NFL Win Total Best Bets for 2026-2027: The Dolphins to Struggle Again

Arizona Cardinals Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 4.5 wins (+120)
  • Under 4.5 wins (-150)

The Cardinals cut Kyler Murray this offseason, allowing the 2019 first overall pick to sign with the Vikings. Rather than addressing quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft, Arizona selected Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love third overall.

Love is a great prospect, but he cannot win games on his own. The Cardinals’ other offensive weapons, including Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, will be limited by the team’s poor QB play.

Arizona drafted Carson Beck in the third round, but the former Georgia and Miami QB is unlikely to start. Instead, the Cardinals are expected to start Jacoby Brissett, assuming they resolve his contract dispute.

"I've been told, as of now, Jacoby Brissett is QB1 despite him holding out for a new contract." @joshweinfuss on Arizona's QB situation

(via @ESPNNFL) #BirdGangpic.twitter.com/fz9F7T4oVg

— SleeperCardinals (@SleeperAZCards) May 6, 2026

Brissett racked up plenty of stats last year in relief of Murray, averaging 280.5 YPG to go with a 23-8 TD-INT ratio. Despite his stats, though, Brisset went 1-11 as the Cardinals’ starter last season.

The Cardinals play in one of, if not the, toughest divisions in the NFL. It would not be surprising if they went 0-6 in their divisional games this season. They also play the NFC East and the AFC West, two equally stacked divisions with teams that should dominate Arizona.

Arizona is rebuilding and expected to tank for the first overall pick in the loaded 2027 NFL Draft. With that in mind, I expect the Cardinals to do their best to win under 4.5 games this season to increase their odds of drafting a franchise QB next April.

Atlanta Falcons Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 7.5 wins (+105)
  • Under 7.5 wins (-135)

Another NFC team that made my list of the best NFL win totals futures for the 2026-27 season is Atlanta. Like the Cardinals, the Falcons made many changes this offseason.

The best NFL betting sites have Atlanta listed at over/under 7.5 wins. The franchise fired head coach Raheem Morris and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski was fired by the Browns, despite winning two Coach of the Year Awards and leading Cleveland to the playoffs twice.

Stefanski will not have Myles Garrett to wreck opposing offenses, but he will have much better talent on offense to work with.

B. Robinson 🤝 pic.twitter.com/zFqLOepzFm

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) May 6, 2026

Atlanta’s QB options are the obvious problem. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from an ACL tear, and the team signed Tua Tagovailoa to a minimum deal after he was cut by the Dolphins. On the bright side, if anyone can design an offense to maximize Tua’s talents, it is Stefanski.

The Falcons are also loaded on offense, including the likes of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Atlanta should also benefit from a soft division. They missed the playoffs last year, but the Falcons were one of three teams in the NFC South to finish with an 8-9 record, so the potential is there.

Finding wins outside of their division will be tough. Atlanta faces the NFC North, the AFC North, the 49ers, the Commanders, and the Chiefs. However, if they can just split their divisional opponents, the Falcons will only need four non-division wins to cover the over on 7.5 wins.

There’s enough talent on the team for Stefanski to achieve that, so I’m backing the Falcons for the over.

Buffalo Bills Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 10.5 wins (-130)
  • Under 10.5 wins (+100)

I went 4-1 in win total predictions last year, and Buffalo was one of my correct predictions. The Bills were listed at 11.5 and barely covered thanks to a Week 18 blowout over the New York Jets.

The Bills are listed at 10.5 wins ahead of the 2026-27 season. The over is the more likely outcome at -130, implying a 56.52% win probability. Buffalo has won 11 or more games every year since 2020.

One of the reasons Buffalo barely covered the win total last year was the surprising ascent of the New England Patriots. They also had unacceptable losses to the Falcons, Dolphins, and Texans.

