NFL Win Total Best Bets for 2025-26

Buffalo Bills Win Totals Prediction for 2025-26

• • Over 11.5 wins (-170)
  • Under 11.5 wins (+140)

The Buffalo Bills aim to finally get over the hump and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. Since 2020, the Bills have lost in the AFC Championship to the Chiefs twice and twice in the divisional round. They also came up short against the Bengals in 2022.

Regular-season success hasn’t been a problem for this team, though. They’ve won 13 games in three of their last five seasons, including a 13-4 campaign in 2024-25. There isn’t any reason to believe that the Bills can’t reach that threshold again this season.

According to the best NFL betting sites, the Bills are favored to reach the 12-win mark. At -170 on the over 11.5, there is a 63% implied probability that the Bills will win more than 11 games. In the seasons that the Bills didn’t reach 13 wins, they finished with 11, so it’s a tight line.

JOSH ALLEN WITH DART TO MACK HOLLINS FOR THE SCORE 😱

WHAT A PLAY.

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/b9ICJOjTpX

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 27, 2025

That said, there isn’t any reason to indicate that the Bills can’t win at least 12 games. This is essentially the same team led by QB Josh Allen, with a couple of key pieces added defensively. DE Joey Bosa and CB Tre’Davious White were inked in the offseason, with White making his return to Orchard Park after playing here from 2017 to 2023.

The Bills’ offense ranked second in the NFL, with 30.9 points per game. With some tweaks to the defense, they should capture another 13 wins in 2025-26. In short, at 11.5 wins, the Bills are one of the best NFL over/under bets on the board!

Kansas City Chiefs Win Totals Prediction for 2025-26

• • Over 11.5 wins (+110)
  • Under 11.5 wins (-140)

Speaking of the top teams in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs lost their bid for a three-peat in shocking fashion. Despite their blowout loss in Super Bowl 59, Kansas City is listed at over/under 11.5 wins this season.

Are the Chiefs destined for a slump after getting blown out in the Super Bowl? They showed up at the Caesars Superdome with a lackadaisical attitude and paid for it with a 40-22 loss. Although the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, I sense that they could regress slightly.

JALEN DIMED DEVONTA FOR SIX 😱

34-0 Eagles dominating the Chiefs 🫨

(via @Eagles)pic.twitter.com/nhrkQoNCTqhttps://t.co/nhrkQoNCTq

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 10, 2025

Last season, the Chiefs had an incredible regular season with 15 wins. That said, they played in plenty of close games, with a win margin of only +2.7 points! Instead of relying on their offensive firepower, the defense came up the clutch to put the Chiefs in the win column.

How much longer can the Chiefs be on the winning side of these close matchups? I expect motivation to be slightly less this season, which could be the difference. Additionally, teams that have won 15 games in a season tend to struggle the following year:

Lastly, the Chiefs are in a competitive AFC West this season. They’ve dominated the division, but the Broncos and Chargers are going to provide a formidable challenge in 2025-26. All things considered, the under is the best NFL win total bet on the Chiefs.

Jacksonville Jaguars Win Totals Prediction for 2025-26

• • Over 7.5 (-130)
  • Under 7.5 (+100)

It’s a big make-or-break year for QB Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. After a disappointing 4-13 season, pressure is on the Jaguars to get the organization back on track.

I’m confident that Lawrence will have a much better season after hitting a pot hole in his second season in the NFL. The 25-year-old Clemson product passed for 2,045 yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in a season that limited him to 10 games.

Healthy and with a new outlook, expect Lawrence to have a bounce-back season. The Jaguars drafted two-way Colorado star Travis Hunter with the second overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Hunter should be a weapon for Lawrence, who joins WR Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Dyami Brown.

"Selfishly, yeah, I definitely want him on offense more."

Trevor Lawrence would like to work with Travis Hunter as much as he can 😂 pic.twitter.com/IYowhuZOPk

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) August 6, 2025

I don’t expect the Jaguars to do anything particularly special or compete for an AFC South title. However, they have an easy schedule, and an average season is likely in the works. According to ESPN, the Jaguars have the ninth-easiest schedule, with their opponents sporting a combined record of 135-154 in 2024-25.

An average season looks like a 9-8 campaign for the Jaguars. I think they should hit at least eight wins at a minimum, so the over for your NFL win total picks is a solid option!

Cincinnati Bengals Win Totals Prediction for 2025-26

• • Over 9.5 (-125)
  • Under 9.5 (-105)

The Cincinnati Bengals are in one of the most intriguing spots in the NFL this season. This is an offense-heavy team led by QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase. Can the Bengals score enough points to make up for their mediocre defense?

Fortunately, the Bengals were able to lure DE Trey Hendrickson back to Cincinnati after receiving a $14 million pay bump. The elite pass rusher is the heart and soul of the Bengals’ defense and would have left this unit in dire straits. He knew that much and used it as leverage in negotiations.

The 30-year-old star is coming off back-to-back seasons with 17.5 sacks. With Hendrickson back in the mix, the Bengals’ defense is at least respectable. The Bengals’ offense will score in bunches this season. RB Chase Brown, WR Tee Higgins, and Chase are going to do big damage.

Joe Burrow really is something special… 🤩

(📹: @BengalsCentral_) pic.twitter.com/bjYCxbo56Q

— theScore (@theScore) September 3, 2025

Note that Burrow has the second-best NFL MVP odds this season! I think that’s pretty telling for how they believe the Bengals’ season will transpire. Despite the spotty defense, oddsmakers and the public expect Burrow to push the Bengals over the top.

By all accounts, the Bengals didn’t have a great season last year, and they still won nine games. I’m looking for them to do one win better, so back the Bengals on the over for your NFL season over under picks.

Seattle Seahawks Win Totals Prediction for 2025-26

• • Over 8.5 (+100)
  • Under 8.5 (-130)

Following a 10-7 season, the Seahawks are looking to follow up with more wins in 2025-26. However, the Seahawks’ win total has dropped to 8.5 after a 10-win season.

QB Geno Smith moved on from Seattle to Las Vegas, but is the switch to QB Sam Darnold that much of a downgrade? If anything, it’s a sideways move, so that doesn’t explain the win total. The Seahawks also signed WR Cooper Kupp to give Darnold a viable target in the passing game.

Seattle's new QB Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/lOniXvyVuP

— NFL (@NFL) March 13, 2025

Additionally, the Seahawks have a manageable schedule, with opponents posting a record of 137-152 in 2024-25. The Seahawks don’t appear like a team that is going to regress significantly under head coach Mike Macdonald. Macdonald enters his second season in Seattle under high expectations.

The defensive-minded coach put the defense on the right track, as the Seahawks finished 12th, with 332.7 yards allowed per game. In his second season, I expect Macdonald’s defense to hold strong.

At even odds, the Seahawks have solid value on the over 8.5 wins! I don’t foresee them dropping two fewer games than last season.