2026 NFL First Coach Fired Betting Odds, Favorites, and Predictions

Dan Quinn (+150)

Quinn joined the Commanders in 2024, when he took the team to the NFC Championship game, and quarterback Jayden Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year. But the Commanders were decimated by injuries in 2025, including to Daniels, and then went from 12-5 to 5-12.

Dan Quinn and Adam Peters fired by November https://t.co/1mMKjD2NO2

— 𝖪𝖣 𝖢𝗈𝗆𝗆𝖺𝗇𝖽𝖾𝗋 (@ColonelKDGamer) August 24, 2026

Washington replaced both coordinators in the offseason, and brought in Stefon Diggs as a weapon for Daniels. But offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil is already out with a torn triceps and could miss the season. Furthermore, Quinn is known as a defensive coach, but Washington had the worst defense in the league last season.

The Commanders have the sixth-toughest schedule in the league, starting with trips to Dallas and Philadelphia. Then, they have home games against Seattle, and Giants, and away to San Francisco. They also have a London game against Indianapolis in there. The season didn’t get off to a good start as the Commanders fell 24-22 in a close road game in Philadelphia.

If the Commanders are 2-4 or worse by Week 7, which is their bye week, Quinn could absolutely be the first NFL head coach to be fired! However, the odds are too low, so let’s talk about the other options next.

Todd Bowles (+300)

Bowles has been in Tampa Bay since 2022, posting a 35-33 record, including 8-9 and missing the playoffs last season. The Buccaneers were dealing with injuries, but that’s normal in the NFL.

Cannot wait till Todd Bowles is fired, gonna be so nice to have a competent HC https://t.co/oRnlxafpMx

— CFBKnights (@CFBKnights) August 25, 2026

The NFC South is probably the worst division in football, and Tampa Bay should have the most talent. They have a middle-of-the-pack schedule, opening with Cincinnati, then home games against Cleveland, Minnesota, and Green Bay. But they were sloppy in a 33-27 loss in Cincinnati, with four turnovers (all fumbles, three by Baker Mayfield).

The Bucs should win the NFC, but a bad start to the season could put Bowles out of his misery. Bowles is a defensive coach, so he’ll need to see improvement on that side of the ball. If he doesn’t that could be the end of him, since the coach is definitely on a short leash heading into the 26-27 season.

David Canales (+400)

Canales was priced at +1600 on August 27 in the NFL first coach fired odds, but he has shot up the board after a truly dreadful Week 1 performance for the Panthers. Carolina were routed 59-37 at home by Chicago in an incredible game, but not in a good way for Canales.

I asked Canales about Caleb Williams’ post game comments. He said he did not take it as a dig at the defense. pic.twitter.com/uSUU5AEVPR

— Carolina Blitz (@KeepBlitzin) September 14, 2026

The Panthers put up a ton of points (37) and yards (478), but they allowed 59 points and the Bears gashed them for 552 yards. Carolina also had three turnovers and 11 penalties all day. Penalties and turnovers are the mark of bad coaching, which is why Canales is so high on the board.

Carolina has road games at Atlanta and Cleveland next, and then Detroit at home, followed by a trip to Philadelphia. The Panthers have to turn things around quickly, or last season’s NFC South Division win won’t matter much.

Aaron Glenn (+500)

I don’t see Glenn as a favorite to be fired first, although that could change and it seems like I’m in the minority. The Jets were 3-14 last season, but that was more about changing the culture, and their quarterback situation was a mess.

The Jets did bring back Geno Smith, who they drafted in 2013. But I don’t know how much that’s going to matter.

Tommy says it’s likelier that Aaron Glenn is fired by Week 6 than it is the Jets win six games😬@tommylugauer pic.twitter.com/Yrgb2gZXnA

— WFAN Sports Radio (@WFAN660) August 7, 2026

Glenn is another defensive-minded coach, and the Jets have to improve there. What should help is that the team has winnable early games, with a road clash at Tennessee, and home games against New England, Miami, and Las Vegas.