And that's a wrap on the 2026 NFL Draft. 👏 pic.twitter.com/rJ5ZXLWXyc

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) April 25, 2026

After losing in the Divisional Round, Buffalo fired head coach Sean McDermott and promoted OC Joe Brady. Buffalo traded for WR DJ Moore, who worked with Brady in Carolina.

The Bills also traded back multiple times in the 2026 Draft to accumulate as many picks as possible. They used their draft capital to address their defensive issues. Six of the Bills’ nine picks were used on defensive players.

Buffalo should sweep the Jets and the Dolphins, two teams expected to tank. Assuming they can at least split with the Pats, the Bills only need six out-of-division wins to cover their win total during their first season in their new stadium.

It’s very reasonable to assume they will do it, so I’m happy to take the over for my NFL win total predictions this season at -130.

Dallas Cowboys Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 8.5 wins (-155)
  • Under 8.5 wins (+125)

Dallas had one of the most productive offenses in the league last year. The Cowboys averaged 391.9 YPG (2nd), 266.3 passing YPG (2nd), and 27.7 PPG (7th).

However, a top 10 offense was not enough to make up for the Cowboys’ defensive issues. Dallas allowed 377 YPG, the third-most, and 30.1 PPG, the most in the league. Their porous defense led to Dallas ending with a 7-9-1 record in Brian Schottenheimer’s first season as head coach.

The Cowboys managed to keep WR George Pickens via the franchise tag. With Pickens and CeeDee Lamb on the field, QB Dak Prescott should once again put together an MVP-level season.

.@JFowlerESPN says that George Pickens gauged his trade market before signing the franchise tag:

"He's expecting to have another big year. Now that he signed the tender, he's good with the Cowboys. They should move forward… I'm not expecting a trade or new deal at this point." pic.twitter.com/dgyyEKfoKi

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 4, 2026

Tagging Pickens also allowed the Cowboys to focus on defense in the draft. Dallas used their first three picks, including two in the first round, on defense. In total, five of the Cowboys’ seven picks were on the defensive side of the ball.

Dallas also bolstered the defense last season by trading for Quinnen Williams. If the Cowboys’ defense is just a top-20 unit, their offense will carry them to a winning record.

Schottenheimer’s offense works, but the defensive turnaround will be in the hands of new DC Christian Parker. Parker previously worked with the Packers (2019-2020), the Broncos (2021-2023), and the Eagles (2024-2025).

The potential for a solid season is there, so the Cowboys should be able to cover.

Miami Dolphins Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 4.5 wins (+100)
  • Under 4.5 wins (-130)

Few teams have committed to a rebuild like the 2026 Miami Dolphins. Miami cut Tua Tagovailoa, incurring a record $99.2 million dead cap hit. They also traded Jaylen Waddle to Denver and did not re-sign Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins drafted 13 players this April, including six defenders and two offensive linemen. Those picks should help Miami in the long term, but their 2026 season is likely already lost.

Miami signed Malik Willis to address their QB issues, but their only weapon on offense is RB De’Von Achane. As talented as the 2025 Pro Bowler is, Achane cannot carry this talent-depleted offense to many wins.

Sources: The Dolphins are releasing QB Tua Tagovailoa with a post–June 1 designation.

By cutting Tagovailoa, Miami will take on an NFL-record $99 million in dead money, split over two years, but new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and HC Jeff Hafley now get a fresh start at the quarterback… pic.twitter.com/521FwOj0MR

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2026

The Dolphins also fired head coach Mike McDaniel, replacing their offensive HC with a defensive-minded coach in Jeff Hafley.

Hafley will have his work cut out for him in year one. The Dolphins will play seven playoff teams from last year, including the Bills and Patriots twice each. They face the Chiefs, the Bengals, and the Lions as part of their out-of-division schedule, too.

Miami should pick up a win or two against the Jets, but they could easily lose their other 15 games next season. With that in mind, I recommend hammering the under on 4.5 wins for the Dolphins this season.