Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, August 19
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | +300 | Bovada |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +215 | Bovada |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | +375 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for August 19 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest best MLB betting sites‘ odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for August 19:
Juan Soto (+300) – New York Mets
Juan Soto is looking like one of the top power threats on Tuesday when the Mets meet the Nationals. The slugger has been in peak form since August 6, with five home runs in his last ten games, a stretch that has reminded everyone why he is the centerpiece of New York’s lineup.
Juan Soto raises the apple with his 29th homer of the season! 🍎 pic.twitter.com/cPwbm68sZ4
— MLB (@MLB) August 14, 2025
His season totals speak for themselves at 30 homers and 71 RBIs, both of which underscore his ability to flip a game with one swing.
The matchup sets up nicely against Washington starter Jake Irvin. Soto already has one long ball off him in just six at-bats, and given the way his swing is dialed in right now, that familiarity is significant.
With his power numbers pacing the Mets and his recent surge at the plate, Soto ranks as one of the most appealing home run prop bets on the board. At +300, the value matches the momentum.
Aaron Judge (+215) – New York Yankees
Aaron Judge is in prime position to leave the yard Tuesday night against the Rays, and at +215, his home run prop offers solid value. Judge is in the thick of the AL MVP race and has been swinging with purpose, looking to edge out Cal Raleigh as the season winds down.
All Rise. pic.twitter.com/gxtvjcocTV
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) August 17, 2025
He enters the matchup slashing .333 with 39 home runs in 114 games, including two bombs over his last five appearances. The power has been steady, and the matchup favors another deep shot. Judge has already taken Shane Baz deep and owns a .375 average in eight career at-bats against the right-hander.
With Baz still working his way back into rhythm and Judge pushing hard down the stretch, this spot sets up well for New York’s slugger to make another MVP statement. Back Judge to go yard in Florida.
Jose Ramirez (+375) – Cleveland Guardians
Jose Ramirez looks like a strong home run pick when the Guardians visit the Diamondbacks. The switch-hitting star has been a steady force in Cleveland’s lineup all season with a .290 average and 25 home runs, numbers that have quietly kept him in the AL MVP conversation.
José Ramírez rockets one out for home run No. 24 🚀 pic.twitter.com/utQNo9QThc
— MLB (@MLB) August 12, 2025
His combination of contact and power makes him dangerous in any matchup, but this particular spot stands out. Ramirez owns a favorable history against Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez, already tagging him for three homers in 27 career at-bats.
Rodriguez has not been able to keep the ball in the park lately with 20 home runs surrendered in 21 starts and four allowed across his last four appearances.
That trend pairs perfectly with Ramirez’s ability to punish mistakes. At +375, the odds present solid value for a hitter who matches up well with the pitcher and carries legitimate pop from both sides of the plate.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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