NFL MVP 2025-26 Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, Best Bets

Josh Allen (+150)

In a first for Allen, the Bills’ signal caller collected the MVP award last season. Allen didn’t have the stats on Jackson or Burrow, but the Bills had the better record and were viewed as the most serious contender.

Additionally, Allen did it without WR Stefon Diggs and proved that he doesn’t need an elite No. 1 target to have success. It was a close call against Jackson, but Allen made more plays down the stretch to lead the Bills into the playoffs.

The 29-year-old from Firebaugh, CA, passed for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 63.6% completions. He also scampered for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns on 5.2 yards per attempt.

When the Bills needed a play, Allen was always there to answer the call. That was the deciding factor in the end for voters, who sided with Allen’s arm and legs. That’s exactly what the 29-year-old signal caller was able to prove once again versus the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season.

While it hasn’t translated to playoff success, Allen gained the advantage over Mahomes for regular season MVP after a 28-21 victory in Week 9. Aided by Allen’s strong decision-making, the Bills are 6-2 and a Super Bowl threat again this season.

During Week 9's Chiefs-Bills matchup, Josh Allen recorded the highest completion percentage of his career, while Patrick Mahomes recorded the lowest of his career. pic.twitter.com/kvOOKKusvp

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) November 3, 2025

The Bills are in a tight battle for top honors in the AFC East with the New England Patriots. New England currently owns the tiebreaker, but the Bills and Patriots have one more divisional matchup, which could decide the MVP as well.

Overall, Allen doesn’t have the most jaw-dropping numbers. He’s passed for 1,833 yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions on 70.4% completions. The dual-threat quarterback has also rushed for 280 yards and seven scores on the ground.

There have been some sour spots for Allen on his resume. He struggled to find traction with two interceptions in a 24-14 loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. Nevertheless, aside from a showdown with the Eagles, the rest of the Bills’ schedule is favorable.

If Allen pummels the Patriots in the rematch against Maye in December, expect that to potentially be the clinching moment.

Drake Maye (+425)

Maye’s MVP credentials have skyrocketed from early September to November. The New England Patriots’ second-year quarterback is blossoming and far exceeding anyone’s expectations in his first season under head coach Mike Vrabel.

Drake Maye passes Patrick Mahomes for the longest streak of games with 200+ pass yards and a 100+ passer rating by a player under the age of 24 all-time (8) ✅@Patriots | #NEPats pic.twitter.com/HlHvTcEKch

— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) November 3, 2025

Maye is slinging the ball around and has the Patriots believing in themselves. With a record of 7-2, they lead the AFC East after years of misery following Tom Brady’s departure.

The Patriots have bounced between quarterbacks, including Cam Newton, Bailey Zappe, and Jacoby Brissett, but have finally found their replacement for Brady.

Maye has passed for 2,285 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions on 74.1% completions. His 116.9 QB rating ranks second, behind only Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson who has only played in five games.

The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has also showcased some mobility on the field. He’s rushed for 270 yards and two touchdowns this season. Above all, Maye’s decision-making has been locked in. For a 23-year-old with less than two full years of experience, he is reading the field like a 10-year veteran.

The one mark against Maye is that he doesn’t have the household name recognition of Allen or Mahomes. The media appeal isn’t as strong on Maye as there are some other players, but it’s hard to ignore what he’s accomplishing.

Shame on you for not seeing Drake Maye’s value — our guy @JoeDeleone breaks it down pic.twitter.com/gmTEZWOs8n

— The Sports Geek (@TheSports_Geek) October 21, 2025

Like the Bills, the Patriots’ schedule isn’t the toughest to the end of the season. Maye should continue to put up impressive numbers, and if the Patriots beat the Bills for a second time, he has to be the frontrunner!

Patrick Mahomes (+425)

The 2025-26 NFL MVP betting odds for Mahomes took a dive after he left Buffalo with a loss in Week 9. Mahomes was the leading favorite prior to the 28-21 loss. The Chiefs’ two-time MVP winner had one of the worst performances of his career in the loss.

Mahomes was frustrated with just 44.1% completions in 250 yards passing with an interception. He was pressured constantly and heard footsteps for the majority of that game. Despite the poor showing and loss, Mahomes’ stat line still holds up.

A.J. Epenesa laid a major hit on Patrick Mahomes 😮 pic.twitter.com/a1RRWNcRg0

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 2, 2025

He has tossed 17 touchdowns and five interceptions on 64.6% completions for 2, 349 yards. As a runner, Mahomes rushed for 285 yards and four scores through nine matchups.

It’s impossible to count Mahomes out of the MVP race, and if Allen falters, which he’s done at times this season, the three-time Super Bowl champ should be right there at the wire. That said, the loss against the Bills is always going to be a major blemish on his resume.

If Allen struggles, it may very well prompt voters to look at Maye for MVP instead of Mahomes. The Chiefs have some tough matchups remaining on the schedule, including against the Broncos, Colts, and Texans’ strong defenses.