The 2025-26 NFL MVP odds have experienced a significant shake-up recently, as Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have overtaken the top spot. Are we set to see a surprising MVP winner this season, or will someone like Josh Allen or Jordan Love stage a big comeback?
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the betting favorites, highlight a few good sleepers, and make my NFL MVP predictions.
NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2025-26 are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | -205 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +195 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +1100 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +1400 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +10000 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +10000 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +15000 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +15000 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +20000 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | +20000 |
Matthew Stafford (-205) is comfortably the top favorite to win NFL MVP in 2025-26. Following Week 14, the Los Angeles Rams’ quarterback holds a 67.2% implied probability to capture his first MVP award. The younger Drake Maye (+195) of the New England Patriots remains in the running, but his odds have slipped after a bye week.
Maye’s NFL MVP odds regressed from -145 to +195, not at any fault of his own while having the week off. At +195 odds, the sophomore quarterback owns a 33.9% implied chance to finish as MVP. Aside from Stafford and Maye, there isn’t a strong contender to win this year. Green Bay Packers’ QB Jordan Love (+1100) has the third-best odds to win regular season MVP, representing just a 8.3% implied probability.
You can find updated NFL MVP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Awards > Regular Season MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2025-26
The MVP race is expected to be a tight battle and go deep into the 2025-26 schedule. Let’s break down the leading favorites, according to the best NFL betting sites:
Matthew Stafford (-205)
Stafford has put up some huge numbers throughout his career. He also has two Pro Bowl seasons and a Super Bowl title on his resume. However, the former Georgia Bulldog and Detroit Lion has never won an NFL MVP.
That could all change this season. Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career at 37 years old. Injuries have often followed him throughout the past, but he hasn’t been bothered by any ailments lately and is moving around like a 25-year-old.
Through 13 games and with a 10-3 record for the Rams, Stafford has passed for 3,354 yards, 35 touchdowns, and four interceptions on 66.7% completions. His 113.1 QB rating puts him a sliver ahead of Maye’s number.
Stafford was on a torrid pace before the Carolina Panthers, but he picked things back up in Week 14 against the Arizona Cardinals. The former Lion passed for 281 yards and three touchdowns on 71% passing. It was another game with no interceptions for Stafford, who now has 10 games in 2025-26 without a pick.
Earlier in the season, he was the first quarterback to throw four touchdowns and no interceptions in three consecutive starts against the Jaguars, Saints, and 49ers. Additionally, Stafford recently broke the record for most touchdown passes consecutively without throwing an interception.
Matthew Stafford joins an elite list of QBs 😤 pic.twitter.com/tyRzXWzYFu
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 8, 2025
Within minutes of breaking the record two weeks ago against the Carolina Panthers, he threw an interception, followed moments later by another. Stafford ended the game with 243 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions for one of his worst performances.
It was his first multi-interception game of the 2025-26 season. That was enough for bookies to move Stafford from the top spot in favor of Maye, but he bounced back this past week to overtake Maye.
Critics have accused Stafford of being a stat-padder throughout his career, but this season that hasn’t been the case. He’s winning games and leading the Rams on clutch drives. Although injuries have been a constant theme in his career, Stafford has managed to stay healthy after entering this year with concerns.
Drake Maye (+195)
Maye’s MVP credentials have skyrocketed from early September to December. The New England Patriots’ second-year quarterback is blossoming and far exceeding anyone’s expectations in his first season under head coach Mike Vrabel.
With the 11-2 Patriots on a bye in Week 14, Maye’s numbers remained stagnant this past week. This allowed Stafford to edge ahead of Maye at online sportsbooks this past week. I don’t know if Maye deserves to fall very far behind in the race due to a bye, though.
QBs to win 10 straight games with an 80+ passer rating in a single season prior to age 24 (Since 1950):
HOF Dan Marino
>Drake Maye pic.twitter.com/5uIEoz7jgH— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) December 2, 2025
Maye has passed for 3,412 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 71.5% completions. After another stellar performance in Week 13, Maye’s odds to win NFL MVP were on the move again.
The win secured Maye his 10th consecutive win on the season to bring the Patriots to 11-2 and first in the NFL. Additionally, Maye’s 111.9 QB rating ranks second in the league, just barely behind Stafford’s 113.1.
The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has also showcased some mobility on the field, as well. He’s rushed for 319 yards and two touchdowns this season. Above all, Maye’s decision-making is locked in. For a 23-year-old with less than two full years of experience, he is reading the field like a 10-year veteran.
The one mark against Maye is that he’s not a household name, but that is quickly changing with each passing week. The media attention, which was fairly quiet early this season, has started to focus heavily on Maye and the Patriots.
I’ve had faith in Maye for weeks now, but now everything else seems to be coming around in a hurry. That being said, with all eyes on Stafford in Week 14, and Maye off, the Rams’ quarterback received more money from the betting public.
Best NFL MVP Sleepers in 2025-26
There are two quarterbacks to consider as the best longshot NFL MVP betting picks. As we’ve seen this season, the odds can change in a hurry, so it’s worth putting down a couple of flier wagers:
2025-26 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
If I had a vote today, my pick would go to Maye. Along with his fantastic numbers, the Patriots are having the best success as a team they’ve had since 2019. There are many reasons why that has happened, but one of the largest is the play of Maye.
He has looked completely unfazed and unintimidated by the moment in Foxborough. Regardless of the opponent, Maye has stepped up and been a catalyst for the Patriots’ offense. He is already one of the best in the league in the pocket and at reading the field while under duress.
The Patriots’ and Rams’ quarterbacks are likely to battle down to the wire in the race for MVP. Both have landed significant blows at different points this season, and that competition will probably continue into the final stretch. Maye and Stafford are both deserving candidates, but I favor the Patriot.
I’ve bet on Maye at +425 and +180 earlier this season. As a result of Maye being on a bye week and Stafford coming off a solid outing, the value on the Patriots’ 23-year-old signal caller is undeniable at +195 odds.
Where to Bet on the NFL MVP Odds?
The best betting odds to win NFL MVP can be located at Bovada for the 2025-26 campaign. With prices on hundreds of players at excellent odds, Bovada is our top recommendation to bet on the league MVP.
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