2023-24 NFL Conference Championship Odds and Predictions

Jackson Mahomes

The NFL conference championship games signify the final step before reaching the Super Bowl. Win the NFC Conference Championship and AFC Conference Championship and it’s off to Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58.

We are analyzing the opening NFL conference championship odds at NFL betting sites for the NFC and AFC title games. Head below for our AFC Conference Championship and NFC Conference Championship predictions and best prop bets.

NFL Conference Championship Odds

The following 2023-24 NFL conference championship betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Kansas City Chiefs (+150) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-175)Ravens -3 (-120)O/U 44 (-110)
Detroit Lions (+250) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-300)49ers -7 (-105)O/U 51 (-110)

The San Francisco 49ers remain the favorite to win it all at Super Bowl betting sites. At -330 and -7 (-110) versus the Detroit Lions, the 49ers have the largest NFL conference championship odds. The 49ers have an implied probability of 76.7 percent to book their ticket to Super Bowl 58.

Oddsmakers foresee a closer matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens have an implied probability of 63.6 percent to edge out the Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

Where To Bet On The NFL Conference Championship Games?

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AFC Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs (+150) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-175)Ravens -3 (-120)O/U 44 (-110)

The NFL finally got their dream matchup in the AFC Championship: Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes for the right to go to the first-ever Super Bowl in Las Vegas.

Since Jackson entered the league in 2018, the two have been compared consistently. Mahomes has had the advantage over Jackson in their careers, but the Raven has a chance to break through and have his moment to bask in Super Bowl glory.

In the NFL Divisional Round, Jackson ran all over the Houston Texans for a 34-10 win. Jackson finished with 100 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries1. My biggest concern for the Chiefs is the defensive injuries that they incurred last week.

Designed to be the spy defender on Josh Allen, linebacker Willie Gay Jr. exited with a neck injury and did not return to the game. In addition to Gay Jr., safety Mike Edwards and cornerback Trent McDuffie’s status is unknown for the AFC Championship.

Similar to how we weren’t confident in the Bills’ banged-up defense deterring Mahomes, Jackson should find room to run in the AFC Championship. Additionally, the Ravens’ defense is a significantly tougher assignment for the Chiefs.

This is where a lack of explosive receivers will hinder the Chiefs. They didn’t need them against the Dolphins and Bills, but it’s a requirement against the Ravens. Overall, the Ravens were fifth in the regular season in total team defense2.

Against the Texans, the defense held C.J. Stroud to just 175 yards passing. Also, the Texans gained a measly 38 yards on the ground. It is the best defensive performance in the NFL Playoffs thus far this season3.

The players that were wide open for Mahomes against the Bills likely won’t be there in the AFC Championship. Tyreek Hill would have been nice to have opposite Rashee Rice in this spot. However, as it stands, Mahomes should find it tough to operate at Baltimore.

The Harbaugh brothers are only two wins away from celebrating two major football championships roughly within a month of one another. We are riding Jackson and the Ravens’ defense to a win in the AFC Championship.

The Bet

NFC Conference Championship

Detroit Lions (+250) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-300)49ers -7 (-105)O/U 51 (-110)

In the NFC Championship, we have what should be a good one between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.

As our preseason pick to win the NFC North, the Lions were expected to be a quality team. However, there weren’t many pundits that had the Lions reaching the NFC Championship.

Is it really a surprise? With arguably the best offensive line in football, and a locked-in Jared Goff, this isn’t much of a shocker.

The Lions’ seventh overall pick from the 2021 NFL Draft has been a major contributor to this run and has to play a big role in the NFC Championship. Left tackle Penei Sewell will line up opposite 49ers’ pass rusher Nick Bosa.

Sewell versus Bosa is the matchup of the game. When Goff has time to throw, he is one of the more accurate QBs in the NFL. Throw him out of a rhythm, and there is a case for the 49ers pulling away by double digits.

Despite a tough matchup against Bosa, it’s tough to distrust Sewell’s ability against a fierce pass rusher. Goff likely has just enough time to spray the ball around to a talented repertoire of weapons.

Lions’ wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta are finding ways to get open and make plays. Also, Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield provides Detroit with a spark plug as a runner or pass catcher.

Goff has passed for 564 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions in the NFL Playoffs4. While offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is likely accepting a head coaching job following this run, Goff and Johnson have been a match made in heaven.

The main concern for the 49ers has to be Deebo Samuel’s shoulder injury. The dynamic playmaker left the Packers favoring his shoulder. He tried to return, but didn’t make it far.

With Samuel on the field, 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy is a different player. Samuel missed time earlier in the season, and they immediately had their worst stretch of the season. The 49ers lost three consecutive games against the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals.

Samuel will likely start in the NFC Championship, but his effectiveness could be questionable. This will allow the Lions’ defense to give more attention to running back Christian McCaffrey.

When Samuel left against the Packers, it was clear that Purdy looked less comfortable without his favorite target, who is excellent in YAC (Yards After Catch). Several pages of the 49ers’ offensive playbook are not as effective without a healthy Samuel — especially wide receiver screens.

