2025 NFL Passing Leader Odds: Can Mahomes Win?

2025 NFL Passing Leader Odds: Can Mahomes Win?

The NFL passing leader odds before the 2024-25 season favor Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ QB is attempting to become the first QB to lead a team to three consecutive Super Bowl wins, so his motivation will be off the charts.

However, the competition will be strong for this one. I analyze the odds of the top NFL betting sites, the main favorites, and a few sleepers before sharing my predictions for most passing yards in the upcoming campaign.

NFL 2025 Passing Leader Odds

Check out the table below to see the latest odds to lead the NFL in passing yards, courtesy of BetUS Sportsbook.

QuarterbackNFL Passing Yard Leader OddsTotal Passing Yards Last Year
Patrick Mahomes+5504,183 yards (6th)
CJ Stroud+6004,108 yards (8th)
Dak Prescott+6004,516 yards (3rd)
Jared Goff+7004,575 yards (2nd)
Tua Tagovailoa+7004,624 yards (1st)
Joe Burrow+9002,309 yards (25th)
Matthew Stafford+12003,965 yards (11th)
Kirk Cousins+12002,331 yards (24th)
Jordan Love+14004,159 yards (7th)
Josh Allen+16004,306 yards (4th)

Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite to lead the league in passing this season at +550 odds. He led the league in passing in the 2022-2023 season but finished sixth last year. CJ Stroud and Dak Prescott are tied for the second-best 2024 NFL passing leader odds at +600 each.

With so many QBs below the +1000 mark, the bookies expect a tight race for this one. You can make good money even from the favorites.

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Favorites to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2024-25

The NFL is a passing league, but only one quarterback can claim the passing yards crown. Let’s take a closer look at the current top contenders based on the latest NFL most passing yards odds.

Patrick Mahomes (+550)

    • Team: Kansas City Chiefs
    • Age: 28 years old
    • Passing yards last season: 4,183 yards (6th)

Patrick Mahomes is widely regarded as the best quarterback in the league, but he was limited by a lack of weapons last year. Based on the current 2024-2025 NFL passing yard leader odds, Mahomes is due for a bounce back season. He is listed as the +550 favorite to lead the league in passing yards. However, achieving this feat will be easier said than done.

Despite his passing prowess, Mahomes has only led the league in passing just once. He will be limited once again by a lackluster receiving corps, especially if Rashee Rice is suspended for off-the-field issues.

The odds for Mahomes are not high enough, so there are better bets available.

CJ Stroud (+600)

    • Team: Houston Texans
    • Age: 22 years old
    • Passing yards last season: 4,108 yards (8th)

Two quarterbacks who play in the Lone Star State are tied for the second-best odds to lead the NFL in passing yards during the 2024-2025 season. The first is Texans’ quarterback CJ Stroud, who racked up 4,108 yards last year as a rookie.

The Texans added multiple new weapons on offense this offseason, including wide receiver Stefon Diggs. If he can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, then Stroud should be a top contender for the passing yards title this season.

If he can build on the 4,108 years recorded last season, the QB will definitely fight for the crown. He has more than enough options to work with, so I expect big things from Stroud and the Texans.

Dak Prescott (+600)

    • Team: Dallas Cowboys
    • Age: 30 years old
    • Passing yards last season: 4,516 yards (3rd)

The other Texas-based quarterback listed at 6-1 odds to lead the league in passing yards is Dak Prescott. He will turn 31 this summer and will likely enter the season in the last year of his contract with the Cowboys. If Prescott can lead the NFL in passing yards, he will silence many doubters and earn a massive contract.

However, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, Prescott’s best receiving option, also needs a new contract and could sit out. Without Lamb on the field, Prescott will have to rely on veteran journeyman WR Brandin Cooks and a host of unknown receivers. That could help his NFL MVP odds, but it would also hurt his ability to be the top passer in the league this season.

Jared Goff (+700)

    • Team: Detroit Lions
    • Age: 29 years old
    • Passing yards last season: 4,575 yards (2nd)

Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa were the top two passers in the league last year. The pair are tied for the fourth-best 2025 NFL passing yard leader odds.

Goff has passed for at least 4.400 yards in four of the last six seasons. The only exceptions were his last year in LA and his first year in Detroit. The Lions have done an uncharacteristically good job of surrounding Goff with offensive talent, leading to an NFC Championship Game appearance last season.

Goff should have enough protection and multiple good targets in the upcoming campaign, so don’t underestimate him.

Tua Tagovailoa (+700)

    • Team: Miami Dolphins
    • Age: 26 years old
    • Passing yards last season: 4,624 yards (1st)

Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa won the passing yards crown last year. He racked up 4,624 yards, beating out Goff by fewer than 50 yards. Oddsmakers have Tua tied with Goff at 7-1 odds to lead the NFL in passing yards again this season.

Tua has plenty of offensive weapons to work with, including wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The issue with wagering on Tua in this futures market is his health. Tua has struggled with injuries dating back to his days at Alabama, and his concussion issues nearly led to his retirement from the NFL.

It’s hard to back a player that might miss multiple games, so I’m not a fan of the passing leader odds for Tua.

Sleepers for Most Passing Yards

The quarterbacks above are all worthy favorites in the preseason 2024-2025 NFL passing yard leader odds. However, you never know who will explore and deliver the goods. Here are three sleepers that could challenge the big guns.

  1. Caleb Williams was the first overall selection in the 2024 NFL draft. Few quarterbacks have the hype surrounding them that the former USC Trojan will have to deal with. Luckily, the Bears have surrounded Williams with plenty of offensive talent, including DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze.

    The current rookie passing yards record is 4,374 yards, set by Andrew Luck in the 2012-2013 season. Williams will likely need to break that record, and by quite a bit, to lead the whole league in passing. He would also need to become the first quarterback in Bears’ history to pass for more than 4,000 yards in a single season.

  2. Another intriguing sleeper pick for this wager is LA Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The former Oregon Duck has passed for at least 4,300 yards in three of his four NFL seasons. He threw for 3,134 yards in 13 games last season before suffering a season-ending injury.

    Herbert will have to overcome a lack of weapons and a new, run-heavy offense to lead the league in passing. If teams sell out to stop head coach Jim Harbaugh’s run-based system, then Herbert should be able to carve up opposing defenses.

  3. Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson won his second MVP award last year. However, he had just 3,678 yards passing, a career-best despite being the 15th-most in the NFL. Jackson’s skills as a runner and Baltimore’s lack of receiving talent have limited the quarterback’s passing totals thus far in his career.

    Lamar has improved as a passer over the years, and the best way to silence his critics is to continue to do so. It is a longshot, but if Lamar can take another step forward, the two-time league MVP could add the first passing title of his career to his resume.

NFL Most Passing Yards Prediction and Pick

A quarterback needs to be a proficient passer and have sufficient weapons around them to lead the league in passing. The player who best fits that description this season is Houston quarterback CJ Stroud.

Stroud had the eighth-most passing yards in the league as a rookie last season. With the addition of WR Stefon Diggs and a good receiving RB in Joe Mixon, I think Stroud can lead the NFL in passing this year.

The Bet
CJ Stroud
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About the Author
Shaun Stack profile picture
Shaun Stack
Shaun Stack has authored dozens of casino blogs and joined our team in 2022. He enjoys playing any casino game but is particularly fond of Blackjack and Texas Hold'em. Also, he likes betting on sports, especially the NFL. Shaun is a native of Kansas City, but now lives in Pennsylvania and is an avid PA sports fan.

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