The Jets looked very good in a 23-10 win in Tennessee to open the season, and while their numbers weren’t great, the defense held the Titans to 195 yards. The Jets also controlled the game with almost 39 minutes of possession.

Getting the Jets back to .500 for the first time since 2015 may be a step too far, but I do think they’ll be better. I think Glenn will have this season, at least, to prove his worth as a head coach, and he’s off to a good start.

Shane Steichen (+800)

Steichen has been in charge of the Colts since 2023 and has a 25-26 record. The Colts were 8-2 before their bye last season, then lost their last seven games. Granted, Daniel Jones went down with multiple leg injuries. But that’s also on the head coach, and it’s easier to fire the coach than get rid of the entire team.

Indianapolis has the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL, with three home games against Baltimore, Houston,  and Washington, and a trip to Kansas City. The Colts also have the aforementioned London game against Washington. Keeping Jones healthy is paramount, as is the case with running back Jonathan Taylor.

The schedule gets easier after the first four games, and that’s where I’m wary of Steichen’s NFL first coach fired odds. But the Colts have to take advantage of the slate after a 41-23 Week 1 loss to Baltimore, and the Chiefs looked fantastic ahead of their Week 2 game against Indianapolis. 2-2 looked to be a good start for the Colts. Now, 1-3, or even 0-4 is on the table, which means there could value in Steichen’s first NFL coach fired odds right now.

Zac Taylor (+1000)

I think Taylor could be in real trouble this season. He has a 52-63 record with the Bengals since 2019, and they haven’t been to the playoffs in three seasons. Joe Burrow has been in and out of the lineup, which is massive for the Bengals. Their defense has been bad to horrible for three years now.

Zac Taylor is so fired after this season https://t.co/FrhPRgDx2Q

— Alexander Buford (@ABuford17) August 21, 2026

If Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown stay healthy, the offense will be fine. The Bengals traded for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, among other signings. Cincinnati could be at least 4-1 before their Week 6 bye with home games against Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, and road games at Houston, Pittsburgh, and Miami. They have the league’s easiest schedule, and a 33-27 win over the Bucs at home was the start Taylor needed.

Anything below 3-2 in those first five games and Taylor’s first NFL coach fired odds could give you a nice return. The talent is there, but Taylor can’t let this season get away from him early.

Brian Schottenheimer (+2200)

Schottenheimer finished 7-9-1 in his first season with the Cowboys, and they had a great offense but a terrible defense, especially after trading Micah Parsons. But Schottenheimer will get another crack at it in 2026.

The Cowboys do have the fourth-toughest schedule in the league, but they start with road games against the Giants and Houston, as well as home games against Washington and Tampa Bay. There is also a Week 3 game against Baltimore in Brazil. A 28-20 loss to the Giants in Week 1 was disheartening, especially as the Cowboys were bullied by their NFC East rivals.

Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones is getting more impatient with not having a Super Bowl contender, and a 2-4 start could make Schottenheimer’s seat very hot by the time Dallas gets to back-to-back road games at Green Bay and Philadelphia.

Matt LaFleur (+3000)

LaFleur has been in charge of the Packers since 2019, compiling a 76-40-1 record, but they haven’t won the NFC North since 2021, and a playoff game since 2023. They also blew an 18-point lead to rival Chicago in last season’s wild-card round. Again, injuries played a role in a late-season swoon, especially to Jordan Love and Parsons, but that is ultimately on the head coach to deal with.

The Packers have three road games in their first four at Minnesota, the Jets, and Tampa Bay. They also have Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas at home in the first six weeks. However, the Packers allowed 29 unanswered points in a 39-22 loss to Minnesota, continuing a disturbing trend of Green Bay giving up leads in the second half. It was especially tough to watch for Packers’ fans as the Vikings had to replace an injured Kyler Murray with Carson Wentz, who threw three touchdowns.

Green Bay is generally patient with their coaches. But last season left a bad taste in the mouths of fans, and patience is running low around the league. If the Packers start 2-4 or worse, the front office might decide to pull the plug early, and that’s a ton of value for you in these NFL first coach fired odds.