NFL MVP 2026-27 Betting Preview: Winner Odds, Predictions, & Best Bets

Josh Allen (+675)

Josh Allen opens the 2026-27 preseason as the consensus favorite to win his second AP NFL MVP award. Coming off a 2025 campaign where he finished third in voting behind Stafford and Maye, Allen remains the standard for dual-threat consistency. It was the closest MVP vote since 2003, and we can expect another competitive race with Allen in the mix.

While pure pocket passers often rely on volatile stretches, Allen’s physical running style gives him a statistical floor that keeps him near the top of the sportsbooks. Statistically, Allen’s 2025 season showcased remarkable efficiency in Joe Brady’s offense.

Josh Allen avoids the sack and finds Keon Coleman for the first TD at the new Highmark Stadium!

Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/mNMo90BQze

— NFL (@NFL) August 15, 2026

He posted a career-high 69.4% completion rate while throwing for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, helping Buffalo finish 12-5. What strengthens his MVP case most is his dominance in the red zone. Allen led all quarterbacks with 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns, marking his third straight season with 12-plus ground scores.

With 39 total touchdowns, he continues to generate offense in ways one-dimensional passers cannot. Historical trends also favor quarterbacks on top-two conference seeds. Former MVPs like Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson show voters are willing to reward repeat winners when production aligns with team success.

Last year, the Bills at 12-5 didn’t pass the team success threshold. However, I look for them to improve on that record and finish higher in the standings after a brief downturn in the AFC East last year.  With offensive continuity under Brady and the addition of WR DJ Moore to the offense, Buffalo is positioned for another strong AFC run.

If Allen maintains his efficiency while pushing the Bills toward the No. 1 seed, his total production makes him one of the best NFL MVP bets in 2026-27.

Lamar Jackson (+875)

Lamar Jackson enters the 2026-27 preseason as Allen’s main challenger for the AP NFL MVP award. A two-time winner in 2019 and 2023, Jackson is still one of the league’s most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks, but the market is clearly pricing him with more caution than Allen.

His 2025 season showed both his efficiency and his limitations. In 13 games during Baltimore’s 8-9 campaign, he completed 63.6% of his passes for 2,549 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, good for a 103.8 passer rating.

Lamar Jackson 11/18, 238 YDS, 3 TDs vs PIT Tonight Week 18.pic.twitter.com/KZi6bDfpnp https://t.co/alBACnskS7

— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) January 5, 2026

But nagging leg injuries dragged down the rushing production that usually separates him from other MVP candidates, leaving him with just 349 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, which were career lows.

With 23 total touchdowns, his volume still fell short of what typically wins this award, especially against high-volume passers like Matthew Stafford or dual-threat peers like Allen.

A third MVP would put him next to Jim Brown, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady, and that kind of three-time run requires an overwhelmingly dominant campaign. Baltimore’s coaching change adds another layer of uncertainty, with Jesse Minter taking over for John Harbaugh.

Between the new system and the aftereffects of an injury-plagued year, Jackson looks like a strong bounce-back candidate, but a risky one to back at short preseason NFL MVP 2026-27 odds.

Joe Burrow (+925)

Cincinnati Bengals’ signal caller Joe Burrow opens the 2026-27 preseason with the third-shortest odds to win his first AP NFL MVP award. He’s right behind Allen and Jackson on an offensive-minded Bengals squad in Cincinnati.

However, below +1000 odds, Burrow is a risky preseason bet because his recurring injury history makes 17 healthy games feel more like the exception than the expectation. Burrow’s 2025 season was again interrupted by health issues, with a midseason turf toe injury and lingering wrist soreness limiting him to 12 games in a frustrating 9-8 campaign.

He still completed 67.8% of his passes for 2,910 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions when he played, but the bigger story was the familiar pattern of missed time.

Over his six-year career, Burrow has already suffered two season-ending injuries, including a torn ACL as a rookie in 2020 and a torn wrist ligament in 2023, along with calf, appendicitis, and toe problems that have repeatedly disrupted his rhythm.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow stretching out that left foot that he had surgery on last season on the sidelines right before halftime. @WDTN pic.twitter.com/ge09YBaAsK

— Joey DeBerardino (@JoeyDeBerardino) August 14, 2026

That durability concern is made worse by an offensive line that still looks shaky. Cincinnati has invested heavily in the unit, but it has yet to prove it can consistently protect him against top pass rushes. There is reason to believe that the line will be better in 2026-27, though I still have doubts.

Burrow continues to take too many hits, and until that changes, his injury risk remains high. Since MVP voters tend to reward near-perfect availability, backing him at +925 means taking on a lot of risk without getting enough of a discount.