Which NFL Coaches Will Be Fired on Black Monday?

Bill Belichick Shaking Hands

NFL Black Monday isn’t a day that many front-office personnel and coaches look forward to on the calendar. It’s the day after the regular season ends and front offices begin to clear out the dead weight starting with head coaches.

Typically, we see numerous head coaches fired on Black Monday and this year won’t be any different. In fact, NFL betting sites have released odds on the likely head coaches to receive their walking papers on Monday, January, 8, 2024.

Let’s take a closer look at this prop bet and make our predictions as to which NFL head coach is the next to get fired.

NFL Coaches Fired Odds

The following NFL odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Ron Rivera-300
Dennis Allen+500
Kevin O’Connell+600
Arthur Smith+700
Bill Belichick+2000
Mike Tomlin+2500
Matt Eberflus+2800
Sean Payton+3300
Mike Vrabel+4000

Washington Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera has the best odds of being the next NFL coach fired. At -300, Rivera has an implied probability of 75 percent to be the next NFL coach fired, according to sports betting sites.

With only two games remaining, GMs and owners will most likely wait to fire head coaches after the conclusion of the 2023-24 regular season on Black Friday. BetOnline has a few betting options that are firmly planted on the hot seat.

Ready to play at BetOnline?

NFL Coaches Fired In 2023

  • Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
  • Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers
  • Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

There have been three coaches already fired during the 2023-24 season. On November 6, Josh McDaniels was fired from his head coaching duties by Las Vegas Raiders owner Mark Davis. After failing a second time as a head coach, McDaniels figures to return as an offensive coordinator someplace else.

Only three weeks later, Frank Reich was fired after winning just one game in 11 outings as head coach of the Carolina Panthers. Owner David Tepper’s patience was running thin, as his team faltered to the worst record in the NFL.

Lastly, Brandon Staley was fired from the Chargers after a humiliating 63-21 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on December 14. With Staley already on the hot seat, the third-year head coach was pushed off the edge after his team gave up for everybody to see on Thursday Night Football.

NFL Coaches On The Hot Seat

Let’s take a closer look at each head coach’s chance at being fired at the end of the 2023-24 NFL regular season:

Ron Rivera (-300)

Ron Rivera was hired as the next Commanders’ head coach in January 2020. After finishing with a record of 90-82-1 and a trip to the Super Bowl with the Carolina Panthers in 2016, Rivera was fired from his coaching duties on December 3, 2019.

Rivera is expected to face a similar fate soon, though all he’s had to show for his time with the Commanders is a loss in the 2020 NFL Wild Card Round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His best regular season is a lukewarm mark of 8-8-1 from last season.

At 4-11, and a matchup against the Super Bowl betting favorites from San Francisco up next on the schedule, the situation isn’t expected to improve for Rivera by the end of the season.

Dennis Allen (+500)

New Orleans Saints’ head coach Dennis Allen is coaching for his job over the next two weeks. If the Saints win the NFC South and sneak into the playoffs, Allen might live to see past NFL Black Monday. 

However, the former Oakland Raiders’ bench boss anticipated having a much better year in his second season as head coach in New Orleans. Following a 7-10 record a season ago, it has been more of the same from the inconsistent Saints.

There is too much talent on the Saints roster for them not to be better than a 7-8 football squad. That is how ownership likely views Allen’s effort as head coach, as well.

Don’t be surprised if Allen is handed a pink slip after failing to get the most out of this talented roster.

Kevin O’Connell and Dennis Allen

Kevin O’Connell (+600)

In 2022, 38-year-old Kevin O’Connell was awarded his first head coaching job in the NFL. The former backup QB received rave reviews for his offensive coordinator position with the Los Angeles Rams in the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

O’Connell’s head coaching career started great in 2022. He led the Vikings to a record of 13-4 and an NFC North division title. Despite losing in the Wild Card Round to the New York Giants, the future looked bright for O’Connell.

