The 2025-26 NFL MVP odds have experienced a significant shake-up recently, as Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have overtaken the top spot. Are we set to see a surprising MVP winner this season, or will someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes stage a big comeback?
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the betting favorites, highlight a few good sleepers, and make my NFL MVP predictions.
NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2025-26 are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | +300 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +300 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | +450 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +600 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +700 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +800 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | +1800 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +2200 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +2500 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | +2800 |
Heading into Week 11, Maye (+300) and Stafford (+300) are co-favorites to win NFL regular season MVP honors. Maye and Stafford have surged to the top, while previous favorite Josh Allen (+700) took a large fall from +150 to +700. At these prices, Allen’s implied chance of winning the NFL MVP award has crashed from 40% to 12.5%!
Meanwhile, Maye and Stafford share a 25% implied probability. Along with Allen’s NFL MVP odds cratering, Mahomes’ (+600) price has regressed after being the leading favorite two weeks ago at +175.
On the other hand, Indianapolis Colts’ RB Jonathan Taylor has exploded from +3000 to +450 in recent weeks – that’s a shift from 3.2% to 18.2%.
Another player getting respect is Seattle Seahawks’ QB Sam Darnold (+800), who has surged in the NFL MVP betting markets. His price has jumped markedly from +2200 to +800, for an improvement of 4.3% to 11.1%.
You can find updated NFL MVP betting odds at Bovada by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL Awards > Regular Season MVP.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2025-26
The MVP race is expected to be a tight battle and go deep into the 2025-26 schedule. Let’s break down the leading favorites, according to the best NFL betting sites:
Drake Maye (+300)
Maye’s MVP credentials have skyrocketed from early September to November. The New England Patriots’ second-year quarterback is blossoming and far exceeding anyone’s expectations in his first season under head coach Mike Vrabel.
How high is the ceiling for Drake Maye? 🤔
The ceiling is the roof 🤯 pic.twitter.com/TSsdCZOmQu
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 7, 2025
Maye is slinging the ball around and has the Patriots believing in themselves. With a record of 8-2, they lead the AFC East after years of misery following Tom Brady’s departure.
The Patriots have bounced between quarterbacks, including Cam Newton, Bailey Zappe, and Jacoby Brissett, but have finally found their replacement for Brady.
Maye has passed for 2,555 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions on 71.7% completions. After a clutch 28-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Maye’s QB rating ranks in the top 5 in the NFL.
The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has also showcased some mobility on the field, as well. He’s rushed for 283 yards and two touchdowns this season. Above all, Maye’s decision-making has been locked in. For a 23-year-old with less than two full years of experience, he is reading the field like a 10-year veteran.
The one mark against Maye is that he’s not a household name, but that is quickly changing with each passing week. The media appeal isn’t as strong on Maye as there are some other players, but it’s hard to ignore what he’s doing on the field.
Matthew Stafford (+300)
Stafford has put up some huge numbers throughout his career. He also has two Pro Bowl seasons and a Super Bowl title on his resume. However, the former Georgia Bulldog and Detroit Lion has never won an NFL MVP.
That could all change this season. Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career at 37 years old. Injuries have often followed him throughout in the past, but he hasn’t been bothered by any ailments lately and is moving around like a 25-year-old.
Through nine games and with a 7-2 record for the Rams, Stafford has passed for 2,427 yards, 25 touchdowns, and two interceptions on 67.1% completions. His 114.8 QB rating puts him just ahead of Maye.
Stafford is currently on a torrid stretch. He’s the first quarterback in NFL history to throw four touchdowns and no interceptions in three consecutive starts.
Matthew Stafford is the first player in NFL history with 4+ pass TD and 0 INT in 3 straight games 😮💨@RamsNFL | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/spcWCQwGl1
— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) November 10, 2025
This is shaping up to be an MVP campaign for Stafford, yet critics have accused him of being a stat-padder throughout his career. However, that claim doesn’t hold up this season, as he’s led the Rams down the field to win games multiple times.
The main concern remains Stafford’s injury history, particularly lingering back issues dating to his Lions days and a spinal contusion in 2022. He also dealt with an aggravated disc during preseason. Still, if Stafford stays healthy, he deserves to be in the MVP conversation.
Jonathan Taylor (+450)
The NFL MVP award has traditionally gone to quarterbacks, with Adrian Peterson in 2012 being the last running back to win it. Since the 2006 season, only Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson have received the honor for that position.
Last season, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley had a yeah to remember in Philadelphia, yet he was not seriously considered for MVP.
However, Jonathan Taylor is making a strong case for himself in 2025-26,. Taylor has led the Colts to a surprising 8-2 record atop the AFC South, powering the team’s revival in Indianapolis alongside QB Daniel Jones.
Entering Week 10, Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in rushing yards after contact with 663. He proceeded to gain 228 yards after contact against the Falcons, the most in any game since 2017.
He is now nearly 300 yards clear of any other player in the league.@JayT23 | #ForTheShoe pic.twitter.com/wm4AWh2FOo
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 10, 2025
He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 15 touchdowns over ten games — a remarkable feat. In Week 10, Taylor propelled the Colts to 244 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons, boosting his 2025-26 NFL MVP odds. But will MVP voters recognize his accomplishments?
If Taylor maintains this pace, it will be hard to overlook his candidacy, though a quarterback bias remains with players like Stafford and Maye performing at a high level.
Best NFL MVP Sleepers in 2025-26
There are two quarterbacks to consider as the best longshot NFL MVP betting picks. As we’ve seen this season, the odds can change in a hurry, so it’s worth putting down a couple of flier wagers:
2025-26 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
If I had a vote today, my pick would go to Maye. Along with his fantastic numbers, the Patriots are having the best success as a team they’ve had since 2019. There are several reasons why that has happened, but one of the largest is the play of Maye.
It’s going to be difficult to beat the Bills twice in one season – they will be coming for revenge. Still, the game will be in Foxborough, and the Bills have been far from unstoppable this season.
It’s within reason that Maye and the Patriots get it done, and his NFL MVP odds explode. I believe Taylor should be considered by voters, but the running bias might be too tough to overcome. Stafford’s injury concerns and ability to remain in his red-hot form scare me off that bet. In short, after betting on him at +425 last week, Maye remains my best 2025-26 NFL MVP betting pick!
Where to Bet on the NFL MVP Odds?
The best betting odds to win NFL MVP can be located at Bovada for the 2025-26 campaign. With prices on hundreds of players at excellent odds, Bovada is our top recommendation to bet on the league MVP.
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