Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, September 18
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | +375 | Lucky Rebel |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | +350 | Lucky Rebel |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +195 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for September 18 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest best MLB betting sites‘ odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for September 18:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+375) – Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +375 to hit a home run is a sharp value play in Thursday’s matchup against the Rays. The power-hitting first baseman draws a favorable showdown with Shane Baz, who’s struggled to keep the ball in the yard.
Guerrero already owns Baz in a small sample, hitting .385 with a homer in 13 career at-bats. That success isn’t fluky, as Baz has been shaky all year with a 5.15 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, and his recent form hasn’t been much better. He’s allowed 26 home runs over 157.1 innings, including five long balls over his last five starts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. goes to the opposite field for his 21st career home run against the Yankees 😳 pic.twitter.com/IfKeoFuzed
— MLB (@MLB) September 6, 2025
With the game at Tropicana Field and Guerrero swinging confidently, he stands out as the most dangerous bat in the lineup. Considering his history against Baz and the starter’s HR issues, Guerrero is one of the HR bets today at +375.
Agustin Ramirez (+350) – Miami Marlins
Agustin Ramirez at +350 to hit a home run is one of the top power props on the board Thursday, especially with the game at Coors Field. The ball flies in Denver, and Ramirez is the kind of hitter who can fully exploit that.
He’s already mashed 21 homers across 126 games this season and has been red-hot in the second half, including three bombs since August 31. His power surge couldn’t come at a better time, as he now faces a struggling Tanner Gordon, who’s having a nightmare stretch on the mound.
MIA – Agustín Ramírez 2-run HR (21)
📏 422 ft | 💨 100.8 mph | 📐 30°
⚾️ 85.4 mph changeup (COL – RHP Roansy Contreras)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 MLB parksMIA (7) @ COL (3)
🔺 8th#MarlinsBeisbol pic.twitter.com/9iPNz3fovx— MLB Home Runs🚀 (@MLBHRs_) September 18, 2025
Gordon brings a bloated 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP into the start and has coughed up four home runs in his last two appearances alone. Coors Field is unforgiving to pitchers, especially those already leaking home runs, and Ramirez profiles as the bat most likely to capitalize.
With form, matchup, and altitude all working in his favor, Ramirez at +350 is a strong swing for value.
Aaron Judge (+195) – New York Yankees
Aaron Judge at +195 to hit a home run is a premium play in Thursday’s slate as he faces off against struggling left-hander Cade Povich. The Yankees slugger already owns Povich, having gone deep once in just two career at-bats, and the matchup sets up perfectly for another long ball.
Povich enters with a 5.05 ERA and has been tagged for five home runs across his last four starts. That’s trouble when you’re going up against the league’s top power threat. Judge is swinging like an MVP down the stretch, slashing .329 with 48 homers on the year, including five in his last nine games.
Aaron Judge hits a homer OUT OF FENWAY 😳 pic.twitter.com/cNvOHHcUdZ
— MLB (@MLB) September 12, 2025
With his timing locked in and Povich serving up mistakes, Judge is well-positioned to leave the yard again. Even at shorter odds, +195 carries solid value considering his form, power ceiling, and prior success against the Orioles’ lefty.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
-
We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
-
The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
-
The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
-
Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
-
If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
Click to Contact Kyle
You must be logged in to comment. Don't have an account? Sign up today.