But the Vikings have regressed, and are in big danger of missing the playoffs completely this season. Is that enough to part ways with O’Connell? There isn’t enough value on this prop bet at +600.

Due to Kirk Cousins’ injury and the Vikings having to shuffle through multiple QBs, O’Connell could receive a mulligan. However, if he does return, expect O’Connell to be on a short leash next year.

Arthur Smith (+700)

Falcons fans have been clamoring for Arthur Smith to receive the boot throughout the season. After a 24-16 loss to the Commanders and falling to .500 after a 2-0 start, the calls for Smith’s removal grew louder.

As we enter Week 17, Smith is still a member of the Falcons’ coaching staff. Like Allen, if Smith doesn’t win the NFC South and get the Falcons to the playoffs, he could be looking for a new job soon.

Bill Belichick (+2000)

Since 2002, Bill Belichick has won six Super Bowl titles along with 13 appearances in the AFC Conference Championship Game as head coach of the New England Patriots. He is regarded as one of the best head coaches in NFL history. However, not even Belichick is immune from being fired.

The Patriots are in the midst of one of their worst seasons in the Robert Kraft era. They are going into their second-last game of the season at 4-11 and guaranteed to finish last in the AFC East. Since Tom Brady left New England in 2019, the Patriots have been trending in the wrong direction.

Poor draft picks and a lack of progress from the offense might signal the end of Belichick’s historic tenure in Foxborough. Earlier this month, there were reports that Kraft already made up his mind to fire Belichick at the end of the season after a Week 10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts1.

Mike Tomlin (+2500)

From one longtime successful head coach in Foxborough to another in Pittsburgh. Tomlin’s head coaching seat is red-hot despite winning a Super Bowl and seven AFC North titles.

However, the Steelers have had three straight mediocre campaigns after winning the divisional title in 2020. If the Steelers don’t win their next two games, they’ll go without 10 wins in five of their last six seasons.

Steelers fans don’t accept mediocrity for too long. Tomlin is feeling the pressure, but he could have another season in him to turn things around.

Matt Eberflus (+2800)

In October, Chicago Bears’ head coach Matt Eberflus was one of the favorites to be fired. At +225 odds, Eberflus had the second-shortest odds behind the Raiders’ McDaniels.

Since then, the Bears have stabilized and become more competitive. Currently, they are 6-9 and dead last in the NFC North. This is an improvement from last year when Eberflus went 3-14 as a rookie head coach.

The defense has shown improvement throughout the season. However, Bears fans have wanted to see a more explosive offense.

Eberflus likely survives the NFL coaches fired on Black Monday, but year three has to be much better for the Bears.

Sean Payton (+3300)

Sean Payton enjoyed a plethora of success as head coach of the New Orleans Saints. Including seven NFC South titles, the Saints won the Super Bowl in 2010.

After taking a break from coaching, Payton returned to the sideline for the first time since the 2021-22 season. Payton’s first year with the Denver Broncos can be described as turbulent.

There has been little consistency under Payton. At 7-8, the Broncos have a small chance of making the playoffs, but Russell Wilson is reportedly being benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham to save cap space2.

It’s highly unlikely that Payton will be fired, but it doesn’t take away how disappointing he has been in his first year in Denver. With Wilson getting benched, we could see Payton with a new QB running his offense next season.

Mike Vrabel (+4000)

In 2018, Mike Vrabel burst onto the NFL head coaching scene with hype and expectations in Tennessee. After a 12-5 regular season and a trip to the AFC Divisional Round in 2021-22, Vrabel was named NFL Coach of the Year3.

However, just two years later, Vrabral is on the NFL coach-fired shortlist. After the 12-win campaign, the Titans slipped to 7-10 and will finish below .500 for the second consecutive season.

Vrabel should be fine on NFL Black Monday, but the front office will have a target on his back next year.

The Next NFL Head Coach Fired

Who do we predict to be the next NFL coach fired? In addition to rumors of Belichick’s demise, the Commanders have reportedly made up their mind regarding Rivera.

