As a new season dawns on the UCI World Tour, the 2026 Tour Down Under odds for the first race are on the board! The official start list has been announced, and there are some juicy prices to handicap in a wide open five-stage race.
In this article, I break down the latest odds and the favorites, reveal the best longshot bets, and make my Tour Down Under predictions.
Tour Down Under 2026 Winner Odds
The following Tour Down Under winner odds are courtesy of BetPlays:
| CYCLIST | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jhonatan Narváez | +120 |
| Finn Fisher-Black | +500 |
| Jay Vine | +500 |
| Lennert Van Eetvelt | +600 |
| Adam Yates | +800 |
| Santiago Buitargo | +1000 |
| Javier Romo | +1200 |
| Matthew Brennan | +1200 |
| Lucas Plapp | +1600 |
| Ben O’Connor | +2900 |
Defending champion Jhonatan Narváez (+120) is the frontrunner to win the Tour Down Under for a second consecutive year. At +120 odds, Narváez has a 45.5% implied probability to finish on top in Adelaide, per top cycling betting sites.
Joining Narváez near the top of the board is UAE Team Emirates XRG teammate Jay Vine (+500). Vine shares the same odds and a 16.7% implied probability with Red Bull BORA’s Finn Fisher-Black (+500).
Despite Tadej Pogacar’s absence, UAE Team Emirates XRG holds the key to a win, but Red Bull BORA should remain competitive with Fisher-Black. Narvaez, Vine, and Adam Yates (+800) form a tough trio to contend with, though.
You can find updated Tour Down Under betting odds at BetPlays by navigating to Sport > Cycling > Outrights > Cycling. Outrights > Tour Down Under.
Tour Down Under Route and Key Details
Although top riders Jonas Vingegaard and Pogacar have opted out of the race, there is still plenty of talent in Adelaide for the roughly 789km race. It’s a challenging route to open the year, with more than 13,000 meters of climbing involved in the five-stage event at the Tour Down Under 2026.
The race begins on Tuesday, January 20, kicking off with a 3.6km prologue before the action heats up for five stages. Stage 1 will stay in Tanunda, with a distance of 120.6km through wine country. It isn’t a particularly challenging stage on Murray St., but the race will test riders in Stage 2.
The top contenders will begin to reveal themselves in the second stage, which spans from Norwood to Uraidla. With gradients measuring over 16% through 148.1km, the leading peloton should begin to establish itself before Stage 3. The third stage stretches over 140.8km from the beautiful Henley Beach to Nairne.
Team strategies will set the stage along the coastal region in the longest stage of the race. Stage 4 features 176km of racing from Brighton to Willunga Hill. On January 25, Stage 5 closes out the Tour Down Under in Stirling, which includes sprints in Heathfield and a 2-km climb leading to Stirling. At 170km, it’s the longest finishing stage of the race in history.
Tour Down Under Betting Favorites in 2026
Before diving into my top 2026 Tour Down Under picks, let’s check out the leading favorites from the starting list:
Jhonatan Narvaez (+120)
Backed by the most dangerous team in the race, the UAE Team Emirates XRG rider is the leading candidate to stand on the top step of the podium in Stirling. He’s one of the few climbers in this race built to handle the route with minimal difficulty.
💥 Here we go! After some great work by Jhonatan Narvaez, @TamauPogi is the first to attack!
💥 C'est parti ! Après un très gros travail de Jhonatan Narvaez, @TamauPogi déclenche les hostilités ! #TDF2025 pic.twitter.com/Knpq916OeF
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) July 17, 2025
Stage 2 is where UAE Team Emirates XRG should really flex their strength. They bring the deepest climbing squad to the race, led by Narváez. The 28-year-old Ecuadorian enjoyed several high points in the 2025 season.
After opening his year with a win in Australia, Narváez rode to a respectable 13th place at the Tour de France. He followed that with a strong performance at the Lidl Deutschland Tour, finishing second in August.
He closed out his season with ninth overall at the Tour de Luxembourg and third at the Tour of Guangxi. Notably, Narváez’s best results have come in races featuring four to six stages. He should begin the new season in strong form and has an excellent chance to defend his title in Adelaide.
Finn Fisher-Black (+500)
Red Bull BORA’s best hope for the Tour Down Under hinges on Fisher-Black. He is expected to be the rider that UAE Team Emirates XRG must circle and have tabs on in Adelaide.
Fisher-Black was competitive a season ago for a third-place finish. He didn’t show much fatigue on the difficult climbs and most grueling parts of the race. That’s the key to finding success and Fisher-Black passed the assignment in 2025.
The Kiwi might need help from a teammate or two. Luke Tuckwell is quite familiar and comfortable here on home soil, but climber Haimar Etxeberria could be the difference for Fisher-Black to push in Stage 2.
Overall, in 2025, Fisher-Black had an up and down season. After the Tour Down Under, he had a strong effort in the UAE Tour to grab a sixth-place finish. However, he tailed off toward the end of the year, including 29th in the Criterium du Dauphine and 84th at La Vuelta.
At 24 years old, he should continue to develop in his career and after third last season, that experience will serve him well for the Tour Down Under in 2026.
Jay Vine (+500)
Narváez is UAE Team Emirates XRG’s leading rider, but Vine has an opportunity to take the spotlight in Adelaide. The Aussie is in his home race and will be eager to make his fans proud. Vine has already been racing in Australia this year, winning the National Championships Australia time trial race on January 8.
While Vine dropped out of the road race last week, it wasn’t due to a major injury. He will be fine to start the Tour Down Under and will have plenty of motivation to grab another victory after taking the ITT earlier this year.
In 2025, Vine had a solid performance to finish 11th in the Tour Down Under. He struggled in Stage 2 to finish 48th but showcased a solid kick in the climb to go 13th from Norwood to Uraidla. It was a poor showing in the final stage to sink his chances. He finished 67th, which also pushed him outside of the top 10.
Jay Vine's autumn
– 2 Vuelta stage wins and a good domestique for Almeida
– Silver at Worlds ITT
– Crazy Lombardia pull that dropped all the peloton except Remco, del Toro and StoračarIncredible 2nd half of the season for the "Zwifter" pic.twitter.com/4HLZpDQGM6
— Tratnikismo (@Tratnikstan) October 12, 2025
If he cleans some things up, Vine should be in the mix. His podium finish in the five stage Tour de Romandie in May was the highlight of his season.
Unfortunately, he struggled to find consistency in the Giro d’Italia and finished 30th at La Vuelta despite some bright moments. Two stage wins in Spain were enough to turn some heads in favor of Vine’s ability.
Best Top Tour Down Under Sleepers
Before revealing my best bet, let’s dive into the top longshot 2026 Tour Down Under picks! Two cyclists stand out as underdogs that have a real shot of winning the general classification:
2026 Tour Down Under Prediction and Betting Pick
There aren’t any indications that Narváez’s situation is going to regress after winning the race last year. UAE Team Emirates XRG is backing him as their top guy in this race once again and the rest of the riders on the team are likely to strategize toward his success.
No, Narváez isn’t a huge contender when Pogacar is racing, but he is going to be their No. 1 rider in this spot. Vine and Yates will be fantastic in supporting Narváez in Adelaide. While the long and grueling Grand Tours don’t play to his strengths, a race with five stages certainly does.
In short, at plus odds, Narváez is worth considering as your best Tour Down Under pick.
Where to Bet on the Tour Down Under?
Betting on the Tour Down Under is only available at select online sportsbooks for 2026. BetPlays is one of the leading cycling betting sites and has a strong offering for bettors this year.
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