The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize betting odds have witnessed a marked shift since being released months ago! As new contenders emerge in the spotlight, I examine the latest prices and update my picks to win the prestigious price in October.
Let’s go through them and dissect the most likely winners before I reveal my best 2025 Nobel Peace Prize predictions.
2025 Nobel Peace Prize Winner Odds
The following 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| CANDIDATE | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -125 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | +275 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | +1200 |
| Antonio Guterres | +1600 |
| Greta Thunberg | +1800 |
| David Attenborough | +2000 |
| European Union (EU) | +2000 |
| NATO | +2000 |
| International Criminal Court (ICC) | +2000 |
| Jose Andres | +2000 |
| United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees | +2000 |
Donald Trump (-125) is the odds-on favorite to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize odds suggest that he has a 55.6% implied probability to win, so a better than a coin flip’s chance!
In May, Trump had a +500 price to win at the best Nobel Prize betting sites. This positioned Trump behind Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s price of +300. Since then, Zelenskyy’s odds to win the Nobel Peace Prize have regressed hard to +1200, while Trump has skyrocketed.
Meanwhile, Yulia Navalnaya’s (+275) Nobel Peace Prize odds have flown up the board after she was a +2000 longshot this past spring. In other words, her implied probability has shifted from 4.8% to 26.7% in a huge shift.
Along with Zelesnkyy’s regression, Greta Thunberg’s (+1800) and David Attenborough’s (+2000) odds to win have slipped recently from +800. So, who has the upper hand?
You can find up-to-date 2025 Nobel Peace Prize odds at Bovada by navigating to All Sports > Entertainment > World Events > Nobel Prizes.
Nobel Peace Prize 2025 Favorites
I have identified three top contenders to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, according to the latest odds at Bovada. According to online betting sites, there are some notable changes at the top of the board, so let’s dig in below!
Donald Trump (-125)
In a massive reversal, President Trump has the leading odds to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Money is flowing in for Trump to win, thanks to his recent involvement in efforts to end worldwide conflicts.
There are a handful of events where Trump has claimed some credit for de-escalating tensions. Most notably, between India and Pakistan, Iran, Israel and moderate Arab nations, Israel-Gaza, and Ukraine and Russia.
Recently, on his trip to London, Trump once again announced that he had solved the India-Pakistan conflict between the two nuclear powers. According to Trump, he used trade as leverage to get countries to cooperate. However, Indian PM Narendra Modi denies that Trump performed any mediation.
India's Modi tells Trump that India and Pakistan reached a ceasefire through military talks, not US mediation https://t.co/5ryrb6f83q pic.twitter.com/Bo1rE1f0Jb
— Reuters (@Reuters) June 18, 2025
In 2020, Trump was at the forefront of negotiating the Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE, and other Arab states. The goal was to reduce tensions and lay the foundation for a relationship with Israel and the Middle East.
That being said, Palestine was not included in the discussions, and the conflict with Israel has renewed scrutiny of Benjamin Netanyahu’s regime. Trump’s solutions for Gaza likely don’t align with the Nobel Peace Prize committee, either.
In 2025, Trump proposed turning the land into the Riviera of the Middle East by displacing Palestinians after leveling it. Additionally, he’s shown interest in “taking” Gaza over, turning it into a “freedom zone”.
Trump says that the Gaza Strip will be a “freedom zone” once the Palestinians are removed.
“I don’t understand why Israel ever gave it up.” – Trump pic.twitter.com/ilxlAPkRbq
— Morgan Ariel (@itsmorganariel) April 7, 2025
Trump hosted President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and has made multiple attempts to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but the war a resolution still looks unlikely in 2025.
Lastly, Trump failing to rule out military intervention to invade Greenland, and growing tensions with Venezuela, have to hurt his Nobel Peace Prize resume. Nevertheless, the odds have Trump as the most likely winner, and bettors are giving him strong support with their 2025 Nobel Peace Prize picks!
Yulia Navalnaya (+275)
If the committee is interested in riling up Putin and Russia, they’ll vote for Alexei Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya. She is one of the most prominent public figures opposing Russia’s government.
Continuing Alexei’s mission after he died, Yulia has been at the forefront of fighting against Russian aggression. Moreover, she is the chairperson of the Human Rights Foundation and the Anti-Corruption Foundation.
Yuli has routinely called for Russians to stand up against Putin’s government for a free and stronger country.
“We know exactly what we are fighting for – a future Russia that Alexey dreamed of – free, peaceful, beautiful. It’s possible,” She said in a video posted on YouTube. “Let’s do everything we can to make his dreams come true.”
Ultimately, Yulia is interested in becoming the future Russian President after Putin loses power. Currently living in exile outside of Russia, the 49-year-old recently announced that Alexei’s death was the result of poisoning in a Russian prison.
Yulia is one of the most likely options, and I can’t fault backing her at +275, but there is better value available.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy (+1200)
President Zelenskyy has been floated as one of the frontrunners to win the Nobel Peace Prize since 2022. Despite being a betting favorite as well,he hasn’t received the prestigious honor.
Zelenskyy has been at the helm as President of Ukraine since the full-blown Russian invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022. The conflict has been ongoing since 2014 and escalated when Russia annexed Crimea on March 18, 2014.
President Vladimir Putin has been adamant about expanding Russian territory and annexing more Ukrainian land. Despite two high-stakes meetings with Trump in the Oval Office and Trump hosting Putin in Alaska, there haven’t been any breakthroughs.
We are now conducting one of our counter-offensive operations at the Donetsk direction – in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillia areas.
Russian losses just since the start of this counter-offensive – in the Pokrovsk area alone, in these past weeks – are already more than 2,500, of which… pic.twitter.com/C1ijyOgKc1
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 18, 2025
From nightly barrages of drones fired at Ukraine, and Zelenskyy announcing counter-offensive operations, this doesn’t feel closer to ending than it did months before the summit in Alaska.
If a ceasefire were signed or the war came to an end, perhaps Zelenskyy would be a shorter favorite to win the Nobel Peace Prize. However, nothing has really changed substantially from past years, so I’m going to pass.
Dark Horses for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
The Nobel Peace Prize 2025 winner odds have a couple of gems flying under the radar in the early stages at entertainment betting sites.
Let’s analyze these long shots briefly and provide more suggestions for your Nobel Peace Prize betting card:
2025 Nobel Peace Prize Winner Prediction and Pick
Trump is the favorite to win the Nobel Peace Prize, but there are some things working against him. While he’s been adamant about ending the war in Ukraine, and has assisted in resolutions elsewhere, I believe he needs to be at the negotiation table when a deal is signed between Russia and Ukraine.
If Russia and Ukraine end the war, expect Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize odds to skyrocket even further. Rightly so, because that would push him to the top and likely win the award without too much guessing.
That said, the war doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to ending in the near future. With this in mind, laying -125 odds on Trump isn’t the best bet in this spot.
In fact, none of the top favorites are particularly appealing to me. There is better value on one of the longshots than Trump or Yulia. Andrés is not only one of the best underdog wagers, but the best bet overall this year.
His work throughout the world, some of it that goes unnoticed, warrants votes from the committee in Norway. He’s a deserving winner, and at +2000, a fantastic bet as one of the best Nobel Peace Prize betting picks.
Where to Bet on the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize Odds?
Certain offshore sportsbooks have odds for the Nobel Peace Prize 2025. It’s important to select a reputable betting site that is currently offering the best prices for this unique market.
Currently, Bovada has an opening menu of 15 candidates to bet on for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025. As we continue to get closer to the announcement next fall, more names will be added to the list, so monitor the board closely!
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