It will be much easier for owner Josh Harris to part ways with Rivera than for Kraft to fire Belichick immediately after the 2023-24 season. Belichick might be gone, but he will receive some time out of respect. Also, Kraft may allow Belichick to step down instead of an official firing.

Rivera should be prepared to pack his bags on NFL Black Monday. According to The Athletic’s NFL insider Dianna Russini, 61-year-old Rivera shouldn’t be surprised by his dismissal.

The report adds that Harris has already moved on from Rivera and that he is just waiting for the end of the season. Additionally, members of the Commanders’ front office are expected to be on the chopping block4.

In addition to Rivera and Belichick, the Falcons’ Smith and Saints’ Allen can’t be feeling comfortable. All face an uncertain offseason, with Rivera likely the first coach to fall on NFL Black Monday. Alternatively, Smith and Allen have solid value at their current odds as well. All three of these coaches will most likely get the axe on Black Monday.

The Bet

NFL Coaches To Be Fired On Black Monday

Ron Rivera is our choice to be the next head coach fired. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Rivera doesn’t even make it to Black Monday as the Commanders’ owner could fire him immediately following the Week 18 matchup.

With that said, Rivera won’t be the only coach fired at the conclusion of the 2023-24 NFL regular season. We also expect the following coaches to get the axe:

  • Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
  • Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons
  • Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

Although Eberflus has odds of +2500 as of this writing, his subpar coaching in Chicago is not going to cut it moving forward. For the second year in a row, the Bears will have the top pick in the NFL Draft. Last year, they traded the #1 pick to the Carolina Panthers.

Part of that deal was receiving the Panthers’ first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which happens to be the first overall selection. And this year, there’s a unanimous choice for the #1 pick – Caleb Williams.

Once again, the Chicago franchise is at a crossroad of staying with QB Justin Fields or drafting Caleb Williams out of USC. Either way, the Chicago ownership can’t be confident in Eberflus to develop either young quarterback.

The Bears need to bring in a new coach like Jim Harbaugh and show that they’re serious about winning. Eberflus has proven to be a failure at bringing along Fields and the rest of the offense.

Arthur Smith’s mishandling of Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and the quarterback situation will be his downfall. As for Dennis Allen, the Saints’ roster is too talented for a subpar coach. This team will have more success with a new offensive minded head coach.

NFL Coaches Fired In 2022

There were five coaches fired last season, two of which came during the 2022 NFL season. The first coach fired was Matt Rhule of the Carolina Panthers, who was fired after Week 5.

The second coach that was fired midseason was Frank Reich of the Indianapolis Colts, who ended up being hired by the Panthers during the 2023 head coaching cycle.

Here are all five coaches that were fired during the 2022 season:

  • Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers
  • Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos
  • Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
  • Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts
  • Lovie Smith, Houston Texans


  1. Report: Robert Kraft made decision to part ways with Bill Belichick after Week 10 loss to Colts | NBC Sports. Retrieved From “https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/report-robert-kraft-made-decision-to-part-ways-with-bill-belichick-after-week-10-loss-to-colts

  2. Broncos benching QB Russell Wilson for remainder of 2023 season to perverse financial flexibility | NFL.com. Retrieved From “https://www.nfl.com/news/broncos-benching-qb-russell-wilson-for-remainder-of-2023-to-preserve-financial-f

  3. Titans coach Mike Vrabel named 2021 AP NFL Coach of the Year | NFL.com. Retrieved From “https://www.nfl.com/news/titans-coach-mike-vrabel-named-2021-ap-nfl-coach-of-the-year

  4. Russini: What I’m hearing in NFL Week 15 on the league coaching carousel and more | The Athletic. Retrieved From “https://theathletic.com/5141675/2023/12/17/nfl-week-15-coaches-carousel/

Sub Categories:
About the Author
Marcus Mosher profile picture
Marcus Mosher
Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at Pro Football Focus, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today's Sports Media Group, covering the Las Vegas Raiders.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *