Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, June 14
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | +500 | Bovada |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +250 | Bovada |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +475 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for June 14 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for June 14:
Trea Turner (+500) – Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies cooled off the Blue Jays with an 8-0 blowout at Citizens Bank Park last night. Kyle Schwarber went deep to cash a +275 ticket in yesterday’s matchup in Philadelphia. With Bowden Francis on the bump, expect another big effort from the bats.
Francis is getting destroyed on the mound against power hitters. The Blue Jays’ starter is second-worst in MLB, with 19 home runs allowed this season. He’s pitched over 25 fewer innings than Zack Littell, who is worst in the league with 21 long balls. Additionally, Francis has gotten torched for a 6.12 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.
I don’t know how much longer the Blue Jays can keep sending Francis to the mound, but he’s been a huge liability. Max Scherzer’s return to the rotation couldn’t come soon enough. Over his last two starts, Francis yielded four long balls in just five innings!
Trea Turner to straightaway center for a leadoff home run! pic.twitter.com/lVxrNVBesR
— MLB (@MLB) May 24, 2025
Trea Turner has one home run and two RBIs against Francis in six at-bats. Overall, he’s connected for a .302 batting average and seven home runs in 67 games in 2025. With Francis on the mound, Turner is one of the best bets to hit a home run today!
Aaron Judge (+250) – New York Yankees
AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge is catching a solid price to launch his 27th home run of the season! Judge is absolutely blasting the ball out of the park without even breaking a sweat recently.
AARON JUDGE WINS THIS BATTLE.
TIE GAME. pic.twitter.com/JN9xw021cK— MLB (@MLB) June 14, 2025
Even for his standards, Judge’s five home runs in five ball games is an insane stretch. No. 99 is tied with the Mariners’ Cal Raleigh for the most long balls in Major League Baseball! Raleigh is having a fantastic season in his own right, but I think Judge will start to pull away by the All-Star Game.
Judge should remain hot against Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins in the batter’s box on Saturday. Dobbins has gotten tagged for three home runs over his last two starts. Also, note that Judge has belted a home run against Dobbins, needing just two at-bats to do so.
With this in mind, Judge is one of the best MLB home run bets Saturday!
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+475) – San Diego Padres
Another home run bet getting considerable value is in the Padres vs. Diamondbacks matchup at Chase Field. Fernando Tatis Jr. is likely to have the upper hand against the Diamondbacks in the desert this evening.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (13) – San Diego Padres
339 feet pic.twitter.com/zyUCdupUGN— MLB Home Run Clips (@HRClipsMLB) May 28, 2025
Tatis Jr. is hitting .264 with 13 home runs on the season. The 26-year-old ranks first on the Padres, leading Gavin Sheets by two long balls through 66 matchups. He’s also had success hitting against Diamondbacks’ starter Zac Gallen.
Gallen has conceded a .294 batting average and two long balls versus Gallen in 17 at-bats. Additionally, Gallen has been all out of form this season for the Snakes. The 29-year-old owns a 5.15 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 80.1 innings of work. He’s also gotten whacked for three home runs in his last two starts!
So, Tatis Jr. at +500 is a major value play as one of the best MLB HR picks today.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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