In 2023-24, the Lions have been one of the best bets against the spread (ATS) this season. They are 13-6 ATS and 2-1 ATS as a road underdog. The 49ers are just 3-6 ATS at Levi’s Stadium. It’s not the most intimidating stadium, and the Lions should have plenty of fans in attendance.

Under head coach Dan Campbell’s leadership, the Lions have shown a never-quit attitude. We should see the same in the Lions’ first appearance in the NFC Championship since the early 1990s. The 49ers likely notch a 3 or 4-point win to advance for a rematch against the Ravens at Super Bowl 58, but laying a touchdown appears like too many points.

The Bet

NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets

Football betting sites have released hundreds of different AFC and NFC Conference Championship prop bets for Sunday. We are selecting our best NFL conference championship player props:

Lamar Jackson Total Rushing Yards

Over 59.5-115
Under 59.5-115

Jackson has waited a while for this opportunity in the AFC Championship. Since entering the league, the former Louisville Cardinal has faced immense pressure to deliver another Super Bowl to the franchise.

In his first conference championship game, expect Jackson to do his best to outshine Mahomes. He will do what he does best on the ground as a dual-threat QB.

Gay Jr. should be good to go for the AFC Championship, but it would be a serious blow if Edwards doesn’t get out of concussion protocol. Edwards is a versatile safety who would help against Jackson.

The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been fantastic against the run. They are 18th in the league, with 114.9 yards rushing allowed per game5. The Bills’ Allen gashed the Chiefs for 72 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in the Divisional Round6.

Put Jackson on the field, and he likely eclipses 100 yards in that game. That’s likely not the case this week, but 70 yards rushing is well within reach against the Chiefs.

The Bet

Jared Goff Total Passing Yards

Over 260.5-115
Under 260.5-115

If you are confident in the Lions keeping up with the 49ers, then you should probably look into the Goff passing yards prop bet. While the Lions will carve out some yardage with Gibbs on the ground, they have to win this game with Goff’s red-hot arm.

The 49ers are not a perfect team in the secondary. They have some tremendous run-stoppers, including Fred Warner, but there is room in the secondary for the Lions to have success. The 49ers have yielded an average of 213.1 passing yards per game, for 13th in the NFL7.

Those are fine numbers, but the 49ers are not a Top 10 secondary. Goff has been at his best in the postseason. He passed for at least 277 yards against the Rams and Buccaneers. Going back to the regular season, Goff has averaged 281.6 yards passing per game in his last six starts.

Campbell has to put his trust in Goff to win this game. We should see Goff deliver with some big plays downfield at Levi’s Stadium. With that in mind, consider Goff’s NFC Conference Championship prop bet to go Over the number.

The Bet

Jameson Williams Total Receiving Yards

Over 28.5-115
Under 28.5-115

The Lions’ deep threat target, Jameson Williams, isn’t getting much respect in the NFC Championship. Despite Williams possibly hitting this prop on one reception, his receiving yards total is set at just 28.5 yards.

While the 49ers are trying to contain St. Brown and LaPorta, Williams should have a chance to excel deep downfield. The Alabama speedster has notched a minimum of 35 yards receiving in four of his previous five outings8.

Goff and Williams have generated better chemistry toward the end of the season. The Lions are aware of his big play potential and will look to get him the ball in the biggest game of the year. At 28.5 receiving yards, Williams is a great pick to go Over on Sunday.

The Bet

Best Bets NFL Conference Championships

We have one NFL conference championships best bet on our card this week. After being overshadowed by Mahomes for years in the postseason, expect Jackson to outduel Mahomes and finish on top in the AFC.

There hasn’t been a better opportunity for Jackson to silence his critics at last. He’s at home in Baltimore and has one of the best defenses in the NFL backing him up. Blowing out the Texans by 24 points is no easy task, but the Ravens did it without even playing their best football.

The Ravens played mediocre football in the first half and still managed to oust the Texans by a score of 34-10. If the Ravens start fast and play a complete game for four quarters, Mahomes likely doesn’t have the weapons to consistently beat Baltimore’s stout defense.

For our best bets in the NFL conference championships, we like the Jackson rushing prop bet and the Ravens to cover -3 points.

The Bet
  1. Ravens 34-10 Texans (Jan 20, 2024) Box Score | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547755

  2. NFL Football Stats – NFL Team Opponent Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-yards-per-game

  3. 2023 NFL Defense Total Team Stat Leaders | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-yards-per-game

  4. Jared Goff 2023 Stats per Game – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3046779/jared-goff

  5. NFL Football Stats – NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game

  6. Chiefs 27-24 Bills (Jan 21, 2024) Final Score | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401547758

  7. NFL Football Stats – NFL Team Opponent Passing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com. Retrieved From “https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-passing-yards-per-game

  8. Jameson Williams 2023 Stats per Game – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/4426388/jameson-williams

About the Author
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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