The 2025-26 NFL MVP odds have experienced a significant shake-up recently, as Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have overtaken the top spot. Are we set to see a surprising MVP winner this season, or will someone like Josh Allen or Jordan Love stage a big comeback?
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the betting favorites, highlight a few good sleepers, and make my NFL MVP predictions.
NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2025-26 are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | -275 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +400 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +700 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | +900 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +12500 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +12500 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | +12500 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +15000 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +17500 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | +17500 |
After Week 15, Matthew Stafford (-275) has pulled further ahead in the NFL MVP race. His odds have shifted from -205 to -275, reflecting an implied probability increase from 67.2% to 73.3% over the last week.
Maye (+400) was -145 to win MVP three weeks ago, so the Patriots’ quarterback has fallen out of favor with bettors recently.
New England’s QB remains in the hunt, but Stafford’s MVP odds put him clearly in front for now. At +400, Maye still carries a 20% implied chance to be named league MVP.
Josh Allen (+700) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+900) have also seen their prices shorten this week, but I still see this as a two-man race between Stafford and Maye.
Smith-Njigba has skyrocketed from +20000 to +900 in an astonishing move, jumping from a 0.5% to a 10% implied probability from Week 14 to Week 15.
Allen’s odds saw more modest movement but still received a solid bump, shifting from +1400 to +700 and boosting his implied chances from 6.7% to 12.5%.
You can find updated NFL MVP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Awards > Regular Season MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2025-26
The MVP race is expected to be a tight battle and go deep into the 2025-26 schedule. Let’s break down the leading favorites, according to the best NFL betting sites:
Matthew Stafford (-275)
Stafford has put up some huge numbers throughout his career. He also has two Pro Bowl seasons and a Super Bowl title on his resume. However, the former Georgia Bulldog and Detroit Lion has never won an NFL MVP.
That could all change this season, and if you trust the odds following Week 15, it’s going to come to fruition in 2025-26. Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career at 37 years old. Injuries have often followed him throughout the past, but he hasn’t been bothered by any ailments lately and is moving around like a 25-year-old.
Through 14 games and with a 11-3 record for the Rams, Stafford has passed for 3,722 yards, 37 touchdowns, and five interceptions on 66.4% completions. His 112.2 QB rating puts him ahead of Maye and every other quarterback this season. At the moment, Stafford is the only quarterback with a rating above 110.
Stafford is coming off a strong performance against his former team in Week 15. He threw 368 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, with some clutch passes in a high-scoring track meet against the Lions. Maye didn’t have a great effort versus the Bills, enabling Stafford to extend his lead for MVP.
Is Matthew Stafford the MVP so far? pic.twitter.com/pg2QzClgbt
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 16, 2025
Stafford was on a torrid pace before the Carolina Panthers, but he picked things back up in Week 14 against the Arizona Cardinals. The former Lion passed for 281 yards and three touchdowns on 71% passing. It was another game with no interceptions for Stafford, who now has 10 games in 2025-26 without a pick.
Earlier in the season, he was the first quarterback to throw four touchdowns and no interceptions in three consecutive starts against the Jaguars, Saints, and 49ers. Additionally, Stafford recently broke the record for most touchdown passes consecutively without throwing an interception.
Within minutes of breaking the record three weeks ago against the Carolina Panthers, he threw an interception, followed moments later by another. Stafford ended the game with 243 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions for one of his worst performances.
It was his first multi-interception game of the 2025-26 season. That was enough for bookies to move Stafford from the top spot in favor of Maye, but he bounced back this past week to overtake Maye. Despite throwing an interception against the Lions, Stafford’s 2025-26 NFL MVP odds improved again from -205 to -275.
Critics have accused Stafford of being a stat-padder throughout his career, but this season that hasn’t been the case. He’s winning games and leading the Rams on clutch drives. Although injuries have been a constant theme in his career, Stafford has managed to stay healthy after entering this year with concerns.
Drake Maye (+400)
Maye’s MVP credentials have skyrocketed from early September to December. The New England Patriots’ second-year quarterback is blossoming and far exceeding anyone’s expectations in his first season under head coach Mike Vrabel.
While his odds to win MVP have slipped recently, his meteoric rise has been nothing short of impressive.
With the Patriots on a bye in Week 14, Maye’s numbers remained stagnant that week, while Stafford was on the field against a bad Cardinals team. This allowed Stafford to edge ahead of Maye at online sportsbooks, and the distance between the odds grew more after Maye lost to the Bills. I don’t know if Maye deserves to be discredited, but his numbers didn’t jump off the page in a crucial AFC East showdown.
Maye has passed for 3,567 yards, 23 touchdowns, and seven interceptions on 70.9% completions. After a stellar performance against the New York Giants in Week 13, Maye’s odds put him in the driver’s seat at -145. However, the bye week and questionable performance against the Bills sets him back.
In a 35–31 home loss to the Bills, Maye threw for 155 yards and an interception with no touchdowns. He had a chance to turn in a signature performance and complete a regular-season sweep of Buffalo, but this outing fell short of MVP caliber.
Maye had led the Patriots to 10 straight wins before stumbling in Foxborough. He’s still having an MVP-level season, but with Stafford continuing to post huge numbers, there’s no margin for error, and Maye slipped at the wrong time. His QB rating dipped from 111.9 to 109.1, a slight drop from his previous start.
The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has also showcased some mobility on the field, as well. He’s rushed for 362 yards and four touchdowns this season. Above all, Maye’s decision-making is locked in. For a 23-year-old with less than two full years of experience, he is reading the field like a 10-year veteran.
The one mark against Maye is that he’s not a household name, but that is quickly changing with each passing week. The media attention, which was fairly quiet early this season, has started to focus heavily on Maye and the Patriots.
Nevertheless, he might be too far behind Stafford after Week 15. He has a reasonably easy schedule to finish the season against the Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins. I have no doubts that Maye will play well to conclude the season, so it could be close!
Best NFL MVP Sleepers in 2025-26
There are two quarterbacks to consider as the best longshot NFL MVP betting picks. As we’ve seen this season, the odds can change in a hurry, so it’s worth putting down a couple of flier wagers:
2025-26 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
Stafford and Maye are equally deserving of the NFL MVP award in 2025-26. Allen has done a lot recently to improve his chances, but he was too mediocre at the midway mark to be a serious MVP candidate.
When it comes down to it, voters are likely to give Stafford the nod. I’ve previously bet on Maye to win at plus odds, but Stafford most likely wrapped up the award in Week 15.
If he has a terrible start against the Seattle Seahawks, there might be a window of opportunity for Maye. The Seahawks are a major challenge in a primetime road game, but Stafford should manage it well enough not to hurt his MVP chances significantly.
He has the numbers over Maye, the Rams are Super Bowl favorites, and at this point, voters will likely side with the veteran. After this past week, I expected Stafford’s MVP odds to be -550. So, at -275, there’s still some value in betting on the Rams quarterback.
Where to Bet on the NFL MVP Odds?
The best betting odds to win NFL MVP can be located at Bovada for the 2025-26 campaign. With prices on hundreds of players at excellent odds, Bovada is our top recommendation to bet on the league MVP.
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