The Falcons became instant favorites in the offseason NFC South odds for 2024-25 when they signed free agent QB Kirk Cousins. Atlanta has been criticized for their draft strategy, but they are still the favorites to win the division this year according to the best NFL sportsbooks.
The Buccaneers, Saints, and Panthers could all take a step forward this season, though, and compete for the division title.
This guide will break down the odds to win the NFC South for all four teams in the division. I analyze what each franchise did in the preseason before sharing my NFC South predictions for 2025.
NFC South 2024-2025 Winner Odds
Here are the current NFC South winner odds, courtesy of BetUS Sportsbook.
| Team | NFC South Odds | Record Last Year |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | -120 | 7-10 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +300 | 9-8 |
| New Orleans Saints | +350 | 9-8 |
| Carolina Panthers | +1100 | 2-15 |
The NFC South was arguably the worst division in the NFL last season. Tampa Bay won the division with just a 9-8 record, and the Panthers finished with the worst record in the league at 2-15. The division should be better this year, and at least one team from the South is guaranteed a playoff spot.
Atlanta made one of the biggest moves of the offseason by signing QB Kirk Cousins. The move should help them maximize the strong collection of offensive players. BetUS has the Falcons listed as the -120 favorite to win the NFC South this year.
Tampa Bay, the reigning division champions, has the second-best odds to win the NFC South at +300. They are closely followed by the Saints, who finished with the same record as the Bucs last year, at +350. Carolina rounds out the division as a distant fourth at +1100.
Atlanta Falcons (-120)
- NFC South Position in 2023-24: 3rd
- Key Players In: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney, QB Michael Penix Jr.
- Key Players Out: TE Jonnu Smith, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, DE Calais Campbell
- Head Coach: Raheem Morris
The Falcons soared to the top of the NFC South betting odds as soon as they signed QB Kirk Cousins. Atlanta has been searching for an answer at QB since the hay days of Matt Ryan came to an end.
The team was widely scrutinized for drafting QB Michael Penix, Jr in the first round but is still the favorite to win the division at -120.
The Big 3.@AtlantaFalcons | #Falcons pic.twitter.com/zy0uWEqA4p
— FFYT (@_FootballFilms_) June 24, 2024
Atlanta had their choice of defenders with the eighth overall pick but decided to add depth at quarterback instead. Cousins is recovering from a torn Achilles, but he should be ready to go by the start of the season. If Cousins does miss time, then Penix should be ready to start for the Falcons this season.
In addition to adding two potential starting QBs, the Falcons also acquired WR Darnell Mooney and signed multiple veteran defensive players, including cornerbacks Kevin King and Antonio Hamilton.
Atlanta also made a change at head coach this offseason. They fired Arthur Smith and hired Raheem Morris to lead the team. If Cousins or Penix can provide above-average QB play, the Falcons should cruise to a division title.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+300)
- NFC South Position in 2023-24: 1st
- Key Players In: C Graham Barton, FS Jordan Whitehead, CB Bryce Hall
- Key Players Out: OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Devin White, C Ryan Jensen
- Head Coach: Todd Bowles
Tampa Bay went 4-1 in its last five games to win the division title last year. Their success down the stretch, combined with the Falcons’ 1-4 skid, was enough to lock up the division and a playoff spot for the Buccaneers. Despite retaining most of its big-name offensive free agents, the Buccaneers are not favored to repeat as division champs.
Online bookies have Tampa Bay listed at +300 in the latest NFC South champion odds. The Buccaneers lost Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen to retirement. Defensive leaders Shaq Barrett, Devin White, and others left the team in free agency.
Tampa Bay used their first round pick on a new center, Graham Barton. However, they could not cover all their losses through the draft and had a lackluster free agency.
The franchise spent most of free agency focusing on re-signing its stars from last season. The Buccaneers were able to retain both QB Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans this offseason. The former played well last season but has not had back-to-back winning seasons in his career!
New Orleans Saints (+350)
- NFC South Position in 2023-24: 2nd
- Key Players In: OT Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, DE Chase Young
- Key Players Out: WR Michael Thomas, QB Jameis Winston, OL Andrus Peat
- Head Coach: Dennis Allen
New Orleans nearly won the division last year, finishing with the same 9-8 record as Tampa Bay. However, The Saints had a worse conference record, so they lost the race for the division title and missed out on the postseason entirely.
This move by Chase Young 😮💨
pic.twitter.com/BBGjeRVN8h— PFF (@PFF) February 12, 2024
Despite signing pass rusher Chase Young, it will be challenging for the Saints to compete for the division title this year. The team lost veterans like quarterback Jameis Winston and offensive lineman Andrus Peat. WR Michael Thomas also left in free agency.
Winston and Thomas have both struggled with injuries in recent years, but they still produced when healthy. New Orleans signed free agent QB Derek Carr last season, but he had a rough first season in New Orleans.
The Saints are still handicapped by their salary cap issues, so most of their additions came via the draft. Rookies OT Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, and QB Spencer Rattler could all play major roles on this team in the future. In the short term, though, New Orleans will struggle to deliver consistent results.
Carolina Panthers (+1100)
- NFC South Position in 2023-24: 4th
- Key Players In: WR Diontae Johnson, LB K’Lavon Chaisson, RB Jonathan Brooks
- Key Players Out: LB Brian Burns, TE Hayden Hurst, CB C.J. Henderson
- Head Coach: Dave Canales
Rounding out the division are the Carolina Panthers, who are listed at +1100 in the latest NFC South odds. The Panthers had the worst record in the NFL in 2023-24 but did not have the benefit of the first overall pick. They traded it to Chicago last year for the right to draft QB Bryce Young.
He should be able to take a step forward in his second year in the league. However, the rest of the team still lacks sufficient talent to push for a division crown.
They drafted RB Jonathan Brooks and traded for WR Diontae Johnson, but the offense still needs plenty of help. Johnson was underwhelming as the WR1 in Pittsburgh, and Brooks is recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in November.
The Panthers lost veterans like TE Harden Hurst and CB C.J. Henderson. They also traded away their best player, LB Brian Burns, for significantly less than they could have received last year. New Head Coach Dave Canales has his work cut out for him with this talent-depleted roster.
NFC South 2025 Predictions and Best Bet
The NFC South has been one of the most disappointing divisions in recent years. The Saints and Buccaneers had the best records in the division last season at just 9-8. Tampa Bay won the South and even won a playoff game last year, but who will win the NFC South in 2024-2025?
Despite their relative success last season, there is a reason why most predictions for the NFC South do not have the Buccaneers favored to win again. The Falcons added two new quarterbacks, and the division is theirs to lose this season.
Atlanta is listed as the -120 favorite to win the NFC South this year. With their QB issues seemingly addressed, it is hard to go against them. Atlanta should win the division and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
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