Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, April 30
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | +250 | Bovada |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +275 | Bovada |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +475 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for April 30 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for April 30:
Marcell Ozuna (+250) – Atlanta Braves
The balls should be flying out of the yard at Coors Field on Wednesday afternoon! With Chase Dollander on the bump for the Rockies, expect the Braves to take full advantage of his meatballs.
Dollander heads into today’s start with an ERA of 7.91 and a 1.71 WHIP. The rookie is off to a rough start to his Major League career. It’s trial by fire at the moment for the 23-year-old University of Tennessee product.
In addition to the shoddy ERA, Dollander has been giving up deep bombs on the regular! The pitcher has conceded eight home runs in just four starts across 19.1 innings. Expect Dollander to eventually settle in, but it may require a trip down to the minors if things don’t improve.
Look for Marcell Ozuna to capitalize on a mistake or two from the Rockies’ starter in Denver. While Dollander doesn’t have any history against Ozuna, he is likely to fall victim to his power at Coors Field. Ozuna has hit five home runs and recorded a .295 batting average heading into Wednesday.
Marcell Ozuna delivers the #walkoff homer in the 11th inning to win it for the @Braves! pic.twitter.com/fzLqMZ6GRX
— MLB (@MLB) April 11, 2025
He was held off the stat sheet yesterday, but I’m positive that Ozuna responds against Dollander! So, I suggest backing him for your MLB home run props today.
Austin Riley (+275) – Atlanta Braves
In addition to Ozuna, Braves’ third baseman Austin Riley should get into the act at Coors Field. Dollander should get hit hard, and it’s unlikely to get any better after he exits the contest.
The Rockies’ bullpen ranks in the bottom quarter of the Majors with 12 home runs allowed. While they got away without giving up a long ball in yesterday’s matchup, that’s unlikely to stay the same on Wednesday.
Riley ranks second on the Braves with six home runs this season. He’s having a solid season with a .287 average and .475 SLG% at the dish.
This baseball was absolutely crushed 😳
Austin Riley's second homer of the game goes 444 feet! pic.twitter.com/CECvPs2AFA
— MLB (@MLB) April 15, 2025
Last year, the 28-year-old Memphis native belted 19 home runs in an injury-shortened 110-game season. He’s well on pace to eclipse that number and get back to the 37 long balls from 2023.
I like Riley to get the deep ball working at Coors Field, so consider backing him for your MLB home run props today!
Gunnar Henderson (+475) – Baltimore Orioles
After getting blasted by the Yankees, 15-3, the Orioles will look for better results at Camden Yards tonight! The offense should at least be in stronger shape with Carlos Carrasco expected to receive the starting assignment for the Yankees.
The pitcher enters the matchup with an ERA of 5.26 and a 1.36 WHIP through six starts. He’s gotten hammered for five home runs in 25.2 innings on the mound. I don’t expect any improvements for Carrasco on the bump versus Gunnar Henderson.
Gunnar Henderson – Baltimore Orioles (3)
pic.twitter.com/K5YMxwcGsX— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) April 30, 2025
The O’s shortstop has recorded a .600 batting average and a home run versus Carrasco in six at-bats. Henderson has gotten off to a relatively slow start this season, but he was able to swat his third home run of the year last night.
With Carrasco struggling to get into form, Henderson has a good chance to make it a long ball in back-to-back matchups. At +475 odds, he’s one of the best home run bets tonight.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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