected with Williams for a 32-yard touchdown. Williams was integral in the comeback for the Lions. The former Alabama star collected two receptions for 44 yards on three targets11.

As Amon-Ra St. Brown draws attention, Goff should have a chance to hit Williams on a vertical route again this week. At +300, the anytime touchdown prop bet on Williams is worth considering.

The Bet

Jake Ferguson (DAL) Anytime Touchdown


One of the best anytime touchdown bets over the last month has been on Cowboys’ tight end Jake Ferguson. Ferguson is not a top-tier name, but the 24-year-old former Wisconsin Badger is quietly asserting himself as a weapon in the Cowboys’ offense.

In 2023, Ferguson has been targeted 55 times throughout the first 10 games. Over the last three games, he’s had 22 targets from Dak Prescott. Additionally, Ferguson has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games.

The streak came to an end against the Panthers, but he’ll have more opportunities to score in the red zone on Thanksgiving. With a soft Commanders’ secondary on the docket, Ferguson should find room to operate.

The Bet

Christian McCaffrey Total Receiving Yards

Over 33.5-115
Under 33.5-115

Christian McCaffrey is a multi-talented player who can do so many things in the 49ers’ offense. He’s much more than just a ball carrier, notably in the passing game, where McCaffrey is a safety valve, target on screens, and route runner out of the backfield.

This season, McCaffrey has collected 43 receptions for 364 yards and five receiving touchdowns. Purdy has targeted him 22 times over the last three weeks.

Since October 23 against the Vikings, McCaffrey has accumulated 187 receiving yards for an average of 46.75 yards per game. He’s recorded at least 47 receiving yards in three of his last four starts12.

There is solid value in McCaffrey’s NFL Thanksgiving odds to finish with more than 33 receiving yards.

The Bet

NFL Thanksgiving Parlay

Thursday wouldn’t be complete without playing some NFL Thanksgiving parlays. With all the point spreads for Thanksgiving football near a touchdown or higher, we suggest adding one of our NFL parlays to your Week 12 NFL betting strategy.

For our NFL Thanksgiving parlay bets, we are locking in a three-team moneyline parlay, as well as a three-leg parlay against the spread. The moneyline parlay involves a lower payout, but a stronger chance of winning.

With this in mind, you can consider wagering more on the moneyline parlay than the three-leg point spread bet. As usual, we recommend using Bovada for the following parlays:

NFL Thanksgiving Parlay #1

On a $100 wager, the following NFL Thanksgiving parlay pays $101.86, at +101 odds:

  • Detroit Lions (-370)
  • Dallas Cowboys (-585)
  • San Francisco 49ers (-285)

NFL Thanksgiving Parlay #2

On a $100 wager, the following NFL Thanksgiving parlay pays $567.29, at +567 odds:

  • Detroit Lions -7.5 (-110)
  • Dallas Cowboys -10.5 (-115)
  • San Francisco 49ers (-115)
Bovada Sportsbook
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History of NFL Thanksgiving Games

The Detroit Lions’ Thanksgiving game has been an annual tradition since 1934. Before the start of the 1934 season, team owner George A. Richards moved the Portsmouth Spartans football club from Ohio to Michigan.

In a new city, and with a new team name, Richards contrived an idea to improve attendance and attract new fans. On a day when fans are largely home from work, he proposed a Lions’ Thanksgiving game.

The idea was a huge success, as the University of Detroit Stadium sold out to watch the Lions lose to the Chicago Bears. Despite the loss, the tradition stuck, and the NFL has awarded the Lions a Thanksgiving game every year except six seasons during World War II13.

More than 30 years later, another organization jumped on the NFL Thanksgiving tradition. Purely as a marketing gimmick, the Dallas Cowboys’ Thanksgiving game was born thanks to former general manager Tex Schramm.

With the Cowboys struggling and attendance waning, the Cowboys broke an attendance record as 80,259 fans watched the team beat the Cleveland Browns on Thanksgiving in 196614. Like the Lions, the tradition has continued through 2023. The Lions started earlier, but the Cowboys have had more success in NFL Thanksgiving games.

  • Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Record: 37-44-2
  • Dallas Cowboys Thanksgiving Record: 32-22-1


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  10. NFL Football Stats – NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game

  11. Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions Wide Receiver – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4426388/jameson-williams

  12. Christian McCaffrey 2023 Stats per Game – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3117251/christian-mccaffrey

  13. Thanksgiving Football: Detroit Lions Game History | Time.com. Retrieved From “https://time.com/3600711/thanksgiving-football-detroit-lions/

  14. Here’s why the Cowboys always play on Thanksgiving, explained | The Sporting News. Retrieved From “https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/dallas-cowboys-thanksgiving-explained/146o1kch215gx1q57og4dlqqvs

About the Author
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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