Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, November 1
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | +350 | Bovada |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | +550 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for November 1 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest best MLB betting sites‘ odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for November 2:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+350) – Toronto Blue Jays
In the ultimate do‑or‑die Game 7 showdown between the LA Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays, backing the HR prop at +350 on slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looks like real value.
Guerrero has already shown he can hang long balls in high‑stakes situations, reaching into the seats in his last appearance when he squared off against Shohei Ohtani in the World Series. Ohtani is the probable starter to open Game 7.
Vladdy Jr. and Shohei both knew immediately 😲 pic.twitter.com/OXAdIIPv0G
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 29, 2025
That kind of big‑moment capability matters. He’s hit .364 with two home runs in just 11 at‑bats versus Ohtani. Then there’s his rampage in the postseason, with a .412 average, eight home runs and 15 RBIs in 68 at‑bats while rewriting the record books.
If the matchup shifts to Tyler Glasnow at any point or gets the starting nod, Guerrero’s ready there, too, as he’s hit .316 with a long ball in 16 at‑bats against Glasnow. All the signs line up: elite recent form, clutch mindset, strong specific matchups.
In this win‑or‑die spot, Guerrero is poised to deliver again and launch another homer.
Freddie Freeman (+550) – Los Angeles Dodgers
With the World Series on the line in Game 7, Freddie Freeman’s +550 HR prop stands out as a high-upside swing worth backing.
Freeman already left his mark on this series with a dramatic 18th-inning walk-off in Game 3 at Dodger Stadium. It was a reminder of why he was last year’s World Series MVP.
FREDDIE FREEMAN WALK-OFF HOME RUN IN THE 18TH INNING! #WORLDSERIES pic.twitter.com/wD1xbRxDbC
— MLB (@MLB) October 28, 2025
Now he draws a familiar opponent in Max Scherzer, and history leans Freeman’s way. In 56 career at-bats against Scherzer, he’s taken him deep three times.
That track record, paired with Freeman’s poised postseason presence, is worth noting. He thrives in the biggest moments, and this is the biggest one yet. Scherzer has struggled with the deep ball, allowing six in his last four starts.
At this number, the value on a Freeman bomb is too good to pass up at +550.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Lucky Rebel.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- Lucky Rebel: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Batter Props.
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