NFL Win Total Best Bets for 2025-26

Buffalo Bills Win Totals Prediction for 2025-26

• • Over 11.5 wins (-140)
  • Under 11.5 wins (+110)

The Bills kick off my list of NFL over/under win totals to target this season. Buffalo made the AFC championship game last year but once again failed to dethrone the Chiefs after some questionable officiating.

On the bright side, Josh Allen won the MVP, and the Bills were active in the offseason. Top NFL betting sites have the Bills listed at over/under 11.5 wins this year, and I think they will cover the over in 2025.

The fact that the Bills get to host:

the Chiefs
the Ravens
the Bengals
& the Eagles

in 2025-26 is insane ‼️

Many great games will be played at Highmark Stadium in it’s final season. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/pbZRG2JBzQ

— Buffalo Sports Talk (@BUFSportsTalk) May 14, 2025

The line of 11.5 is a tricky one for the Bills. Allen has led Buffalo to 13 wins in three of the last five seasons. In the other two, Buffalo finished with 11 wins, just under their current total.

Buffalo’s home schedule is tough this season. They start with a Sunday Night Football matchup with Baltimore. The Bills also host Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Kansas City at Orchard Park this season.

On the other hand, they should sweep the AFC East this year. No other team in the division had a winning record, and only the Dolphins (5-3) had a winning record at home.

Furthermore, their road schedule is relatively easy, with visits to the Panthers, Cleveland, and the QB-less Steelers. If Allen can continue to play at a high level and avoid the mid-season slump that has derailed the team in previous years, the Bills will win at least 12 games.

Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Projection for 2025-26

• • Over 11.5 wins (+100)
  • Under 11.5 wins (-130)

Speaking of the top teams in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs lost their bid for a three-peat in shocking fashion. Despite their blowout loss in Super Bowl 59, Kansas City is listed at over/under 11.5 wins this season.

A Christmas showdown in Kansas City 🎄

Broncos. Chiefs. Only on Prime. pic.twitter.com/5tTVzuw0zr

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) May 12, 2025

The under is a -130 favorite, and I recommend betting against the Chiefs to cover 11.5 wins this season. The Super Bowl hangover after making the Big Game three straight years will hurt. KC faces a demanding home schedule with Baltimore, Philadelphia, and the Lions coming to town.

Before last season, only seven teams had won 15 or more games in a regular season. Only one of those teams won at least 12 games the following season.

Another reason I like the under on the Chiefs’ NFL season win predictions is that the AFC West has quickly become one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. Denver and Los Angeles both made the playoffs last year. Las Vegas should also improve after the Raiders’ extensive makeover this offseason.

Kansas City’s offense has also struggled significantly in recent years. Those struggles are likely to continue if the Chiefs do not find a skilled pass catcher not named Travis Kelce.

Dallas Cowboys Win Total Prediction for 2025-26

• • Over 7.5 wins (-145)
  • Under 7.5 wins (+115)

One of the more surprising NFL projected win totals for the 2025 season belongs to the Cowboys. Dallas is listed at over/under 7.5 wins in their first year under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer.

The Cowboys finished 7-10 last year, their worst record since 2020 (6-10). In both seasons, Dak Prescott missed significant time with injuries. With Prescott back under center, the Cowboys should compete for a winning record this season.

Did the Dallas Cowboys have the best draft in the NFL this year? pic.twitter.com/EEcOy6zrEf

— PFF (@PFF) April 28, 2025

Even with Dak healthy at the start of last year, the Cowboys struggled on both sides of the ball. The good news for Dallas fans is that the Cowboys have tried to address their holes this offseason.

Trading for George Pickens gives the Cowboys one of the most talented wide receiver duos in the NFL. They also added multiple running backs, after signing Javonte Williams and drafting Jaydon Blue. Dallas also added depth to their offensive line and improved their defense in the draft.

Also, since the Cowboys finished third in the division, their schedule will be much easier this year than the first-place schedule they played last season.

Philadelphia Eagles Win Totals Projection for 2025-26

• • Over 11.5 wins (-120)
  • Under 11.5 wins (-110)

Another team in the NFC East that everyone will be watching this season is the Eagles. Philadelphia is the defending Super Bowl champs after their dominating win over the Chiefs in February.

The Eagles are listed at over/under 11.5 wins in their latest 2025-26 NFL win total predictions. They were great last year, but everything points to the Eagles taking a step back this season.

What’s better than an NFC East showdown to kick off the 2025 NFL season?@Ticketmaster | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/QzsBiY6nCn

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) May 12, 2025

First and foremost, the NFC East has not had a repeat winner since 2004.

Also, running back Saquon Barkley largely covered up for the Eagles’ struggles in the passing game. However, after racking up over 2,000 yards last year, Barkley is due for a regression. Of the eight previous 2,000-yard rushers, only two, Barry Sanders and Chris Johnson, had 1,300+ yards the following season.

The Eagles will have their fourth offensive coordinator in the last four years. As Philly learned in 2023, replacing a championship-caliber OC is easier said than done.

Their offseason losses were especially devastating to Philly’s defense. Some of the Eagles’ losses on defense include:

• • Darius Slay
  • J. Gardner-Johnson
  • Josh Sweat
  • Milton Williams
  • Oren Burks

Philly retained much of its talent on offense, but they were not immune to free agency losses. Reclamation project Mekhi Becton was a key part of the Eagles’ offensive line last year, and he is now playing for the Chargers.

The Super Bowl hangover has hit Philly hard in the past, and it likely will again this season. They should compete for the division title, but they will struggle win 12+ games in 2025.

Seattle Seahawks Win Total Prediction for 2025-26

• • Over 7.5 wins (-130)
  • Under 7.5 wins (+100)

Rounding out my picks of NFL win total best bets is for Seattle to cover their total of 7.5 wins. At -130 odds, the Seahawks over has a win probability of 56.52%.

Seattle won 10 games last year, but failed to make the playoffs after losing the division race to LA. The Seahawks made several significant changes this offseason, including trading starting quarterback Geno Smith and their top receiver, DK Metcalf.

Sam Darnold's bringing the deep ball to Seattle 🎯@NextGenStats | @awscloud pic.twitter.com/4KdXBhXEAs

— NFL (@NFL) March 11, 2025

The Seahawks replaced Geno with Sam Darnold, the best quarterback available in free agency. Darnold led Minnesota to a 14-3 record last year, but the Vikings fizzled in the playoffs.

Replacing Metcalf will be a more challenging ask. Seattle did not draft a receiver until they picked Tory Horton in the fifth round. However, the good news is that the Seahawks signed former Triple Crown winner Cooper Kupp in free agency.

Kupp’s best days are behind him, but he will be a great mentor to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Metcalf now playing for the Black and Gold, the 2023 first-round pick needs to step up and be Seattle’s top receiver.

Another reason to target the over is the schedule. Despite finishing second in the division, the Seahawks still face a relatively easy run of games. They host the Saints, whose best quarterback just retired, and the new-look Vikings. Seattle’s away schedule also includes easy matchups, such as the Panthers and the Titans.